And one more log (my last one today, I promise) - Rasmussen in Wisconsin shows Romney +1 a 4-point bounce from his previous Obama +3 (which was a pretty big outlier even there).
Very consistent with a 2-point Ryan bounce plus the 2-point home-state bounce Nate Silver predicted. Enough to make Wisconsin gettable on a great night for Romney, and move it up on the swing state list (perhaps even over Ohio). Might give Romney one more potential long-shot path to victory (on top of his CO/NV western firewall).
ETA: Note that Ras had Romney +3 in WI back in June, and is the only pollster to show a Romney lead there this year.
Well it seems the Rasmussen tracking poll has obama up, by 1% point. Now I will gladly concede that this means little statistical in terms of a lead of anything. But it is interesting to note that Rasmussen is the most republicnay-y of all the polling services.
Why would young be more favorable of Ryan’s plans? They like the idea of keeping Medicare things peachy for current seniors but when the young come of age they get to get one of those Ryan Fun Buck Vouchers?
The young understand the reality of entitlements. They will pay more in than they get out. That was how the scheme was designed. Ryan at least makes an effort to address this reality, whereas other candidates don’t care whether Medicare and SS just run into financial problems. Won’t be on their watch anyway.
No…Ryan makes sure that the financial problems happen by showering the rich with more tax breaks, hence starving the government of the revenue that it needs, just as Grover Norquist has plotted it out.
To carry the analogy further, Ryan wants to replace the census taker with something more modern, like a computer. Obama wants to cut Medicare’s leg off and say it’s still the same program, don’t worry, the beneficiary will never notice the difference.
When their parents and grandparents got a much better deal at their expense, they tend to be more open to changing the system. Young voters consistently favor both Medicare and SS privatization in polls, and this is an otherwise very liberal group. they just don’t believe that Democrats are looking out for them.
Do Democrats have a plan to insure the solvency of these trust funds without raising taxes on young people?
SS and Medicare are not funded by the rich, they are funded by payroll taxes. Is this an admission that Democrats plan to divert money meant for the discretionary budget into entitlements? Wonder how that will affect young people?
Young people favor not paying into social security only because we don’t trust republicans to not steal the money we put in for themselves, and don’t trust the democrats have any spine to stop them. If we believed you old assholes wouldn’t steal it and it would be there for us, we would be all for paying in.
No one has stolen the money though. The trust funds are still there. But the trust funds don’t have enough funding to pay promised benefits to all the Boomers, much less Gen-X.
Ya 538.com only gives Romney a 1% bump overall when you look at all the polling houses for Ryan, and thats very low for a VP bump (which is usually temporary), up from 20% chance of winning to 30% chance. And that 10% is the 1% bump which is probably temporary.
When Pew asked about Ryan’s medicare plan, they got this:
18-29 voters favored it 46-28. 30-49 voters were more split, favoring it 38-36. Opposition by voters over 50 was overwhelming. Opposition also cut across party lines. WHich is interesting, it’s more a generational difference than an ideological difference.
I don’t think it’s callow, I think that Republicans are taking a page out of the Democratic playbook here. Sometimes it’s less important to actually have a good policy than to just show that you give a damn by addressing the concerns of a particular group. Young people are worried about whether SS or Medicare will be there for them and Democrats are just not attentive to this concern. Republicans have been. If Democrats come up with ideas to fix the problem they can probably win the support of young people, since young people are naturally more liberal anyway.