Werewolf - a game.

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
1221

Sorry to keep you guys waiting. I had to pick up dinner on the way home, then I had to read the flurry of posts, and now I’m composing what may be my last major strategy post before I get killed. So let’s get to business.

Yeah, you’d like that, wouldn’t you? Your false claim led to the deaths of Cookies and Ogre, the real GA, may they both rest in peace. Vote MadTheSwine.

But wait, I’m not done. See, I didn’t investigate MadTheSwine last night. If he was the real GA, he’d be dead now. Especially after the Winston incident, a normal townie should know better than to false claim, much less claim to be the GA given the high stakes right now. That leaves the overwhelming probability that he is a werewolf. I could have confirmed that he was, but I thought it would be a waste of my powers, in the same manner that I thought it would be a waste to confirm that Wanderers was a Mason.

So who did I investigate instead? Someone who questioned that I was the really the Seer. Someone who prodded his packmate into a false GA claim to buy time. Someone who desperately wanted me to waste my time investigating said packmate, so that he could hopefully pass unnoticed a little longer. Someone who is now voting for his packmate to make himself look good.

dnooman is a werewolf.

I will most likely die tonight. dnooman may try to cast doubt on me by letting me live, but that will let me investigate other people to narrow the suspect list further, in case there is a 5th wolf lurking about. He can’t really afford to do that. Here is my latest analysis. The following is the list of remaining players:

dnooman (werewolf)
MadTheSwine (false GA, probably a werewolf)
Captain Carrot
unfinished symphony (replaced smiling bandit)
Kat
Suburban Plankton
Enginerd
sturmhauke
One And Only Wanderers (probably a Mason)
jsgoddess Townsperson
Richard Parker Townsperson

Removing players with known or highly probable identies, we are left with:

Captain Carrot
unfinished symphony (replaced smiling bandit)
Kat
Suburban Plankton

One or two of them are Masons. If there are any other werewolves, which is highly unlikely, then they will be hiding here.

1222

Beautiful work, sturmhauke. You’re playing smarter than I did. Well done.

1223

Thank you. Your sacrifice will not be in vain.

1224

That was smart sturmhauke …good call,course it doesn’t help my claims at all…but why in the name of god would you vote for me(which i understand the suspicion,I have tried to explain myself) over a confirmed wolf?

1225

…assuming, of course, that you aren’t a wolf. :slight_smile:

1226

vote MadTheSwine

even if you are town you still deserve to swing. there is a principle to this game known as Lynch All Liars. The thing that makes me really think you’re a wolf though, is last nights wolfie snack choice. See if you were a vanilla townie, the wolves would have had no reason to disbelieve you. I find it really hard to believe that if they had a choice between a mason, a seer and a GA they would go after a vanilla. Ergo the wolves knew you were not the GA. How would they know that? Because you’re one of them.

1227

Winston’s false claim, while foolish, did not greatly affect the game. It made my task a bit harder, but that was not a huge obstacle. Your false claim has greatly damaged our position. If you are a werewolf, this could have been to your benefit, except that the killing of Ogre now leads everyone to you anyway. If you are a townie, then your act led directly to the death of another townie in your stead, and indirectly to the death of the true GA. In that case, nothing I say will save you.

You say that Ogre brought his death upon himself, but I don’t believe that. If you are a wolf, then of course you would be immune to being eaten. Regardless of Ogre’s somewhat careless post early last night, he was already a likely target. It is to the werewolves’ advantage to kill people that are off the suspect list, as their deaths do not reduce its size. I am only saying this now because you and dnooman appear to have figured that out for yourselves. If you are a townie, the wolves would not have taken the chance that someone else was the real GA and you’d be dead. Unless you somehow imagine that Ogre decided to protect you. I see on preview that Wanderers agrees with me in advance. Told you nothing I say will save you.

1228

Good job sturmhauke, I’m a werewolf. You got really lucky because you were going to be dinner the night after you claimed. Either way, you die tonight.

Masons. OAOW, Enginerd and Suburban Plankton. Kat is an alternate, just in case there was any tricky voting going on amongst the masons.

sturmhauke may be the Seer, like I said, he dies tonight regardless.

Ogre was one of two possible GA candidates. The other one removed themself from the pool, kind of.

