It definitely needs to start with ‘I am voting for her’, rather than ‘I am not voting for her’. As @ThelmaLou stated.
And also this:
It has now been nearly two weeks since Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris as his presumptive replacement as Democratic nominee. Unsurprisingly, Harris got a quick bounce in the polls as the new, younger, and fresher rival to Donald Trump. But now it’s becoming clear this was a trend, not just a momentary bounce.
According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling averages, Harris is leading Trump by 1.4 percent (45.0 to 43.6 percent), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.6 percent. When Biden dropped out, he was trailing in the same averages by 3.2 percent. In a contest as static as the 2024 presidential race had been, that’s a big swing.
Thanks for that article. As I frequently rant, no single poll is meaningless, and early polls do not predict the race. However, trends are usually meaningful and that trend line is everything the Democrats could hope for.
The trend lines in national polls are equally telling. YouGov/Economist tested Harris against Trump back on July 16, showing Trump leading by five percent (44 to 39 percent). Then on July 23, after Biden’s withdrawal, the same pollster had Trump leading Harris by three percent (44 to 41 percent). On July 30 YouGov/Economist showed Harris leading Trump by two percent (46 to 44 percent).
The Economist has used the earlier polls to predict a huge loss for Biden. The next issue should have them do a 180. Journalists have to say something in every issue. Most of it is therefore blather to fill space.
The way she wrote it would give it the benefit of drawing in the type of people who are not going to vote for Harris due to the fact that she is a woman. I would like to think that having such a person read such an essay would be more beneficial to the campaign than those of us who would agree with the sentiment “I am not voting for her just because she is a woman.”
I am going to assume her circle of Southern Baptist friends and acquaintances might need to be drawn in by the misleading first sentence.
So Thelma Lou’s original critique of the first sentence is valid, it lacked the word “just”. I knew exactly what she meant because she is my cousin, I’ve known her since I was 2. But I think it is clear what she meant to anyone who read past that first sentence. BTW I wasn’t seriously suggesting she should write for the campaign.
I think my point was lost. Not all Bible-believing Christians support Trump, he has lost some support. And his entire strategy seems to be to increase turnout among his base. He has done niothing to increase it amoung mainstream voters. He had something like 90% support among Republicans last time. He won’t get it this time.
This is a fun twist:
On Sunday, the “Harris for President” campaign announced “Republicans for Harris,” a program designed to “further outreach efforts to the millions of Republican voters who continued to reject the chaos, division, and violence of Donald Trump and his Project 2025 agenda.”
“Republicans for Harris” is the new revitalized version of “Republicans for Biden” which has been faltering because of disillusionment with Biden. But now, according to CNN, the movement has been tremendously re-energized:
… outreach to these Republicans had become difficult as confidence in Biden spiraled after his dismal debate performance …
But the Democratic energy around the switch to Harris is now reaping benefits, aides say.
“There’s a lot of excitement, because I think people were feeling unsure of where things were going, and now they are all on board,” said Austin Weatherford, a onetime chief of staff to former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois. Weatherford had just started gearing up with the Republicans for Biden effort in June when the race took a turn.
Weatherford told CNN that while Biden was “providing the alternative” on the topic of preserving democracy, “now people just see it more clearly. They feel it more clearly.”
Today I drove past two electronic billboards, in Delaware County Pennsylvania, with rotating Republicans for Harris messages. They featured photos of white men who supposedly voted for Trump before, but no more.
Maybe the supposed campaign experts ran each ad by a focus group, but I’m skeptical. Every lazy (in the sense of not always voting) Trump supporter, driving by, is being annoyed, and thus incentivized to vote. I think it would be impossible to predict which candidate is more helped by the billboards, Harris or Trump.
Harris doesn’t need enthusiasts. Given the electoral college skew, she may need a majority.
Considering how the last presidential election went, any Democratic candidate probably needs to beat the Republican by at least 4% in the popular vote in order to even just draw level in the Electoral College.
Harris should not be comfortable with any lead of, say, less than 6%.
As far as those folks go-forgive, but never forget.
Harris is going to have hundreds of Republican endorsements before long. Not national household names or anything, but often people known at their local level.
Vice President Kamala Harris is adding a group of unlikely allies to her reelection campaign: Arizona Republicans.
Mesa Mayor John Giles will co-chair a new Arizona Republican task force for Harris, the vice president’s campaign announced Sunday. He’ll lead the group with former GOP state Rep. Robin Shaw.
“As a lifelong Arizonan and longtime Republican, I strongly believe in defending democracy and standing up for our personal freedoms. Donald Trump and JD Vance represent the greatest threat to American values and institutions that I have seen in my lifetime - and that’s why I am committed to defeating him in November,” Giles said in a written statement.
I was very happy to see the names of former IL Governor Jim Edgar and former NJ Governor Christine Todd Whitman on that list.
They were very Reaganite in outlook so apostates for the MAGAs. A couple of the last Republican office holders I can think of who were decent folks in my book though I disagreed with most of their positions.
I was expecting Bill Weld of MA to be there. 
I recently heard commentary on the whole “Republicans for XXXX” phenomenon. This notion isn’t new or unique to this campaign, of course, but the idea is that it provides a sort of permission structure for people who may still identify as Republican and want to continue to consider themselves such, but are so turned off by Trump that it they’ll vote for the Democrat in this instance.
My guess is Harris’ trajectory will continue upwards for at least another week before stabilizing. We’ve not had the convention yet, nor has a running mate been announced.
Plus, other than her relatively low-key VP duties, Harris hasn’t had much opportunity to establish herself yet as a presidential candidate. I think – and certainly hope – that there’s a tremendous amount of upside potential, not just (hopefully) from the VP pick and from the convention, but from Harris’ aggressively exuberant campaigning.
I was hoping she’d hold-off on the VP pick until after the Olympics. Mainly to play the headlines - right now the Olympics are taking-up much of the media, Harris enthusiasm is still climbing, and the Republicans are still shitting themselves as Harris goes on the offensive. I would like to keep riding this trend a bit longer - after the Olympics are over, announce the VP and command air time again, starving Trump of whatever attention he’ll be stirring up for himself.
It might have been a good idea, but she’s committed to announcing by tomorrow and I don’t see her backing off that. A delay allows a longer period for the media to do its own vetting, which in theory could turn up something they miss. But with the three finalists, I’m not too worried about about a bombshell out there.
Plus, there’s the Ohio ballot deadline to get the VP candidate on the ballot: August 7.
Harris doesn’t have the luxury of waiting for the ideal moment in the news cycle. She needs to get all-out on the business of campaigning right away, and that means having a running mate on the campaign trail ASAP.
As far as explaining the enthusiasm for Harris, I think it goes deeper than just being much younger than Biden. She has amazing energy and exuberance, and more charisma than I expected. It’s like the contrast between an energetic and enthusiastic young person versus what frankly looked like death warmed over. The difference is astonishing and it’s no surprise that Harris’ poll numbers are rising and the Trump campaign is running scared.
This. I think she’s playing the timing as well as she can.
I suspect those “Republicans for Harris” posters will help. I think she does need to be validated by conservative white men, to make fringe voters comfortable with her. And this seems like the right kind of venue for that.
Yeah, I dont buy that as that date is before the Dem Convention. What would happen if there were no clear leader, and it was up to the convention to choose?