Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[brewha]

@Queuing

Well what to do you know. We actually got another one.

NAF, its fine by me. One less day of brewha throwing insults my way constantly doesn’t sound bad to me.

I didn’t want to respond to this earlier because I believe it breaks the “no strategy at night” rule.

I do not constantly throw insults your way. I have not said anything that you have not provoked. You show me any post where I insulted you or used a scarcastic remark and I’ll show you the earlier post that provoked it.

I’m not the one with a history of blowing up here. Way back on post 2802, Malacandra wrote

Queuing is right about one thing (on the stopped-clock principle, I guess): we might as well take your word for a Citizen read, and suggest you look elsewhere. Your chances of correctly spotting vanilla Mafia aren’t as good, but the true positive/false positive ratio is well in our favour.

I didn’t see anything out of line, but you responded with:

Thanks for the insult jackass.

How about you actually post something useful once? At least I am not afraid of throwing my ideas out there. Ideas to be tested, and seen if they are at all effective. You just post nothing but fluff and some lass insults. Oh wait, let us not forget your poor little manhood being insulted by some calling you a she.

Unless there was more to provoke that response, I believe it was out of line. That is the post you quoted before your response though.
So, why am I digging this up? I don’t believe Queuing is a prick. I believe that his quick temper and resorts to insults are just his strategy to keep people from voting for him. He got me to second guess my vote and almost convinced me that my suspicions were out of line. We got plenty of time, I’m not going to cast my vote yet. I’m just wondering what others think of this line of reasoning.

[Rysto]

Every time that I think that I’ve found scum, this game throws a curveball at my. I was absolutely convinved that cowgirl was scum and was ready to lay out my case. Now I have to go back and read the bloody thread again. I’m at work right now, but I’ll try to post tonight.

[Santo_Rugger]

When Ague “investigated” Monkey Mench, he told us he came back town. I’m wondering if he did this because:

1. MM is Mafia, and Ague was trying to protect him.
   (Not likely, since we were going to find out he was scum soon. He wouldn’t be protected for long.)

2. Ague knew MM wasn’t Mafia, but was trying to make us think he did option one.

@brewha

<snip>I’m just wondering what others think of this line of reasoning.

I couldn’t agree less. He keeps saying he’s going to shut up, and he won’t. Could be all part of that strategy.

OTOH, I think we need to start looking at some of the less prolific posters and voters. Let’s get some ideas and arguments out there early today.

[MonkeyMensch]

@Pygmy Rugger

When Ague “investigated” Monkey Mench, he told us he came back town. I’m wondering if he did this because:

1. MM is Mafia, and Ague was trying to protect him.
   (Not likely, since we were going to find out he was scum soon. He wouldn’t be protected for long.)

2. Ague knew MM wasn’t Mafia, but was trying to make us think he did option one.

That was my concern in #3325 where he knew I was citizen and could bolster his cop claim if I died first.

[MonkeyMensch]

Grrrr, no edit.

And by extension the FOS falls on me if he’s discovered first and the mafia therefore get some free suspicion.

[Queuing]

Siince I seem to get FOS’d for talking and not for talking, I will make this quick. I see no reason to change my vote from the previous day.

Lynch Pygmy Rugger

[cowgirl]

Bugger! Not again!

I feel like a pot of tulips in a Douglas Adams novel.

You guys can finish the rest of my cheesecake. You’ll need the nourishment.

Go town!

[sturmhauke]

@NAF1138

Inexplicably a hard bound copy of Shakespeare’s classic play **TWELFTH NIGHT ** was stuffed into his mouth post mortem. No one is quite sure what this is supposed to mean.

What does that mean? Guess I can figure it out in the afterlife.

Sorry for suspecting you cowgirl. Come on, let’s go get some spirits. Ha, I kill me! Er, wait…

[Lakai]

@MonkeyMensch

That was my concern in #3325 where he knew I was citizen and could bolster his cop claim if I died first.

Sure this could be an honest mistake, but I like to think otherwise.

So for now, Vote MonkeyMensch.

Why on earth are mafia not going after the SK? Maybe they thought that **cowgirl **was the SK?

[storyteller0910]

@Lakai

Sure this could be an honest mistake, but I like to think otherwise.

So for now, Vote MonkeyMensch.

Why on earth are mafia not going after the SK? Maybe they thought that **cowgirl **was the SK?

Wait, did I miss something in re: MonkeyMensch? Maybe my brain is just scrambled, but this sequence of posts is not making any sense to me. Could someone clarify exactly what it all signifies, and why it equals suspicion of Monkey? Because I don’t get it.

