I meant 11:30 eastern before I need to vote. So 2 hours, Aguecheek.
For what it is worth his posting history backs up his claim. His crumbs do follow. I haven’t made his posts into links. You want me to, or just post the raw data?
[Ben Grimm]“Wotta revoltin’ development.”[/BG]
Nothing posts: 42, 44, 110, 205, 208, 395, 573,749, 758, 1533, 1641, 1705, 1753, 1923, 2136, 2163, 2270, 2311, 2313, 2326, 2416, 2671, 2740, 2838
post 239 -the infamous ho-ly cow post
post 338 -says will re-read and come up with more concrete opinion (which he does later)
post 393 -FOS sturmhauke, and says he is mafia, votes for him, and FOS auto
post 400 -continues to push for sturmhuake, using he was a good player from last game method
post 731 -talks about caerieD and her crumbs specifically the mistrust of auto and BM
-says will look closely at BM and auto
post 839 talks about how we have nothing to go on, and arguing is silly
post 1066 -responds to JSexton FOS for voting for sturmhauke, responds with reasons that sturmhauke was a good player, same reasons given as others who had voted for him
-agrees that menecchio was crumb
-defends auto FOS as lots had done it, and votes for BM
post 1163 -unvotes BM
post 1530 -votes for queuing, says he doesn’t want to get VIG killed as “not a good idea in the long run”
post 1702 -asks me to explain why I thought he was scum, and defends his voting of sturmhauke
post 1704 -reiterates previous post more succinctly
post 1745 -says he did a quick read of nesta’s posts, and suggests we all look at her posts.
post 1752 explains missed 1 post by nesta re: auto
post 1764 -explains some FOS of hocow
post 1766 -FOS Monkey Mensch, lays out a number of reasons but does not vote
post 1778 -responds to Hocow asking about what she should respond to. His response is nothing, just that hocow came up when he pulled nesta’s posts, says so did Monkey Mensch
post 1786 -responds to JSexton, re: sturmhauke
post 1830 -votes for MonkeyMensch, mainly due to supposed lies about not reading companion thread of old game, but reading the main thread
post 1945 -wonders about my numbers of scum (which was starting with the 9 we all assume) and about SK
post 2022 -unvotes monkeymensch
-conditional vig kill re: FCOD
post 2133 -lynch Fern Forest, VIG FCOD
post 2529 -votes for auto, agrees pima should announce who he will check out
post 2580 -asks why BM is FOSing him
post 2592 -BM says no time to do so, but will do so later, and tells us that he is currently doing work of 2 people
post 2798 -FOS Queuing as SK, lays out some reasons
All in all it seems to fit with what he said. He investigated Sturmhauke, and he came up scum. So he pushed for his lynching. It quieted down some after he came up town, but not that much. Then he very well could have verified both BM and Pima’s claim. Hard to tell. He did vote for BM once, but this was prior to the role claim I believe. Since the only crumb that he might have left is the sturmhauke thing, and he got 2 different reads on him, as well as now knowing that sturmhauke is a mason, well who knows? As well investigating the truth of role claims was basically unnecessary as we had put into place checks ourselves. So I think that could have been a poor play. One that is hard to verify as well. It could be an elaborate scheme that took into account his own voting pattern. Or he could be telling the truth.
I for one do not want to risk it.
I do wonder why you never investigated Monkey Mensch however? He seems to have been on your scumdar for a while, why didn’t you investigate him?
Shit. Why is it every time we seem to get together on a target, the target turns out to claim??
Well, we’ve got a history of always believing a claim, at least temporarily, soo
Unvote Aguecheek
at least for now.
And isn’t just like my luck: by trying to derail a bandwagon I might be accused of starting, I start a bandwagon that would be all my fault. 
Plus now I have no idea who to vote for.
Yes! Either!
Damn, who to vote for now?
Hey, we could leave it up to chance! If everybody unvotes, NAF will select from the whole town, right?
