US transfers sovereignty to Iraqi government. What now?

[pervert]

@BrainGlutton

No cite handy, but I’ve heard several times on the radio, and read in several GD threads, that this interim government is explicitly, legally prohibited from doing anything to vacate or impair or alter the deals awarded to foreign contractors (e.g., Halliburton) by the Coalition Provisional Authority during the occupation. That is not sovereignty.

I don’t think this is accurate. If I recall correctly, the UN resolution mentions those contracts a little. But it boiled down to saying that Iraq had final say over them.

The Iraqi ambasador to the UN has been talking that resoution up quite a bit on the news today. She seems very proud of it.

Here is yet another link to it. Warning PDF.

Here are teh paragraphs which mention contract:

Decides that, in connection with the dissolution of the Coalition Provisional Authority, the Interim Government of Iraq and its successors shall assume the rights, responsibilities and obligations relating to the Oil-for-Food Programme that were transferred to the Authority, including all operational responsibility for the Programme and any obligations undertaken by the Authority in connection with such responsibility, and responsibility for ensuring independently authenticated confirmation that goods have been delivered, and further decides that, following a 120-day transition period from the date of adoption of this resolution, the Interim Government of Iraq and its successors shall assume responsibility for certifying delivery of goods under previously prioritized contracts, and that such certification shall be deemed to constitute the independent authentication required for the release of funds associated with such contracts, consulting as appropriate to ensure the smooth implementation of these arrangements;

Further decides that the provisions of paragraph 22 of resolution 1483 (2003) shall continue to apply, except that the privileges and immunities provided in that paragraph shall not apply with respect to any final judgement arising out of a contractual obligation entered into by Iraq after 30 June 2004;

It seems pretty clear to me that all privileges to the contracts you mention are transfered to the new Iraqi government.

Although it is talking about the oil for food program. Perhaps you meant something else?

[BrainGlutton]

@pervert

IAlthough it is talking about the oil for food program. Perhaps you meant something else?

I was thinking of Halliburton’s shameful no-bid sweetheart contract to run the Iraqi oilfields. If the interim government wants to kick out Halliburton and take over the operations itself, or choose an Iraqi firm to do it, does it have the legal authority?

[Squink]

@BrainGlutton

I was thinking of Halliburton’s shameful no-bid sweetheart contract to run the Iraqi oilfields.

You might also think about the $3.7 billion in oil revenue that’s gone missing between the CPA and the Development Fund for Iraq: ‘Failure to account’ for Iraq cash

Or the millions the CPA squandered putting folks up at a Hilton resort hotel in Kuwait.

Heck, why not think about the billions wasted in NOT restoring Iraq’s electrical generation and transmission infrastructure: Abstract here, 105 page pdf decribing the exact nature of the debacle here. I particularly enjoyed the perfectly flat graph of Iraq’s postwar power generation on page 89, and the maps on page 90 which show the whole country going dark over the past year.

[Zagadka]

@Squink

You might also think about the $3.7 billion in oil revenue that’s gone missing between the CPA and the Development Fund for Iraq: ‘Failure to account’ for Iraq cash

Or the millions the CPA squandered putting folks up at a Hilton resort hotel in Kuwait.

Heck, why not think about the billions wasted in NOT restoring Iraq’s electrical generation and transmission infrastructure: Abstract here, 105 page pdf decribing the exact nature of the debacle here. I particularly enjoyed the perfectly flat graph of Iraq’s postwar power generation on page 89, and the maps on page 90 which show the whole country going dark over the past year.

Nice. I’m bookmarking your post for future cites O_O

[Spavined_Gelding]

To get back on topic. What happens to Iraq now that the head of the provisional government has been handed a piece of paper and the US procurator has gotten out of Dodge? It is just too early to tell. My uneducated guess is that sooner or latter, probably sooner, we will have a civil war on our hands with about 130,000 American soldiers right in the middle of it. In the meantime, it is worth noting that the powers now granted to the provisional government are characterized by the careful as “limited sovereignty.” Just how limited is hard to tell from the information readily available.

General Meyers (?) The Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was on PBS’s evening news today. He was asked about the chain of authority under the post June 28 government. On security matters (which can cover a wide range of stuff) he described it as a partnership. He said, to paraphrase, if the Iraqi government wanted US forces to go shoot somebody and the US didn’t want to do it then like any partnership the parties would have to work something out. At least that is what I understood him to say. That of course doesn’t really address the question. If it is like a partnership then nothing gets done that both partners (all the partners) agree to it. Rather than no one having a veto effectively everybody has a veto. The interesting question and the one that will prove what the nature of the interim government’s powers are, is what happens when the US wants to go shoot somebody up and the Iraqi government thinks that it is a really bad idea. Does the US defer to the wishes of the Iraqis? Does the US go ahead an do it anyway? Does the US quietly go to the heads of the new Iraqi government and point out that they have a real nice country here and that it would be a shame if something unpleasant happened to it just because the US forces decided to stay in there barracks the next time the new government wants some help and that help would probably come a lot faster if the Iraqis would not get in the way when the US wants to shoot somebody up a little?

Some how I suspect that the provisional government will have about the same independence and latitude as, for example, Quisling’s Norway or Vichy France. Some how I also suspect that sooner of later we will pull out and we will have a repeat of the scene when the last helicopters lifted off the roof of the embassy at Saigon.

I certainly don’t hope for that but I expect it. I expect it in Iraq and in Saudi Arabia and in Pakistan and in Afghanistan and in Jordan and in Egypt. I don’t see how the dynamics of Pan Islamic militancy can be contained let alone controlled in the long run.

[Squink]

@Spavined Gelding

It is just too early to tell. My uneducated guess is that sooner or latter, probably sooner, we will have a civil war on our hands with about 130,000 American soldiers right in the middle of it.

I expect that’ll take a few months as the various factions need to figure out who actually has power, and who is screwing who. Plus the temperatures are too high to make fighting much fun in the summertime. September and October will be interesting times, especially if the new government proves no better at restoring services than the Americans.