That pretty much sums up my prediction to a T. Except that bup said it first.
I feel so derivative.
Trust me; the Republican Party will see to it that Bush wins Florida, no matter how the people of Florida actually vote. There is no possible way they’d let voters get in the way of that. I’d bet a hundred bucks on Bush taking Florida.
And if he does, that, of course, proves your theory that the Republican party rigged the election there. Right?
No, it doesn’t. I’m saying what I think will happen. It would only be PROVEN with objective evidence.
It’s a foregone conclusion that the GOP is tampering with the election in Florida. It’s right out in the open, they’re not even trying to be sneaky about it. The question is whether Kerry can still win Florida in spite of the tampering.
Well, I was just watching Fox and the two folks they just had on said that its going to be a landslide victory…for Kerry. Basically both people said that the new voter turnout is the key. They both claimed that ALL the polls are completely wrong and that Kerry will win in the EC by a landslide. The popular vote should be a comfortable Kerry win. No recount because its going to be too far out to bother with a recount.
-XT
What is the sound of 10,000 lawyers with nothing to do?
None of the polls are sampling young registered voters who say they are likely to vote? I do suspect that there will be an abnormally high number of young people voting this election. The 2000 presidential election was a squeaker, and the polls currently are saying this will be the case in 2004. Thus young people may believe that their vote really will count.
[sound of ice clinking in 10,000 highball glasses]
Just to put the polls in perspective, here’s a little blast from the past, courtesy of Daily Kos :
CNN, Monday, November 6, 2000–the day before Al Gore won the popular vote.
What drugs were these guys on? I could use some Nov. 3rd.
I’m surprised no one’s yet mentioned this one: The Washington Redskins Indicator, which this year, as of just an hour or so ago, favors Kerry.
Heh.
Well, 48 hours to go, pretty much everything that’s going to happen has happened, and I’m procrastinating on writing a story about “527” organizations. This is a perfect time to make a prediction.
Electoral Vote:
Kerry: 284
Bush: 254
Popular Vote:
Kerry: 49 percent
Bush: 48 percent
Battleground State breakdown:
Kerry: Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Hawaii
Bush: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas, Colorado, West Virginia, Arizona
My reasoning:
Major daily tracking polls (Zogby, Fox News, Washington Post) have all shown either a trend for Kerry or one against Bush in the past couple days. Voter turnout is on track to be ridiculously high in Florida (always bad for the incumbent) and the Dems kicked the GOPs butt in voter registration there and in other places. An L.A. Times survey showed that evangelicals are no more likely to vote for Bush this year than in 2000. A Fox News survey is also now showing a spike in enthusiasm among Kerry supporters. The number of undecided voters among young voters is as low as the general population – pointing to a high turnout among a group that leans Kerry.
God, I can’t believe we’re at the end of this thing that’s been my life and livelihood for months. It’s been a helluva ride. See all of you back here on the big night. 
I didn’t know you were covering politics, SNenc? I did that for several years.
Who are you working for?
I don’t like to broadcast such things, but let’s just say that I get my fair share of lame jokes about working for Gentlemen’s Quarterly. 
Classy. However, not unexpected.
Here’s another one for you to enjoy: Bush won’t win 200 electoral college votes.
Now, 1 November, the odds are:
BUSH, George W. (Republican Party) 1.57
KERRY, John (Democratic Party) 2.25
Surely you know that people who set odds don’t “know something” about the actual outcome. The line is set by people who bet, and they push the line to where they know they break even. If Bush is ahead, it merely means more money is bet on Bush. If the line is changing, it is because now people are starting to bet Kerry. It doesn’t reflect anything except how people are betting, and has nothing to do with the outcome of an event.
The idea that the bettors know something is a common fallacy – so commone a fallacy, that at one point the government was toying with the idea of letting people bet on terrorist attack “futures,” thinking that it would actually predict terrorist attacks.
No, but it is a way of getting a consensus opinion that 1) excludes those that really aren’t sure what they think and 2) gauges their relative confidence in their opinion.
Certainly* some* people have varying degrees of inside information; even if it’s just “the feeling I got from someone who knows someone who would know.”
I for one, regard things like that as at least as reliable as telephone polling; not that I put a whole lot of stock in them…