Unexpected Enthusiasm for Harris?

Politics & Elections
427

Not just the white men, also white women. I’ve already anti-Harris posts on Facebook from my more conservative and/or religious relatives, both men and women. In contrast, I am also seeing posts from colleagues that supported Harris in 2020 and have already dug out their Harris for President t-shirts.

Before Biden dropped out, I thought Harris was relatively quiet and wouldn’t have drummed up much enthusiasm. Now that she’s in the spotlight, it seems there’s a lot of enthusiasm, that just needed direction.

428

Black men. Here’s an opinion piece talking about where there might be a problem.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4800764-symbolism-wont-persuade-black-men-to-vote-for-harris-heres-what-will/

429

Polls over the last few days have the two candidates essentially even in popular vote, so technically Trump remains a narrow favourite.

We’ll see if Harris momentum nudges her numbers up a little.

430

Trump had already been losing some of white men support to Biden actually. Selling the economy is definitely key. And selling herself as fairly centrist too.

This overlaps with VP choice but the compare contrast of her choice with Vance, assuming a reasonably centrist one, and the thought of Vance stepping in, given Trump’s age, should sell to some of the more centrist white male voters as much as it does other groups.

431

Specifically young Black men according to 538.

432

My expectation is that Harris would win by a margin similar to how Biden won in 2020. Maybe a bit more. But far from a landslide.

I’m hoping that like 2020 it’s enough of a victory that there aren’t any lingering doubts about the result outside of conspiracy theorists.

433

More broadly it seems dems are doing better on their messaging:

Not even two weeks ago, J.D. Vance promised to boost the campaign’s funding and deliver a hokey, small-town family man who could speak to voters in rural America.

Instead, the entire Democratic Party apparatus has taken to calling him weird. Digital strategists, and the entire internet, are saying it’s about damn time.

434

I have trouble seeing how Trump’s recent attacks will win over minority groups or independent voters who have not yet decided who to vote for. But there are many things that I do not understand.

435

We can now quantify the enthusiasm gap with the July fundraising #s:

Harris: $310,000,000
Trump: $137,000,000
Enthusiasm Gap: $173,000,000

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/02/harris-campaign-fundraising-numbers-july-00172400

436

With respect, those numbers are for Trump, July 1-31, and for Harris, July 21-31 (plus Biden July 1-20). I think the financial enthusiasm gap might be even bigger.

437

This Grauniad article suggests some good news for Harris. (Free link below).

Kamala Harris’s campaign has brought in a staggering $310m in July, more than double the $137m that Donald Trump’s campaign raised last month, according to a new report.

On Friday, Politico reported that Harris’s campaign and other affiliated committees have $377m in cash on hand, marking a $50m advantage over Trump’s total funds of $327m.

Since her entry into the race following Joe Biden’s re-election bid withdrawal, Harris has galvanized Democrats across the country, with a new Associated Press poll revealing that about eight in 10 Democrats say they would be somewhat or very satisfied if she became the Democratic nominee for president.

Moreover, according to a new poll from the conservative group Competitiveness Coalition, Harris is leading Trump in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 48% to 45%, as well as 48% to 46% respectively. The two opponents are also tied 45% to 45% in the swing state of Michigan.

With Harris gaining momentum, the vice-president will travel to major swing states including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada over the course of five days next week for campaign events. Harris is expected to announce her running mate by Tuesday next week, with the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, the Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, the Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, the Kentucky governor, Andy Beshear, the Arizona senator Mark Kelly and transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, as reported finalists.

438

Don’t forget, a lot of Trump’s money is needed to pay civil judgments and criminal lawyers.

439

Doesn’t that usually come out of the “stiffing the contractors” fund?

440

Well, if you’re trying to motivate some border security voters to side with you, maybe you promise to work on passing the bill without mentioning that if the election goes right, that work will include modifying it.

441

My question is will donations to the Trump campaign slow down now that it’s Trump-Harris? I realize a lot, if not most, of the donations to his campaign are from small-dollar supporters, but will there be a turnaway from big money interests, like the ones who bailed on Biden.

442

I am going to paste below something my cousin just posted on Facebook. She is my age, 61, and was brought up as a Southern Baptist Christian, as I was. I no longer believe in Jesus, Etc but she still does. And this is what she wrote tonight-

I am not voting for her because she is a woman; however, being a woman brings to the table a unique perspective on bodily autonomy that men will never experience or completely understand. Those who have never been denied the right to work, vote, have sole control of their being or have to make a deeply personal decision about their health can never represent me or the women before me in totality no more than I can for a man.
*I am not voting for her because she is a minority; however, being a minority brings to the table a unique perspective that the majority will never experience or can completely understand. Those who are continually whether consciously or not, under scrutiny and judgement for the color of their skin, where they come from, the language they speak, the God they worship or even who they love. *
*I am voting for her because she represents my Democratic party and most beliefs as well as she is educated, she is compassionate, and she is the type of politician I want to see in office. *
While she is not perfect or more imperfect than another, she is the perfect candidate for me.

I replied to her post and told her that she should be writing for the Harris campaign. Southern Baptists for Harris!

443

Ye-e-e-es, but… the piece ends well with a great message, but the opening sentence is ambiguous, “I am not voting for her because she is a woman.” When I first read that, I didn’t know whether to take it literally that she’s not voting for Kamala because she’s a women (which is exactly what it says), and I was confused until she made her position clear. Best to say upfront, “This is why I’m going to vote for Kamala Harris,” and then launch into the bullet-pointed explanation/backup.

The old “tell 'em what you’re gonna tell 'em, tell 'em, then tell 'em watcha ya told 'em.” If there’s a way to misunderstand something, people will find it.

Carry on.

444

I thought the same thing. The opening line should have been something like
“I am voting for Kamala Harris not solely because she is a woman…”

445

Better would be- I am not voting for her just because she is a woman.

446

How about, “I am voting for her not because she is a woman”? That retains the sonority of the original but is less ambiguous.