US Midterm Election watch along thread

ABC just called WI for Johnson (R). Not a surprise.

It’s now 49-48 GOP given that a Republican will win AK, we just don’t know which one.

NV, AZ and GA not yet called.

I can see him drowning his sorrows with tequila while he apathetically dips yet another limp asparagus spear in overpriced guacamole.

That doesn’t mean he can’t film a simple 30 second commercial. AFAIK he doesn’t suffer from dementia.

Democratic Rep Sean Maloney, who chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this cycle, lost his own race for reelection in New York.

Talk about good news/bad news - “Sean, you beat all expectations for Democrats in the House this election. Also, you’re fired.”

As I said before in this thread, if it is Murkowski she could act as a centralizing force a la Joe Manchin so the division may be fuzzier than the straight numbers. Speaking of that, any scenario where Manchin switches parties?

house at 186 D - 202 R per cnn.

I’m waiting to see the turnout percentage. I’m hoping this wasn’t a typical midterm.

The NY Dems shit the bed in general. One of the rare places where Reps overperformed.

For sure. Liberals should be strongly rooting for Murkowski and that is the most likely outcome.

Is there any evidence that Texas is getting bluer/more purple?

Should Democrats stop wasting money on Texas?

The TV says Georgia will go to a runoff.

Any current reporting on whether there is any mathematical/electoral chance of avoiding a runoff in Georgia? Obviously, Warnock could mathematically get over 50% if he wins all of the outstanding votes, but is there any breakdown anywhere of WHAT is outstanding and the likely/potential lean of those votes? Or is a runoff inevitable?

ABC news says that although NV is leaning red right now, the uncounted ballots are strongly blue and may be enough for a takeover. AZ is leaning blue right now but the uncounted ballots are leaning red but probably not enough for a takeover.

I know, and as an Ohioan, please permit me to apologize. You voted for Biden in 2020, too, while Trump did even better here than he had in 2016. Ugh ugh ugh.

I doubt it. He could but I assume he’d just get primaried out next time anyway. And he’d probably argue that he’s better off “moderating” the Democrats in power than giving the keys to a bunch of Republicans under Trump’s sway.

As a lifelong Texan, I can’t say that I see the state becoming any more blue. IMHO it’s not a matter of money. At the senate and gubernatorial level I think it would be better to take alot of the money spent on Texas (and Florida) and focus on states like Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and on shoring up Nevada. Unless a major realignment happens, Texas isn’t going to go blue in the foreseeable future, by which I mean decades rather than years.

Right. He gets to call a lot of shots in the current senate. If he were a Republican he would have to go along to get along. Any attempts at trying to stick out would result in his getting told something to the effect of “you’re a carpetbagging newcomer, why should we listen to you?”

New York is a perfect example of how Democrats shoot themselves in the foot by adopting “bipartisan commissions” to redistrict in states they control, while Republicans gleefully gerrymander in states they control (e.g.Florida).

My thought was if it is 50/50 and he trades parties for a powerful committee chairmanship. But that is tempered by the fact that he runs for re-election in 2024.

house now 187 D- 203 R, per cnn.

Manchin is already Chair of the Committee on Energy & Natural Resources which seems to be where he wants to be. And offering him something higher would mean kicking some dues-paying Republican down the chain.

I don’t appreciate Manchin’s mechanics (though I pragmatically realize that even Manchin being an ass is better than a Republican in his seat) but he has reliably voted for Democratic appointees, judges, etc and largely come through when it mattered. I can’t see him saying “I’d rather vote for the Republican stuff now” and it would be foolish to think that’ll help his political survival in a GOP primary. He’s better off staying Democratic and arguing for his “moderation”