I have to tip my hat to OAOW for voting for nearly everyone! Even if my Mason picks are a bit off, at least I got the GA killed.

I’m not sure, should we kill masons, or townies?
The town’s lucky vote for Mennochio (don’t say it wasn’t luck unless you’re a psychic) made things a lot easier for the town.

After we kill sturmhauke, there’s little else we can do.

Ogre you are dead. No posting right? Take solace in the fact that you were slated to be killed on night one.

I’ll post something about how I was sure that Ogre was the GA, and how I decided to have him killed on the “other threads”. Granted, it was never my decision alone.

Were the first person killed not the “alpha wolf” the game would have ended up differently. Lucky guess.

1229

Unvote Captain Carrot…vote dnooman We got one boys!!!

Lets string em up!!

I got the rope!!

Follow me!!!

1230

So you admit it then. You were a worthy adversary. You had us going for a good while there, hiding behind the “I can’t be responsible for Kythereia’s silence” gambit. I must warn you though, sturmhauke soufflé won’t taste so good.

You Masons may want to consider all coming out in the open today. At this point I think your value will be greater if all the townies know who you are before you get killed, in the event that there are more wolves hiding. dnooman may have you all pegged, I don’t know for sure since I haven’t investigated any of the names he listed. Don’t reveal yourselves just on my word, though. Give it some thought.

Just for the sake of argument, I’m going to list a few scenarios. Today is Day 6, and there are 11 players remaining. This game can theoretically run until Day 10, at which time there will be 3 players remaining - 1 wolf and two townies/specialists. There can be no more than a maximum of 5 living wolves today, or they’ve already won.

Let’s say that I’m actually a werewolf, and dnooman isn’t really going to kill me. That might mean that MTS is really just a townie, and we set him up to hang. But then we’ll be next, since we both pushed for him to hang. Or, MTS is a werewolf and he hangs, and then you hang dnooman next since he admitted he’s one. If at that time the game isn’t over, I’m next since I should have been killed already. Hell, even if dnooman is a townie pretending to be a wolf for the purpose of taking me down when he gets lynched, it would work pretty well, since I’ve claimed I’m the Seer and he’s a wolf. My fate would be absolutely sealed on Day 8, with 7 players remaining. There could be from 1 to 3 Masons left on Day 8, with the possible addition of the real Seer since we’re pretending I’m not the Seer. Say you lynch me then, but the game goes on. On Day 9, there would be 5 players left, possibly with no Masons. Well, I suppose at that point the town would be pretty well screwed. But that would mean Revenant put too many werewolves in the game, really.

Ah, all this hypothetical nonsense is making my brain hurt. I’m trying to come up with scenarios in which the werewolves can pull out a win, so that the town can prepare itself. Also, I’m looking for a checkmate scenario, so I can deny dnooman the pleasure of dinner at my place. :stuck_out_tongue:

And one more thing. If you have all unvoted MTS when I wake up in, uh, a few hours, I will be very disappointed. Stick a fork in him already.

1231

Pfft.
What are you King of Cecilton? NO…you are just some freakish abomination practicing the black arts.

People of Cecilton… If sturmhauke told you to jump in a lake would you do it?

I think it would be wiser to lynch dnoowolfman.

1232

whilst i do think MadTheSwine is a wolf, I am going to go with the 100% option over the 99% option.

unvote MadTheSwine
vote dnooman

1233

I’ve had some “quiet time” to think about this while I drove to work. I think I may have overdone it a bit.

WARNING: Wild, unsubstantiated conspiracy theories ahead!. Please ensure your BS filters are securely fastened before continuing to read this post.

[wild, unsubstantiated conspiracy theory]

I got to wondering why **dnooman **would come out with a confession the way he did. Of course, there is an obvious answer: the Seer fingered him, so he could no longer hide. But still, something was tugging at the back of my mind. So he was “outed”; why then give a detailed confession in which, among other things, he states his opinions on who the Masons are? That tells the entire town that those three people are not werewolves, and gives us three fewer people to be suspicious of. (Of course, it’s possible that he might try to stick some of his werewolf buddies on the “Mason” list to protect them, but we can cross that bridge if and when we come to it.)

