But honestly, what did you expect? I don’t get how anyone but the delusional could be optimistic about this war with Trump and Hegseth making the decisions.
Israel’s goals are simple: to neutralize Iran’s ability and/or desire to wage direct or indirect war against us. Whether or not this is achievable is an open question.
It’s you guys that don’t have a goal.
Israel has been suffering through bad government for over 15 years now, but we still manage to operate with a baseline of competency during times of crisis. I guess we just assumed you’d be the same way.
Which is why as an American I said “we”, not “the US and Israel”.
The fundamental imbalance is obvious - skin in the game.
For Iran this is about regime survival so its obviously a good trade for them to try and hit America in the wallet. The blowback economic damage onlyvreally matters if it actually hits at their grip on power, which is the threat to them anyway.
The US is the actor with the lowest stakes and it takes Trump being dumb enough to not realize that Iran’s regime had more reason to dig in than we did.
No idea how Israel thought the US would avoid this quagmire.
Ha ha ha ha ha. You haven’t been following the US news much, have you?
More seriously, I think many of 2024’s R voters made the same incorrect assumption.
Moderating:
The is, for the moment, a gentle reminder to all. Most of you fine folk have been doing a good job of staying on topic and respecting the split. The last dozen or so have been drifting quite a bit, but not so much I’ll call anyone out. So reminder - Trump bashing should go in the pit (though evidence of no plans is frequent, evident, and allowed), who initiated (unless new info comes to light) is suited for the causation thread, and speculation on anything but the immediate future goes in that thread.
Again, respect the efforts, and I think at this time all you need is the reminder.
I hope it is no hijack to point out in the USA & Israel are bombing Iran thread that Iran has bombed Diego García (unsuccessfully). Diego Garcia is 4,000 km south of Iran, which means they could reach Europe if they fired in the other direction.
This has been duly pointed out by interested parties (as always, lazily translated with the help of DeepL).
Iranian state media portrayed the attack as proof of military strength. The Fars news agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, claimed that Iran could also reach Europe. Iran’s missile capabilities remain intact, it said, refuting US President Donald Trump’s claim that they had been 100 per cent destroyed.
The Iranians still have better targets than Europe, which is not even directly implicated in the war, but that could change.
Barely Moderating:
@Pardel-Lux, you’re fine, it’s a current and direct response by Iran to the attacks of both Israel and the USA. My prior note was about keeping some of the recent posts was about guiding discussions to the proper thread. Since there seems some confusion, I’ll quote @Aspenglow from upthread, where she laid out the specifics for the three threads after all the available P&E mods contributed:
Actions taken by Iran directly in response are therefore appropriate. The biggest division is chronological. What caused the attacks, what’s happening right now, what may happen in the future.
The latest update is that the countdown timer has started. Donald Trump says the strait better be open in 48 hours or he’s going to start “obliterating” Iran’s power plants…“starting with the biggest one first”.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-21-26
He has a golf game scheduled so Monday at the earliest.
I wonder if it’s possible that Israel’s leadership knows that U.S. support for Israel is decreasing, possibly permanently so, and that if so, this is Israel’s last chance to get America to do Israel a big military favor because the USA may never do something like this for/with Israel again, and that, hence, that may be a factor driving some Israeli government decisions and actions.
If only.
I apologize if this is better in the “repercussions” thread, but this is a direct response to a post here.
With the combined effect of lessening US posture internationally, enhancing China’s, and the potential impact of an opening bid of $200 billion while other factors bode ill for our economy - and unclear positives to result from ANY outcome, I’m not sure I would characterize the US’ stakes as “low.”
I think it’s more than just the regime, I think it’s existential.
Bear in mind that they had the JCPOA with the US first, and now were in the middle of negotiations which the mediators were saying was proceeding very well.
So regardless of regime, they are going to feel that cutting a deal is going to do nothing to prevent further / future bombing. That’s why they will throw everything at this and may not stop even as the US gets fatigued.
Before anyone jumps in and claims that of course Iran would be left alone if only they would hand in the uranium and stand down, I am purely talking about how the situation appears from the Iranian point of view. They would find that extremely implausible. I would as well, but that’s irrelevant.
Exactly, from their point of view the only way to survival is to extract so heavy a price on their enemies that they never feel tempted to try something like this again.
Not coincidentally, that’s Israel’s point of view, too.
Israel’s stakes are their survival as a state and the survival of most of their people. (I think they’re probably going about it the wrong way; but that’s what the stakes are.)
Iran’s stakes are their continuing to function as an independent country.
The USA’s stakes are indeed higher than I expect Trump thinks they are. But they’re not remotely in the same ballpark.
For authoritarian, supremacist regimes, this is probably all they can hope for, but it’s likely temporary at best (and can backfire if they don’t have overwhelming logistical/military advantages). For democratic governments that respect human rights, long term peace negotiation is the only way to long term peace and security.
That’s the argument the Israeli government appears to be making, sure. I’m certainly not convinced.