Hillary has been leading there by something like 29%. It will be hard for her to exceed expectations but easy for her to miss them. Even seating MI and FL those votes and delegates would change naught, nor change her story line.
Since is insisting on Huckabeeing herself I wonder if her supporters will end up just staying home next week. Would a poor performance there be her final act at long last? Will she spend on ads there or just use the run to try to raise funds to pay down debt? Will she go into rallying mode even as she runs?
Appalachian democrats will come out for Hillary in droves. Obama has zero chance of winning there no matter what he does…other than miraculously becoming white. Even if Hillary drops out before the primary I’m convinced she will still win big there.
On Edit: Yes, West Virginia does matter to Hillary. If she wins big in WV and KY, and gets the MI and FL delegations seated without compromise, she may be able to get close.
We have not been hearing much about West Virginia because…well…it’s West Virginia. They are not delegate rich (39 total), even if she won by 60% she’d still be in the same position. She will grand stand until June 4th. And hopefully bow out then.
Believe me, if she can get the vote here in WV, she’s not going to have a problem, seeing as this state is very anti-woman/anti-black candidate. When Charlotte Pritt ran for Gov. several years back, you heard “I ain’t votin’ to put no woman in the Gov’s seat!” more than anything else. We shall see.
As far as I’m concerned, it’s rather telling that both Hillary and McCain welcome and even court the support of bigots and racists, unlike Obama who, when his guy shot off too much at the mouth, told him to take a hike.
Here’s the comment of one Hillary supporter in West Virginia:
“I can’t believe he went to that church for 20 years without hearing some of that,” Alice Peters, a St. