I don’t know if he’s exact on the percentages but I think he’s got the idea right.
I actually tried an experiment once. I played several games in Madden 2005 doing exactly what Easterbrook hates. Kicking field goals and punting late in the game, not going for it on 4ths late in the game and it’s fairly short yardage, taking it to overtime instead of going for the win, punting in the “maroon zone”, blitzing heavily, and so on. I then played the exact same games doing the opposite. These were all on All-Pro, a skill level I’m about 50-50 at. I let the computer handle almost all of the receiving and most of the running, as well as just about all the defense. My win percentage increased dramatically following the TMQ guidelines. I’d love to see someone else try it and see if they can report an actual increase in wins.
I remember exactly what you’re talking about. It was an atrocious call.
And, it contrasted nicely with a call Cowher made early in that game to go for it when it was like 4th & 1 from the Pats 45 – which I also thought was a bad call.
The game demonstrated just how bad Cowher is under pressure. IMO, he’s not a very bright coach. I’m constantly suprised at how much they win despite him.
Let’s not forget that at that point in the game Larry Johnson had been running great against the Raiders D and had just caught a dump off pass and run down to the one to get them in the position to begin with. Sometimes the old agage “Dance with the one you brought.” or “Ride the horse that got you there.” comes into play. IOW, LJ had been playing great and making plays all game, why not give him the chance to win it now?