Well it seems we have a few choices:
A) we continue to believe in role claims, and accept Aguecheek’s claim, and everyone unvotes him
B) all of those voters choose between Malacandra and I
B1) Malacandra: has done very little analysis, didn’t vote for 12 hour countdown, loves math
B2) Queuing: has pinged many a scumdar, talks to much and is annoying, but does provide analysis and voting histories, accusation of SK
C) we go off the charts and vote for monkey mensch (whose, incidentally, posting history I also have as he has pinged my scumdar, but I really need to do some work, will try to post it before I die so it doesn’t go to waste)
That is how I see it anyway. 
The cop role is too easy for Mafia to hide in. I’m tempted to see Ague hang and then base tomorrow’s lynch on the result. Meanwhile, our other cop can investigate Q.
On the other hand, I’m still mostly suspicious of the lurkers and no-voters. We need to put more pressure on them.
Since there’s been a vote, unvote hocow. Next on my lurker’s list of doom is lynch MadTheSwine. You need to vote, like it or not. Rysto, I’m looking at you, too.
Well folks, I got to page 30 of my read through and went to bed.The only thing I gathered from it so far was that Queing Probably isn’t in the mafia.SK? Maybe.
Well, let’s see. We’re at T-minus three hours now, give or take, and here’s my understanding of the major issues of the Day:
- Aguecheek’s bandwagon and resultant Cop claim: I really have no idea what to make of this. On the one hand, his explanation justifies his posting and voting history fairly cleanly. On the other hand, it’s pretty easy to make up a post facto explanation for any voting pattern if you have the freedom to make up “investigation results” as you go. pima’s story had a ring of truth; I’m not sure this one does. So what now?
Several points:
Rysto: I wouldn’t bother waiting for Aguecheek to come in here and address your breadcrumb remarks for himself; if you re-read his role claim post, he states that he won’t be posting at all today. We’re all going to have to make our various decisions without the input of the target himself; this is quite unfortunate, I think.
Queuing: Thanks for the thorough analysis.
My feeling on Aguecheek is basically the same as my stated opinion on pimaspinner. Either one might be lying, but it seems to me that our best course of action in the immediate future would be to assume neither is. If they are both what they claim to be, they will likely be the next two townies killed - the Mafia has no reason to leave them alive that I can see (I guess they could try to leave one alive to trick us into a mislynch, but doing that would still give us the benefit of extra investigations).
If one (or both, in which case :eek: ) of them is lying, well, we know where they are. We can lynch them at any time that the evidence against them becomes more definitive. In the meanwhile, I’d prefer to err on the side of caution - the Beat Cops may be the only real resource we have left.
- The Malacandra / Queuing fight: I note that this has quieted. I further note that hocow has waded in with a post that re-emphasizes the division between them and places a vote based on this division. Why do this?
All of which is to say that I’m leaving my vote where it is for now. However, I feel confident that there are few new persons of interest to take a look at tomorrow, but with so little time left until the deadline I don’t think it would be advisable to open new avenues of inquiry until then.
Aguecheek, why did you investigate pimaspinner, when that night we were going to Vig-kill FCoD to test pimaspinner’s claim? Seems very counter-productive to me.
sings
And how many town will it take ‘til we learn
That too many townsfolk have died?
The answer, my friends, is blowin’ in the wind…
Some people have the talent of picking through thousands of posts looking for so-called evidence of scummery. Some don’t. I’ve tried throughout to be as fair and even-handed as possible on questions like whether Blaster Master was the Vig or whether there was a murkier explanation we ought not to ignore - hell, I was even the first to point out that the refutation of FCoD’s Miller claim invalidated his circumstantial evidence in my favour. And I’ve tried - eh, how I’ve tried! - to analyze and explain how much confidence we can put in our surviving cops. So for some reason it comes down to a choice between Queuing and Aguecheek and myself, and it looks like Aguecheek cop claim is good and Queuing himself is doing his best to corroborate it. Which makes me reluctant to vote for either of them, despite my own interests.
