Werewolf - a game.

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
621

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]

What I really want to know is why **Rysto **was killed. He only made two posts of any significance. In the first, he accused One And Only Wanderers, and also cast suspicion on JSexton, Kythereia, and Menocchio. In the other, he changed his vote from OAOW to Menocchio.

By the time he voted for Menocchio, the ball was already rolling, and I don’t think it was going to stop. His was the fourth in five consecutive posts to vote for him. So if it was a retaliation kill, why Rysto? Why not Ogre, who voted just a few posts earlier, or JSexton, who was the first to vote, on the now-famous “third vote” rule? Is it possible that he also named other werewolves as well? Since I think we all agree at this point that OAOW is not a werewolf, that leaves Kythereia (now dnooman) and JSexton as potential candidates. We can’t tell anything from Kythereia’s postings (since there weren’t any), and dnooman have voted for Miller, JSexton, and OAOW in day 2, only to reverse all of those votes. JSexton was clearly suspicious of OAOW until his declaration, and has spent the time since discussing strategy without tipping his hand in any direction. Either one could be werewolf; either one could be a townie. There’s just not enough evidence to go on.

[/QUOTE]

I believe that Kythereia was voted for because of her silence, as evidenced by Rysto’s statement “- Kythereia not posting much is out of character”. I had no control over her posting frequency, I wasn’t even playing the game yet!

Indeed I voted for **Miller, JSexton, and OAOW **. In day two, seven people voted for Miller and OAOW, five people voted for JSexton. I reversed those because OAOW outed himself, JSexton seemed like less of a candidate for being a wolf, and Miller decided to finally come out and play.

I see that you “started having exactly the opposite thoughts”, does that mean that you, as well as many of us, have realized that there is very little certain at this point, or does it mean that you’re playing both sides of the field to CYA*?

Right now, my strategy is to pressure people via votes (the higher number the better) to see how they react. Apart from dead men’s trails, we have little else to go on.

If my voting pattern is making people nervous, good. I hope to make the wolves nervous and/or pissed at me, possibly enough to eat me (but hopefully just enough to make a mistake in a post). If I am lynched or eaten as a result, it doesn’t matter to me, I’ll gladly take one for the team. I just hope it would result in a wolf being outed, or at least making one more obvious.

I guess we’ll know more once we lynch someone and the wolves eat someone.

[sub]*cover your ass[/sub]

622

[QUOTE=dnooman]
I see that you “started having exactly the opposite thoughts”, does that mean that you, as well as many of us, have realized that there is very little certain at this point, or does it mean that you’re playing both sides of the field to CYA*?
[/quote]

It means the former, as I have stated on several occasions

It doesn’t make me nervous at all. My point was that we could gain nothing from Kythereia’s posts (because she didn’t make any), and that you, as her replacement, hadn’t established any sort of pattern from which we could draw any inferences either.

623

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]

It doesn’t make me nervous at all. My point was that we could gain nothing from Kythereia’s posts (because she didn’t make any), and that you, as her replacement, hadn’t established any sort of pattern from which we could draw any inferences either.
[/QUOTE]

Fair enough.

624

Where’s Ogre?

625

You know, I was suspicious of Ogre, especially so because of his recent failure to defend himself against the bandwagon that is forming against him. However, his vote against **Menocchio **in the first day was crucial in Menocchio’s lynching. On reflection, I think we have to give him credit that he wouldn’t have inadvertently jump started the lagging Menocchio bandwagon on that first day if he were a wolf.

So I unvote Ogre. I hope that volatility in voting is not seen as a scum tell (there’s a Kerry joke in there somewhere).

626

I’m here. I’m just sunk up to my neck in work this weekend. I moved rocks all day yesterday, went to a conference on buying local food (especially from farmers’ markets,) I’m grading tons of research papers, I have a test on molecular genetics Tuesday, and I have a presentation on population genetics of glade-endemic plants in a week or so.

I’m still scanning the thread and being all non-werewolfy over here.

…and I still think you have doggy breath, JSexton. :slight_smile:

627

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
That’s the kicker, isn’t it? The only people we can trust are the dead ones.
[/QUOTE]

Right. Which is why expressing your opinions is important, so that when we can trust you, there’s something worrth trusting, if you follow.

628

I don’t particularly think Miller or Ogre are werewolves, but absent any new earth shattering revelations one of them is going to have a date with the hangman. Note that Ogre voted for Menocchio late in the first day, about 16 realtime hours before Rev posted the final results. If Ogre is a werewolf and was trying some sort of misdirection, doing so late in the day, with little time to reverse things if it went badly (which it did, from a werewolf’s point of view), was a really dumb idea. So I don’t think Ogre is a werewolf.

That leaves Miller. All that can be said with relative confidence is that he isn’t a Mason. He hasn’t claimed to be anything else, which most likely means he’s just a townie. And yet, the Cecilton Criminal Code requires that we hang someone every day. Untill we can do something about that Executioners Local 316, our hands are tied.

629

Frankly, I agree. I’m not really seeing Miller as a werewolf, but I’m fresh out of other candidates. Certainly nothing strong enough to warrant pushing for so late in the day. But at least information will be gleaned.

Miller: Since you seem likeliest to be lynched, would you mind putting out a summary of your thoughts so far? Who is scum, who is town, etc?

630

[QUOTE=JSexton]
Frankly, I agree. I’m not really seeing Miller as a werewolf, but I’m fresh out of other candidates. Certainly nothing strong enough to warrant pushing for so late in the day. But at least information will be gleaned.