[MonkeyMensch]

Well sure.

Back in #3243 Aguecheek, then a putative beat cop, says he investigated me and came up town.

I had Aguecheek on my scum list and so in #3325 I said it felt like a set-up and voted Aguecheek. Part of that set-up was to throw suspicion my way if Aguecheek was exposed.

[storyteller0910]

Two more quick things, while I’m at it:

@Queuing

Siince I seem to get FOS’d for talking and not for talking, I will make this quick. I see no reason to change my vote from the previous day.

Lynch Pygmy Rugger

I am enthusiastically on board with this concept, for innumerable reasons.

vote Pygmy Rugger

Maybe this time someone will get behind it.

Also, and on an unrelated note, I think we have gotten away from really looking at the people who are night killed and thinking about why they were night killed. If the Mafia killed cowgirl and the SK killed sturmhauke, then it is confirmed that the SK is no longer aiming for scum. If vice versa, than anything is possible.

However, in either case, we had two living Masons going into last night. Either the Mafia or the SK made a decision to target sturmhauke instead of Pleonast. Why? It is possible that this was a random decision, but there might be information to be gleaned from it if it was not.

---

I’m away in meetings from now until 4:00 or so, but I’ll be back later tonight. I’m working on re-reading one more time, with a couple of new questions in mind, and will probably have a long-ish post the next time around.

[Santo_Rugger]

@storyteller0910

Two more quick things, while I’m at it:

I am enthusiastically on board with this concept, for innumerable reasons.

vote Pygmy Rugger<snip>

Care to explain a finite ammount of them? All the FoS that have been cast haven’t had any solid reasoning behind them. Will you and Queuing please explain your logic?

[storyteller0910]

@Pygmy Rugger

Care to explain a finite ammount of them? All the FoS that have been cast haven’t had any solid reasoning behind them. Will you and Queuing please explain your logic?

A detailed response will have to wait until later tonight, because I have to leave the computer in five minutes, but in brief:

You appear to me to be a highly opportunistic voter. You do not appear to pursue targets because you genuinely believe them to be scum, but because you can drum up justification for doing so. My final straw was when you made yourself the third voter on the Queuing bandwagon yesterday (?) - jumping into a debate that strongly resembled the townie/townie arguments that have dragged us down so far - which was something that I have in the past predicted scum would do.

[Santo_Rugger]

@storyteller0910

A detailed response will have to wait until later tonight, because I have to leave the computer in five minutes, but in brief:

You appear to me to be a highly opportunistic voter. You do not appear to pursue targets because you genuinely believe them to be scum, but because you can drum up justification for doing so. My final straw was when you made yourself the third voter on the Queuing bandwagon yesterday (?) - jumping into a debate that strongly resembled the townie/townie arguments that have dragged us down so far - which was something that I have in the past predicted scum would do.

I think I’ll wait until the detailed response. :rolleyes:

[Santo_Rugger]

@storyteller0910

<snip>
Also, and on an unrelated note, I think we have gotten away from really looking at the people who are night killed and thinking about why they were night killed. If the Mafia killed cowgirl and the SK killed sturmhauke, then it is confirmed that the SK is no longer aiming for scum. If vice versa, than anything is possible.

However, in either case, we had two living Masons going into last night. Either the Mafia or the SK made a decision to target sturmhauke instead of Pleonast. Why? It is possible that this was a random decision, but there might be information to be gleaned from it if it was not.

<snip>

Here’s what sturmhauke posted yesterday, and this is his spreadsheet. It’s pretty much up to date.

@sturmhauke

<snip>
What does this all mean? That’s the million-dollar question right now. Aguecheek and cowgirl are both somehow still alive despite being high-value targets, if they’re telling the truth. brewha apparently voted for Queuing in an effort to bump someone else up the polls, despite there being more likely candidates. Then he realized his tactical error and voted for Malacandra to clinch it. Meanwhile, Queuing has been practically shouting down all opposition.

Here’s what I think: They’re all scum of one sort or another. Queuing seems the most likely SK of the bunch, the rest are probably Mafia. Consider: brewha has cast exactly one vote for Aguecheek (day 5), and none for cowgirl (either version). Aguecheek and cowgirl have never voted for each other, or for brewha. Combine that with the iffy last-minute claims the past two days, both of which are directly responsible for townie deaths, and I think it makes a good case.

Maybe I’m flailing around in the dark, but frankly I’m getting tired of this game. It goes from utter chaos to sluggish summaries of posting histories, and not much in between. So screw it, I’ve laid out my reasons, and now I’m voting.

