I do note that the numbers are pretty much dead on to marginally better for the Democratic side with 2008 in NC. This time Dem 47.7%, Rep 31.5%, None/Oth 20.9% compared to 2008’s Dem 47.4%, Rep 31.6%, None/Oth 21.0%, and with a few more having voting early (62.7 of 2008’s total vote compared to 60.6% last time). Last time Obama eked out a very narrow win 49.9 to 49.5 with Bob Barr picking up 0.6%. Don’t know if Virgil Goode’s write-in campaign there will pick as much. But it is looking closer than 538’s 2 point Romney win prediction anyway.
PA wasn’t ever in question but these numbers are indeed hard to parse. Yes, still only one in twenty voted early, but that’s over 25% more than last time. Last time early voters were overwhelmingly Republican, 53 to 38%, this time it’s closer, 47 to 42, but GOP still in the lead. So a relatively poorer showing early voting for the GOP than last time (with more having voted early) and they lost last time. I can’t say that means too much.
Of note, with 51% of 2008’s total voters having voted early FL looks to be marginally better for Obama than it was in his 2008 2.8 margin win.
One thing to note about early voting- in 2008, McCain’s campaign and the GOP in general were awful at early voting- they didn’t really emphasize it or make much of an effort for it. Romney has improved this by quite a bit, but it was a low bar to clear. And Romney’s not running against McCain- he’s running against Obama- so even if Romney doubles McCain’s early votes, it may not mean much because it’s very possible that a lot of those voters would have voted on election day anyway, and Obama is counting on early voting to get the “sporadic” (read- unreliable) voters out there. And it looks like in just the raw numbers (not the ratio of D to R), Obama might be doing better in early voting than he did in 08.
Note in NC, according to the link I cited before, 63% of likely voters have already voted with a D 48, R 31, N/O 21 split.
The ones who have not yet voted, 50% of Florida LVs and 37% of NC LVs favor Romney enough that both states should be close … if they come out and vote. But boy it’s going to bit nasty outside tomorrow …