Miller: Since you seem likeliest to be lynched, would you mind putting out a summary of your thoughts so far? Who is scum, who is town, etc?
[/QUOTE]

As much as it pains me, I have to agree wholeheartedly with this post. :wink:

At this point, I have my suspicions about half the town. **One And Only Wanderers **is “safe”, because I believe he’s a Mason. Ogre, Kat, and **Captain Carrot **were collectively responsible for getting **Menocchio **lynched, so it seems likely that they are townies, unless there was some sort of werewolf coup going on. (**sturmhauke **also voted for Menocchio, but that was late Thursday night with a 10 AM Friday deadline, so it’s *conceivable *that he could be a werewolf, and just voted to throw off suspicion since it was pretty much a done deal at that point.)

I’d like to see both **Miller ***and ***Ogre **come out with their best arguments why they should not be lynched. Miller hasn’t posted in two days, and Ogre has just the one post earlier today. For a couple of guys who are neck-and-neck on getting strung up by the neck, you’d think they would be protesting just a bit more. If people aren’t going to contribute to the discussion, and they aren’t going to defend themselves, then we might just be better off without them.

631

Lord, people. This is not a lifetime commitment for me. I have many other things to do. My vote’s in, with my justification. I’ve argued that I’m not a werewolf based on the fact that helping string up the Alpha Wolf in some bizarre wheels-within-wheels Harkonnen-esque “diversionary tactic” would have been a fucking stupid thing to do. I stick by that fact. I’m not a werewolf.

632

I’m back.

I really don’t think Ogre is a werewolf. I don’t know if Miller is either, but at this point, don’t know who else to point the ol’ FOS at. My vote for Miller stands, barring another amazing revelation by someone.

633

Whadd’ya mean “not a lifetime committment”?!? This is the SDMB, man! What could possibly be more important?
I must say, when I preview my posts I should probably check *content *as well as spelling. I see that in my last post I said that **Ogre **was most likely not a werewolf, and then a few sentences later told him that he’d better come in and defend himself (which he did, and quite colorfully too).

:smack:

Sorry, Ogre.

634

I think we might have a bit of a problem here.

At the time **One And Only Wanderers **came out as a Mason, eighteen of the nineteen people still in the game had cast votes (**sturmhauke **being the exception). After all of the backtracking, unvoting, and revoting, we now have only twelve “active” votes by my count.

If we assume that this reduction in votes is due to the fact that our fine citizens are reluctant to cast aspersions on another innocent man, than that means that the remaining votes are likely to be heavily influenced by the werewolves. After all, they don’t need to worry about accidentally lynching the “wrong” person. If they can control (or even influence) the voting, they can get rid of two townspeople in one day.

By that token, I’m starting to take a closer look at the people who are trying to get rid of Miller. As several others have pointed out, he doesn’t seem to have done anything particularly “wolflike”, so why *are *people trying to off him?

Or am I just being paranoid?

635

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
I must say, when I preview my posts I should probably check *content *as well as spelling. I see that in my last post I said that **Ogre **was most likely not a werewolf, and then a few sentences later told him that he’d better come in and defend himself (which he did, and quite colorfully too).
[/QUOTE]

No, I think the recommendation that a frontrunner come in and defend himself is a good one even if you think they’re not a werewolf. Perhaps especially if you think they’re not a werewolf, since you would rather they not get lynched in that situation.

I forgot that Ogre and my votes are pretty much what turned the Menocchio vote into a bandwagon and took him out, which I doubt a werewolf would have wanted. So I’m gonna unvote Ogre and go back to harrassing moonstarssun.

636

I am probably going to regret it because all I’m going on is my gut about the bandwagon votes. But I’m going to unvote Richard Parker and vote moonstarsun. But this is a bandwagon vote, too. If Kat hadn’t switched, I wouldn’t either. I’m not feeling the Miller wagon. Gah. What a game.

637

[QUOTE=Kat]
So I’m gonna unvote Ogre and go back to harrassing moonstarssun.
[/QUOTE]

Can you remind us why, exactly? I ask because this vote falls in line with my suspicions above.

What happens if the town’s vote ends in a tie?

638

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
What happens if the town’s vote ends in a tie?
[/QUOTE]

The mod picks someone, I think.

What falls in line with your suspicions above? If it’s a vote for moonstarsun, I commented earlier that after looking at votes I saw that she only voted twice, and both times were to jump on a bandwagon.

639

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
By that token, I’m starting to take a closer look at the people who are trying to get rid of Miller. As several others have pointed out, he doesn’t seem to have done anything particularly “wolflike”, so why *are *people trying to off him?
[/quote]

The only thing that Miller has done that is 'wolf-like" is only post when someone mentions his name. He is obviously watching the game and has been posting on the board today, but is deliberately posting very little here. Now, that could mean he’s a werewolf, or that he thinks it will save his ass if he says less, or something else. When you post so little, people don’t have much to go on.

I don’t feel really great about voting for Miller. Most of my motivation is my desire to encourage people to post more, and penalize those who post little by viewing that behavior with suspicion, but now I look at the post count and see that moonstarsun, hocow, and **Captain Carrot ** have all posted less often than Miller. So there goes that idea.

I don’t know what to do. I could unvote Miller, but my next vote would likely be just as random and just as wrong. It’d be sheer luck for us to get a werewolf again, so the horrid fact is, we’re probably going to be lynching a fellow townie. There’s no way to feel good about that.

Anyone have anything enlightening to say? I’d change my vote if I had a good reason, but I have no great reason to do so, and unvoting with no one new to vote for would be counterproductive and rewarding a strategy (not posting) that I personally don’t want to endorse.

:confused: :confused: :confused:

Very likely, yes, but what else is there to do? :smack:

640

[QUOTE=jsgoddess]
What falls in line with your suspicions above?
[/QUOTE]

In my post, I said that I was starting to become suspicious of the people who had voted for Miller. Then you changed your vote to moonstarssun, who had previously voted for Miller.