The fact Harris is almost even is still significant if the election is a hundred days away. I am willing to accept that on balance, she is generally a couple clicks behind in the polls. This does not matter much at the moment.
If Harris were to win Texas she would also win a number of other unlikely states; states are not entirely independent events. That would make it fairly likely Harris would also win Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. But she will not win Texas. That is crazy improbable.
The latest Reuters poll shows Harris 2 points ahead, not four. 2 points ahead is at best a coin flip for Harris. I believe you are referring to a July 22 poll. Their July 26 poll held a two point gap. That’s not good news for Harris. That’s the margin that happened in 2016.
Don’t fall prey to “None of my friends voted for Nixon, so how did he win?” trap. The EVIDENCE shows a neck and neck race, and that Trump’s support is incredibly solid. There is no evidence of a landslide being possible (it might once have been vaguely possible TRUMP could win by a lot, but I think that chance is long gone.) Trumpists - this is demonstrated truth - do not care if he’s convicted of crimes. Televised debates rarely make much of a difference.
The Democrats will get a bump with the convention but those go away.
The wild card I guess is what RFK Jr support does, and who it helps. There is some evidence his popularity is waning, which is unsurprising - the arrival of Harris over Biden means a lot of people see a decent alternative to the old guys, which is clearly good for Harris. And it’s generally unsurprising that the closer the vote gets, the less people are willing to vote for a third party candidate. On the other hand if RFK Jr has any coherent place on the political spectrum it’s probably closer to the Democratic Party and of course his name suggests that.
At about 40%, no?
More than that of the people who turned out in 2022, maybe. The question is, who’s going to show up this year?
That’s a great question, because 2020 was a super high turnout year. Will that happen again? I don’t know.
This started a hijack and isn't really on topic anyway {WE?}
I’ve said for many years that if all the people in the USA who don’t turn up to vote all turned up and voted the same way, they could elect pretty much anybody they pleased.
Of course, if they did all turn up in the same year, they wouldn’t all vote the same way; there are multiple reasons why people don’t vote.
Trump was 8 points ahead in the last polls. That is not “crazy” improbable. Its not likely (Trump winning the presidency is far more likely) but overcoming an 8 point margin in three months when you have a popular young candidate running against an geriatric obviously declining felon is possible.
So this was what the polls showed before Biden dropped out. But all the polls I’ve seen since then have shown Trump doing worse when RFK is included. Which actually makes more sense, the GOP went out their way to co-opt that “bonkers anti-vax” demographic that used to definitely trend to the left.
And for people not paying attention but wanting “somebody younger” – RFK Jr may have “Junior” in his name, but he’s 70. That’s younger than Trump and Biden, all right; but it’s older than Harris.
If you sweep the swing states through Nevada then you get to 311 vs 217. I’d be claiming that a blow out. I do not expect it and will be thrilled with a narrow electoral win as long as it is a win. But it is nice to dream!
This assumes the polls are accurate. Recent special election polls have almost uniformly underestimated Democratic performance, sometimes by 10 points or more. And Trump’s primary performance significantly under-performed his polls. It’s very possible that there’s something wrong with recent polling that’s systemically under-counting anti-Trump voters. No way to know until the actual election.
Yeah this is where I stand too. But in poker odds it’s a full house I’m dreaming of not a royal flush, sure it’s more likely to go on Jack high, but a full house is possible.
I think poker is a better analogy than NFL (though the metaphor does break down fairly quickly). Confidence, even if it doesn’t exactly match the odds you are playing, is a good way to win. If you bet with enough enthusiasm to convince the other guy to throw in, it doesn’t matter what cards you have.
I think enthusiasm can help either side. Trump’s favorability ratings are higher than in 2020. I do think that we may see an end to Harris’ honeymoon period and a drop in enthusiasm for her. However, since Trump would be expected to get at least a minimal bump from the convention and assassination attempt, any shift at all toward Harris is probably underestimated.
I do see opportunities to keep the enthusiasm going with the official nomination, the VP selection and the convention as well as possible debates and possible Trump sentencing.
2 posts were merged into an existing topic: Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election
trumps support in Florida has been slipping, Last time I checked he had only a 6% lead.
Off-topic reply hidden by WE?
Just about- only about 70% of voters bother to vote- they certainly could tip any elections, but they could not elect a 3rd part.
Summary
Some third party candidates have pulled enough of a percentage that if they’d also gotten all the nonvoters it would have put them over.
But again, the chances that all the nonvoters would vote for the same candidate are, to put it mildly, poor. Probably at least as slim as the chances that they’ll all show up for the same election.
Moderating: Congrats, you’ve gone well off-topic here. Drop it please or start a new thread.
If you are responding to something in a thread that is basically off-topic or likely to lead to a hijack, try this:
How to Reply as a linked Topic:
Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, looks like a curving arrow point to the right.
Choose Reply as linked topic and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it.
That is actually the best method.
Another wild card is Trump’s sentencing hearing. It’s damn near impossible for me to predict how that will affect enthusiasm for either candidate.
So you think the sentencing hearing is really gonna happen?
I say this in all seriousness: who the fuck knows about anything anymore?
@What_Exit – whoops, sorry!