Are the town going to hang me on such a shaky chain of conclusions or is there some alternative? Eh, if it comes to that I demand a last cigar and no blindfold.
Dammit, Queuing, quit being so reasonable.
I said after last night’s disaster that the beat cop was pointless, and this is only confirming my frustration. Queuing, I’m sticking with you for now, although I doubt you’ll be the one to swing.
Again I feel like our top three suspects are all town. I voted for Mal because I think he’s slightly less likely to be town than the other two, but I’m more convinced about the folks who aren’t in the top three. I think MadTheSwine and Pygmy Rugger are both scum (kill them when I’m dead! 
) but the rest of y’all don’t and I’m obliged to go with the will of the group.
Can someone (preferably more than one) who voted for Aguecheek please tell me why? I’m just not seeing it, so it looks like a mafia-driven bandwagon to me. Please convince me otherwise.
Well we certainly are bringing this one down to the wire. As I’ve said before, I’m most suspicious of **MtS ** and Pygmy Rugger. I’m going to vote for MadTheSwine.
I’m really not sure about Aguecheek’s claim. Why investigate a claim that’s about to be verified? Why defend voting for sturmhauke after the second investigation indicated a 50% probability that the first investigation was wrong? However, let’s wait and see what Aguecheek’s next investigation gives us. Should we vote on a target? That might be better than letting him cherry-pick another investigation if he’s Mafia.
As I don’t have any reads on potential Mafia(hence my lack of posting), I’m going to have to fall back on the lynch lurkers bandwagon. Lynch MadTheSwine
Updated vote count (someone please correct me if I’m wrong):
Aguecheek - 5 - Menocchio, sturmhauke, Pygmy Rugger, brewha, Kat
**Queuing ** - 3 - Aguecheek, Fretful Porpentine, ArizonaTeach
**Malacandra ** - 3 - Queuing, hocow, cowgirl
MadtheSwine - 2 - Pleonast, pimaspinner
**brewha ** - 1 - monkeymensch
Pygmy Rugger - 1 - storyteller0910
I’m going to early lunch now, but will check back in at least once more before 1:30 EST. Whew.
Martyrdom goes only so far. MtS may or may not be scum but I know I’m not, so it doesn’t make sense for me to keep myself on death row. Vote** MadTheSwine**.
This is a bandwagon I would rather get behind. unvote Malacandra, vote MadTheSwine.
storyteller, does MTS look as scummy as Pygmy Rugger to you too? Can you be convinced to change your vote? (We can always get Pygmy Rugger tomorrow.)
I mostly voted for Aguecheek because I had no read on him whatsoever. He has been below my radar for the entire game. Why would a person hide in the shadows? Either because they are mafia and want the town to implode on itself, or they are a power town role and don’t want the mafia to put the hit out on them.
I’m not entirely sure which is the case here, but Queuings analysis at least leaves some reasonable doubt that he is indeed scum. so,
Unvote Aguecheek
Now I got a little over 2 hours to figure out who I think is most scummy.
Feck!
Well, shit. MadtheSwine doesn’t really look anything to me. Not town, not Mafia, not nothing. I feel like lynching him would be a shot in the dark.
But I don’t want to see Queuing or Malacandra lynched right now, and I favor leaving Aguecheek alive for now. Since no one else is on the Pygmy train today, I will:
unvote Pygmy
vote MadtheSwine
Now the vote count is:
**MadtheSwine ** - 5 - Pleonast, pimaspinner, storyteller0910, malacandra, cowgirl
**Aguecheek ** - 5 - Menocchio, sturmhauke, Pygmy Rugger, brewha, Kat
**Queuing ** - 3 - Aguecheek, Fretful Porpentine, ArizonaTeach
**Malacandra ** - 2 - Queuing, hocow
**brewha ** - 1 - monkeymensch
And I am really going to lunch now. No fooling. I can go an hour without checking this thread. I can.
Maybe I’ll eat lunch at my desk.