There’s no possibility of 52 D, the most that could occur if Democrats hold NV and GA is 51 D. Both Sinema and Manchin are up for reelection in 2024 – there’s a good chance we’ll see how much more of a “nuisance” it is to have Republicans hold those seats.
WV, probably. AZ, I dunno. As Ohio and Florida have reddened, AZ by contrast has developed a purplish blush. It’s at least not a foregone conclusion.
^^^ This is the truth. I can’t imagine any D, including Manchin, winning in '24 in WV. I suppose the Rs could put up a candidate so batshit that it gets Manchin reelected but that appears to be a heavy lift. So that is likely 1 D-.
Sinema will be primaried by a less odious D for sure. It may be close or it may not. Again, depends on the candidate.
There’s been a lot of chatter about Representative Ruben Gallego (D) mounting a primary challenge to Sinema in 2024. Here’s an article from back in January, where he very carefully does not deny he might do it:
There’ve been similar articles since then.
Gallego won his district this week by 76%, which has increased the speculation:
Gallego is sharp, and I think he could pull it off.
Or, ya know, the Ds could help them out with that lift - select and emerge that candidate for the Rs, like they did this time around in a few areas.
I’m going to guess that it’s more likely Manchin will be primaried by someone more liberal. Who would then definitely lose the general.
Thanks for that. Sounds like a good person and someone who would be a better Senator.
In West Virg I would not take that chance.
Yeah, the place/time to do that is when the candidate you’d pick has little chance of winning. WV is pretty MAGA-heavy.
Heh - if I could’ve retracted that call.
Bleak.
That would be an enormous mistake. Manchin is about as liberal as you could get out of WV. I’d love to see more Manchins - in places like Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio.
Maybe (I know nothing about him), but would he be a better general election candidate in Arizona? I’ll take Sinema’s posturing over forfeiting a Senate seat to the Rs any day.
Mark Kelly won with a decent margin, and he’s a very solid and reliable Democratic Senator.
Sinema is not. We can win in Arizona with a solid Democrat. Hopefully we get one. Sinema sucks and, unlike Manchin, we can do much better in that state.
In WA-03 Gluesenkamp Perez (D) is still ahead +1.7 vs. Kent (R) with (I think) about 91% of the ballots counted. The 70% count reported by some news outlets is not accurate, I believe. Would be a surprise flip if she holds out and wins.
I’ve thought the same thing for a while now. Democrats need to become a big tent party. There should be room for Joe Manchin and AOC in the party, without them getting attacked for their politics by fellow Democrats other than in a primary. If they (or any other conservative or ultraliberal Democrat) do something that’s actually wrong, by all means criticize them, but let them and the people of their district / state have their politics. Trying to enforce a one size fits all situation may have cost Democrats the House, assuming AOC is right about why those 4 house seats in New York flipped.
Ohio? Ohio’s other U.S. Senator is Sherrod Brown, a very old school liberal, one of the most solid liberals in the Senate. I would call him the political heir to someone like Howard Metzenbaum. Ohio is not demographically a hard R state. It has been gerrymandering to within an inch of its life and Republican supermajorities are passing laws that are not at all popular.
Are you kidding?
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Become a big tent party? The Democrats have been a big tent party basically since they came into existence and they have never stopped being that.
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Manchin has single handedly frozen the majority of the legislative agenda of the president, Senate, and House, all controlled by his own party.
Manchin has been in the driver’s seat for the last two years. He needs no favors from the rest of the party.
Every statewide office in Ohio went Republican by strong majorities. That has nothing to do with gerrymandering. Ohio is a red state getting redder. Brown has resisted the tide through a strong personal political brand, but if he retires that seat is gone.
Strong majorities are not the 70-30 majorities that the Republicans hold in the state legislature and the U.S. House delegation. That is all due to gerrymandering. Voters vote on average 45-47 percent Democratic in the aggregate. That is not a West Virginia conservative state. The Republicans that win the widest are people like Gov. DeWine, who is a Liz Cheney type Republican.