I’m going to REALLY go out on a limb and predict that as soon as the election is decided (not over, but actually decided), Kerry will stop wearing his Lance Armstrong yellow bracelet. 
And who could fault him? I’ve tried wearing mine, but the rubber makes my wrist sweaty and pinches my arm hair.
Spot-on. It would be even more accurate, though bad for Brook’s career, I suppose, if he had made it about TV and newspaper pundits rather than dinner guests.
Well, its friday, 4 days to the election. On Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 it currently stands at: Kerry 236 Bush 281. I’m STILL going to go with a very narrow Kerry win, but I’m starting to wonder now if I might have been wrong. Bush seems to be picking up some steam from somewhere (though gods know why).
Has anyone else voted yet btw? I voted on tuesday…much nicer to vote early than to stand around in all those lines.
-XT
Electoral-Vote.com shows leads within the margin of error as being “for” the “leading candidate.” But the margin of error really is a margin of error, and those states are toss-ups (which he acknowledges in the text, but misleadingly contradicts in the graphic). Moreover, he acknowledges in the text that the polls are all over the place and updates for the most current (not necessarily the most reliable) poll.
It’s basically just a guy’s website, and he’s not a news organization, so I don’t mean to criticize him. It’s just stuff you oughta know.
The best predictor I’ve seen is the New York Times, since they’ve never shown states within the margin of error as leaning one way or the other. They show tossups as tossups.
Answer: because he’s a better choice than Kerry.
I’m still saying that Bush will win, as I have predicted confidently and continuously since 2002.
I know people who predicted confidently and continuously that Boston would not win the World Series.
Funny thing, the future.
For months I have been moaning that Bush will probably win. I now believe that Kerry will win, by a margin that will surprise most people. A Bush win would be accompanied by a lot of evidence of widespread fraud. These are the factors that make me discount Bush’s lead in the polls:
[ul]
[li]**“Likely voters”/turnout. **Many polls don’t count people who didn’t vote in the last election. However, there have been massive voter registration drives by Democrats. This will translate into high turnout because there is more interest in this election than in any in recent memory. There are very strong anti-Bush feelings out there that will motivate normally apathetic people to vote.[/li][li]**Undecideds vote for Kerry. **As some articles have pointed out, this election is essentially a referendum on Bush. In general, few undecideds vote for the incumbent, and that will be even more true this year. The Bush regime’s policies are so extreme that unless you’re a true believer, you will have a hard time voting for him. Most undecideds are not in the Kerry column because they do not identify as Kerry supporters, but they know Bush and don’t like what he’s done as president.[/li][li]Cell phone factor. Polls underrepresent young and lower income people, who favor Kerry.[/li][li]**Bush supporters defecting. **There are a number of people who feel it’s wrong to publicly criticize the commander in chief during wartime, but will feel OK about it in the privacy of the voting booth. Some have blinded themselves but know deep down that he’s led the country in the wrong direction and will have a pang of conscience when the moment of truth comes.[/li][/ul]
I’m predicting the popular vote will be 52%-47%.
Going out on a limb, Kerry will take CA, OR, WA, HI, NM, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, OH, PA, NJ, NY, CT, MA, NT, ME, NH, RI, DE, MD, DC (284 electoral votes), and at least one other. There will be one surprise state going for Kerry (North Carolina?).
I haven’t seen the LA Times map linked here. It’s my favorite because you can change the colors of the states yourself and see how many electoral votes your scenario adds up to.
On an emotional level, the Sox win has contributed to my optimism.
If Kerry does win the election, every news writer in America will draw parallels between his campaign and the Red Sox win.
Which is why I was so hoping that Houston would beat St Louis in the playoffs…
Any of those people me?
Kerry will win both popular vote and electoral vote. But very narrow.
I, too, can give many anecdotal stories about Republicans who are voting against Bush rather than voting for the Democrats.
The Republican Party and strategists have lost this one for Bush. How they could fuck up the re-election of Bush is beyond me.
I’m an ultra-liberal Democrat. We didn’t win this one on our own. We owe the Republicans big-time for their help.
Honestly, if Bush were half of the great leader his supporters say he is, there’s no way he should be in this much danger of losing. He had a 90% approval rating handed to him on a silver platter. All he had to do is be president of the entire country. Instead, he supported extreme partisan right-way policies exclusively, and behaved as if there were no reason to consider the needs of those people who did not vote for him. No one who behaves like that deserves to win the presidency.
My current prediction: Kerry wins, 310 to 208. I think Kerry will win:
AR, CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI.
Obviously, the race is still way too close to call, but I decided to go ahead with a prediction anyway. I think there’s a decent chance that Kerry could win CO, MO, VA, and WV as well, which would give him 348 to 190 for Bush, if the unlikely occurs and we all of those.
Swing states I’m definitely predicting for Bush: AZ, IA, NV
Swing states I’m definitely predicting for Kerry: HI (which I don’t think is really a swing state at all), MI, MN, NJ (ditto), OH, OR (ditto), PA, WA (ditto)
Gah!
:wally
“…if the unlikely occurs and he wins all of those.”
Well, they did kind of owe us one for Gore in 2000
I’m a Bush supporter, but your first sentence does not describe my reaction: I am well aware of the many reasons Bush has alienated a good chunk of the electorate, and - while I don’t agree with the final assessment of choosing to vote against him - there is a strong case to be made against Bush, and reasonable minds may differ.
Conversely, I could point out (and have!) that if Bush were as evil and incompetent as some of his detractors claim he is, there’s no way he should be even CLOSE to winning, much less in the lead.
A more reasoned Bush opponent might offer the converse of the same statement that I did above: there’s a strong case to be made for selecting Bush over Kerry, even if it’s one I don’t agree with.
It really was just Iraq. He could’ve had his tax cuts and whatever, but if he loses, it’ll be because of Iraq.
You didn’t win this one, period.
Probably it was all the cell phone users that couldn’t get to the polls.
I cannot tell you how much fun I will have pointing out these quotes after Bush wins.