So why confess and make the job easier for the town at the same time? The only reason I can think of is to protect other werewolves. It can’t be just to save MadTheSwine, because we would just go ahead and lynch him tomorrow anyway. That means there must be another wolf hiding somewhere, but who?

Obviously, its sturmhauke. I’m sure we all wondered why he didn’t investigate MTS last night. He said it was because there was no need. And since Ogre was eaten overnight, he’s correct. We know that MTS was not the GA, so he’s most likely a werewolf. But what if the wolves had not eaten Ogre last night? What if Ogre had protected himself, or if the wolves had eaten OAOW, to prevent him from being able to give us the names of the other Masons? Then MTS’s claim would still be unproven, and the lack of the Seer’s knowledge would be a detriment. sturmhauke chose not to investigate MTS so that he could finger dnooman, who was obviously on everybody’s list anyway, and would have been a likely target for the following night. This keeps MTS alive for one more night, during which sturmhauke is free to uncover another “werewolf”. My guess would be Captain Carrot or uunfinished symphony, since they are already under suspicion. By the time we lynch them and find out that sturmhauke is a big fat liar, the werewolves will have eliminated three more townspeople, and maybe got lucky enough to take out the real Seer as well. They get two more overnight by the time we lynch both sturmhauke and MTS, and the numbers don’t look so good for the town anymore.

Of course, this means there must be at least one other werewolf to keep the plan rolling. That would, of course, be Richard Parker. There would have been no reason for sturmhauke to have saved him from his lynching if he were a townsperson. And most likely, **jsgoddess **is actually a werewolf too, though it is possible that sturmhauke identified a real townie when he made his false Seer claim, just to throw us off.

So there you go. The remaining werewolves are:
**
dnooman
MadTheSwine
sturmhauke
Richard Parker
jsgoddess**

[/wild, unsubstantiated conspiracy theory]

At this point, I do have one procedural question. Are the werewolves allowed to communicate with each other outside this thread? Because the theory above really works a whole lot better if they are allowed to talk amongst themselves. If not, then there would need to be some serious mind reading going on to make it all work. Although I think mind reading might be an inherent werewolf trait… :slight_smile:

Wild theories aside, I can think of no possible reason why dnooman would have admitted being a werewolf if he wasn’t one. Maybe he’s protecting someone, maybe he’s not. But one thing seems absolutely certain: dnooman is a werewolf. I say we hang him, and then we can go after MadTheSwine tomorrow.

Unvote MadTheSwine
Vote dnooman

1234

this is why, if sturmhauke is lying (unlikely imo), the real seer needs to come out, Although at this point they may as well wait until tomorrow, as long as they believe we would be able to work out their info (through breadcrumbing) if they are eaten.

also 5 remaining werewolves??? if that were the case this game would have been hugely unbalanced. i think we have 3 more maximum.

1235

If the game started with 7 wolves, that means that our game moderator hates the town and wanted the town to lose. That’s a huge number of werewolves given their advantages.

dnooman’s confession is bizarre.

sturmhauke’s claim to have investigated dnooman isn’t bizarre to me at all.

If we believe that both MTS and dnooman are wolves, it doesn’t matter in what order we take them out.

1236

Something feels wrong about this, but oh well! Unvote MTS, Vote Dnooman.

1237

I agree, Richard Parker. Something doesn’t feel quite right about this. That’s why I’m not changing my vote. I have a gut feeling that MtS is a werewolf.

1238

Anyone see the same google-ad as I do?

You Become A Werewolf
Move your career forward with an accredited online degree!

I took AP classes in Vampire, you think they’ll apply?

1239

Nah, I’m getting a Peace Flags one from www.ThePeaceCompany.com

Maybe it’s trying to say that townspeople and wolfies can learn to get along?? :smiley:

(runs away.)

1240

dnooman’s confession seems geared toward drawing all the votes his way. Who benefits if he does that? Only another werewolf.

It’s one thing to do what the werewolves want inadvertently. It’s another thing for the werewolves to spell out what they want and the town goes along with it. MTS was trying very hard to get people to stop voting to stop the countdown. Now dnooman tries hard (by confessing) to get the votes switched to stop the countdown or start a new one or just to drag things out for purposes that I can’t begin to imagine.

The 100% confirmed information we have is that MTS lied about being the GA. Everything else has at least some element of assumption to it.