Back near the end of September, Obama announced he was pulling out of North Dakota and Georgia to put more resources into Wisconsin and Minnesota. Of course, now if you look at the polls, both North Daktota and Georgia are in play. In spite of that, I don’t think Obama is going to win the state. However, it’s close enough that I have to wonder, if the campaign had stayed in Georgia, could they have flipped the state?
Perhaps, but Georgia was never going to be the difference between Obama winning and losing. Obama’s goal was to maxamize his chances of winning, not to get as many EV as possible. If Obama were to win Georgia, he almost certainly would have won Virginia and NC too, and already been well above the 270 EV he needed.
Not a mistake. If Georgia and ND are seriously in play, it means the presidential race is almost a foregone conclusion. Designing your campaign strategy on the expectation that you’ll be 8 points ahead in the polls is a bad idea. (Admittedly, the GA senate race might have been helped by an all-out Obama effort. On the other hand, Franken in Minnesota is pretty clearly going to benefit there.)
I don’t think it’s going to matter. Most news blogs are putting Obama at over 300 EV. CNN has him at 277. All those sources assume Georgia is red.
Georgia isn’t a state he needed, compared with Colorado or Virginia. If they decided it was ok just to make McCain play defense there, and that they might carry it if turnout was overwhelming and a few other things went their way, I think it makes sense.
If he comes up short of 350 or so that would be extremely surprising.
It’s possible he could have taken Georgia. On the other hand, using more resources there could have had unintended consequences elsewhere. But somehow, a 47-year-old, black, Democratic, first-term Senator is going to become president of the United States in 2009. Does anyone remember how incredible that would have seemed five years ago? I’m going to give him the benefit of a doubt when it comes to decisions on how to run a campaign.
Just a sidetrack, but isn’t it refreshing to be able to do that? I remember with Kerry, we were constantly bickering about this that and the other, but with Obama, I can’t really say that I’ve felt that anything he did was naive or amateurish. He’s constantly impressed me with his reaction to any problem that came up. It’s been incredible. It’s not something people could say for McCain
Well, there was ‘bitter’. That was a naive screwup. He could have handled that a lot better. I dig what he meant to say, but that was blown.
I dunno, but Georgia seems to have mixed feelings of frustration and relief.
he must have really listened to fables as a kid. i’ve never seen “slow and steady wins the race” played out before.
that seems to be his strategy. slow and steady, before you know it the finish line is in sight, and you have millions of people behind you.
Well he is built like a marathon runner …
Five years ago, at the Chicago Pride parade I was there with my family. I was backing Dean and some people talked to me about Barack Obama, saying he was an up and comer and was going places. The positions they told me he held sounded good, and I shook my head thinking too bad with a name like that he would be unelectable nationally. His supporters were excited about him and were convinced he was going far. I assumed at the time that he was of mid-eastern descent. I wondered when someone with a name like that would be able to run for president.
When I heard him speak at the convention in 2004, I thought, well we have a candidate and god willing, a president. Five years ago, I could not believe it was possible, Four years ago, I believed it would happen.
It was not just the fable of the tortoise and the hare he is listening to; it is the words of his wife just before the 2004 speech, “Don’t screw this up, buddy.” His steps in his senate campaign were measured. He faced the camera dogging his every step with the cool poise we have seen this year. He campaigned against that fool Keyes with dignity and grace. He managed actually get a couple of things done as the new guy and not alienate his fellow senators even as his rock star image grew. He has been largely not screwing this one up, and well, that is a refreshing change in a democratic candidate. I don’t think pulling out of Georgia and North Dakota was a screw up. I watched on the news this morning how it looks like he can win this without Pensylvania, Florida, and Ohio, although it looks like he will get most of those too. I think he has looked at the electoral map and carefully decided how he could win even if he lost those states, be it through voter suppression, rigged voting machines, or just plan old fashioned not getting more real votes in what is bound to be a close election. He is planning not to be whining about how if things had been fair he would have won. He is planning on winning and also, he is planning what to do after he wins.
Was pulling out of Georgia a mistake? Well, I knew a girl named Georgia once, and – nevermind. (Seriously, I wonder how she’s doing. Sad how many people you lose touch with over the years.)
I’d love it if Obama won Georgia, but even without the racism, I don’t know if he could be the pig-ignorant vote or the religious fanatic vote (lot of overlap there). I’ll be voting on Wednesday, but I’ve gotten used to knowing that the state is going to go the other way.
He’s run a good race, and a lot closer to a fifty state effort than any democratic candidate has run since 1964. Looking at how close McCain was in Michigan before he bailed out of there, and how quickly Obama went to a double-digit lead afterwards, I wonder if a lot of the resistance to democratic candidates in the south has been the fact that they didn’t seem to consider the southern states part of their campaign strategy. If you don’t act like you want their votes, you’re not going to get them. I’m very pleased that Barack Obama has put states like Virginia and North Carolina in play, and hope future democratic candidates don’t neglect them again.