For today, vote Queuing. After that, I would strongly suggest we lynch Aguecheek, brewha, and cowgirl.

His last sentence is the most important. Of the four people he lists, Ague and cowgirl are dead. cowgirl was presumably killed by the Mafia. That makes me think that the SK killed sturm last night, because they didn’t want him to continue pushing this line of thinking. brewha and Queuing should be looked at very closely, IMHO.

[Fretful_Porpentine]

Inexplicably a hard bound copy of Shakespeare’s classic play TWELFTH NIGHT was stuffed into his mouth post mortem. No one is quite sure what this is supposed to mean.

Oh dear, I’m suddenly not liking the fact that I’m the only Shakespearean-named player left alive.

:: wishes she had Autolycus for company ::

[Kat]

@Pygmy Rugger

His last sentence is the most important. Of the four people he lists, Ague and cowgirl are dead. cowgirl was presumably killed by the Mafia. That makes me think that the SK killed sturm last night, because they didn’t want him to continue pushing this line of thinking. brewha and Queuing should be looked at very closely, IMHO.

This makes hell of a lot of sense. Even if it wasn’t the SK that killed sturmhauke, Mafia could have taken him out for the same reason.

Right now Queuing is much higher on my suspicion list than brewha is, based on what he posted last night. (I’d like to clarify for Queuing that I am not suspicious of him for posting, but for the actual content of the posts.)

[StarvingButStrong]

**Sturmhauke ** - Mason

and

**Cowgirl ** - Guardian Angel

are both dead.

Oh, dear. Farewell, may angels sing thee to…well, to the Forbidden thread, I guess. At least you died with cheesecake in your bellies.

This day will end in 96 hours on Saturday at 8:30 am pacific time.

Take note, you people who mostly don’t post on weekends.
I started rereading all of Aguecheek’s posts yesterday, and tonight I’ll do the same for Cowgirl – I suggest all townies should do the same. Hopefully something new will strike us, now that their orientation is known for sure.
So, 12 people. Likely 4 scum, 1 SK, 7 townies. :eek:

Working though the possible futures:

A) If we kill the SK today, tonight the Mafia kill a townie
-----------at dawn it would be: 4 scum 6 townies

B) If we kill a mafia today and
----- B1) the mafia kill the SK and
-------- B1a) the SK kills a mafia
----------- at dawn it would be: 2 scum 7 townies
-------- B1b) the SK kills a townie
----------- at dawn it would be: 3 scum 6 townies

----- B2) the mafia kill a townie and
-------- B2a) the SK kills a mafia
----------- at dawn it would be: 2 scum 1 sk 6 townies
-------- B2b) the SK kills a townie
-----------at dawn it would be: 3 scum 1 sk 5 townies
C) If we kill a townie today and
----- C1) the mafia kill the SK and
-------- C1a) the SK kills a mafia
----------- at dawn it would be: 3 scum 6 townies
-------- C1b) the SK killa a townie
----------- at dawn it would be: 4 scum 5 townies

----- C2) the mafia kill a townie and
-------- C2a) the SK kills a mafia
----------- at dawn it would be: 3 scum 1 sk 5 townies
-------- C2b) the SK kills a townie
----------- at dawn it would be: 4 scum 1 sk 4 townies
Of coures, the mafia can choose not to kill, and if the SK is alive at dusk, so could s/he, but…
The question is, which set of futures would be better for the town to aim for? A or B/C? I think it’s clear that for chances of town winning B > A > C. But is A better or worse than B/C?
In a weird way, right now it seems like we are playing chicken with the mafia: we both need the SK to die eventually, OTOH, forcing the OTHER side to take out the SK is better for your side’s chances. Which of us will swerve first?

But then, there’s the asymmetry of the Mafia needing the SK dead before they become the majority, while Town only needs the SK dead before the last Mafia goes away…

:: sigh ::

It’s too complicated for me. Can someone else say what’s the best course for us to follow? Do we try to kill the SK or a Mafia?

[Santo_Rugger]

@Kat

This makes hell of a lot of sense. Even if it wasn’t the SK that killed sturmhauke, Mafia could have taken him out for the same reason.

Right now Queuing is much higher on my suspicion list than brewha is, based on what he posted last night. (I’d like to clarify for Queuing that I am not suspicious of him for posting, but for the actual content of the posts.)

What did Queuing say last night, other than whining about brewha picking on him.

When I looked back at last night to find out, I remembered cowgirl didn’t get any of Kat’s posts in the quad digits. I’m slightly suspicious that her life was ended midway through her analysis. It would be stronger, but there’s much greater reasons scum would have wanted her dead.