My roomate and I were talking about various geopolitical issues earlier tonight when after about thirty minutes or so, we started discussing Cuba, Communism, the US’ policies towards both and how America might react to the eventual death of Cuba’s communist leader, Fidel Castro.
Neither of us really had any idea what might happen but I was intrigued enough to start this topic and hope that some of you might know enough to give us an idea as to what would occur when Fidel finally passes on.
It would instantly offer Cuba statehood. With the stability the US could offer the region, I would propose that tourism and tobacco could solve the island’s economic woes in short order.
I bet the US has plans set up… the newspapers already have a biography ready to set up in their homepages for several aging personalities: Including the pope and Castro.
So no reason, but incompetence, for them not to be ready. I doubt invasion scenarios or direct influencing… but I bet they will try their outmost to start well with the new govt. (or they should IMHO). We never know with Bush though.
Is it just me or are you guys thinking the reaction will be a collective, “oh really?” That’s too bad…you know, kind of like a minor celebrity death at the Oscars(half-hearted applause) Fidel hangs out with freakin’ Dan"what’s the frequency Kenneth" Rather, not really the fearless agitator of the Missle Crisis days, but he had a good run.
" bet the US has plans set up… "
What US involvement? Dosen’t Fidel’s second in command just step in and take the throne, beard, fatigues and fine cigar?
Castro will simply be replaced by whoever isnext in line. If there is no next in line, there may be some infighting.
Same as it is in any nation where a dictator dies.
If Castro was a little less evil, like Pinochet, he’d set things up so there would be democracy when he got to old to rule. But Castro seems committed to living forever and ruling forever, so it looks like Cuba will be caught with their pants down when he finally kicks it.
Isn’t his brother Raoul next in line? The trouble with being a dictator is that you don’t dare designate a successor as they start plotting against you.
I know a few Cuban-Americans, and they’re all just waiting for El Viejo to die. Nobody seems scared of Raoul and everyone is thinking the country will just open up after Fidel’s gone. It’ll be a legal mess with the refugees trying to get their property back and all, but it’ll be nice for people like me to finally be able to visit Cuba with a clear conscience.
Unfortunately, he seems to be like Arafat, one of those old dudes who lives forever and ruins people’s lives right and left.
Are you whacked? They’d never accept. And in any event, they’d have to be a territory first.
If Fidel Castro dies.
My predictions:
The flags of 98% of Latin American countries will fly at half-mast for the prescribed period of mourning.
The flags of 75% of European countries will do likewise.
The Heads of State of nearly all third world sewage farms will attend his funeral obsequies.
The political leadership personages of about 80% of the countries on this planet will say a lot of incredibly nice things about the worthless tyrant, except to praise him for his most beneficial achievement for humanity. Dropping dead.
All of the TV commentators in the US of A will dress in black (Including Fox).
Sez who? Texas was never a territory. I do agree it’ll never happen.
The U.S. governments reaction would be pressure like you’ve never seen before to change the system of government in Cuba, driven largely by the politically infuential bloc in Florida that has never set foot in Cuba.
Damn, I thought he had died and I somehow missed it. :mad:
I wonder if Cuba could be purchased outright, like the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska? How about we (the US gov.) buy out Castro and have somebody we support to be El Presidente?
Hmmm, on second thought, isn’t that how we got folks into power like Hussein, Bin Laden, Hitler and Bush?
His brother, Rauol, will take over and be Castro Lite(that sounds like a soda). Rauol may not create as much fear simply because he is not Castro. I see attempts to begin a civil war/revolution as Dissidents start guerilla warfare against local Communist officials. They would be crushed by a better, more organized military. From here it could become a military dictatorship, like Haiti, or continue the status quo of Communism.
Or Rauol would be weak-willed, to the US’s, UN’s, and Europe’s advantage, and slowly allow the free market to take over and end up like China, with a huge difference between the rich and the poor. Tourism and Tabacco would be the biggest industries.
Cuba would never join the US. Despite everything that happens, Cubans still want to be their own country.
That spelling just looks awful. The correct spelling is Raúl
He is Castro. He is Raul Castro. He is not Fidel though which I think is what you mean.
I cannot see any smooth way for Cuba towards democracy. There is too much animosity between both sides.
Then he’ll be sued by the Miller beer company for use of their product name, go broke, and someone else will take over.
I wish the smack smiley were still here. I didn’t know the spelling of Raul’s name, but I know that Castro is the family name. I did mean Fidel. I know better. :o
What are both sides? Is it America and Cuba, or Cuban Communists and Cuban Democrats?
Whoever consolidates power next will make some show of renouncing communism as a state ideology, but the political reality won’t really change due to that. Instead, it will be due to an effort to get the US embargo lifted and ease public pressure that might exist on a new-to-power autocrat. Let’s not kid ourselves; the embargo is a visceral reaction to the person of Castro and the name “communism” - there are plenty of places with worse governments that are not restricted from trade in any way.
The day after that speech, McDonald’s will announce a groundbreaking, Carnival Cruise Lines will dock a megaship in Havana, the cigars and baseball players will start flooding in, and the island will be open for business. I don’t doubt that all kinds of business deals have already been struck and are waiting to be activated at a moment’s notice. Oh, and the Miami expat community will have to find another reason to go on living - which is a good thing by itself.
I had to think about that for a moment but come to think about it both things seem to be, if not exactly the same, at least very much linked. The Cubans and the Cuban-Americans (who condition US policy) hate each other’s guts to the point of making any settlement pretty impossible.
I suppose they could be coerced to make nice but it’s going to be very difficult.
Floridas national guard will probably go on high alert , the navy will flood the carribean with lots of ships and airplanes , to discourage a possible flood of boat people.
Brother Raul , who heads Cuba’s gestapo will take over , but i am gonna guess that the catholic church is gonna basically take a leading role in what becomes of Cuba.
Some people I know were discussing the Popes visit to cuba several years back , and one of the delicate topics was what happens afterwards.
Declan
What? 
I second **what ElvisL1ves ** said. You just know that the major players have contingency plans all primed and ready. Raul will not be able to hold things together like Fidel, and the floodgates will open. You will see the expats running back to declare civil war, and the big corporations licking their chops at a whole new country to McDonaldize. There will be some fortunes made very quickly, and some lost just as quickly.
If Raul is smart, he will invite major investment in tourism, and set Havana up as the Caribbean Atlantic City. Major flashback to the 50’s, only without Meyer Lansky. 
Meyer Lansky’s heirs (spiritual if not genetic) have a contingency plan set up too. Bank on it.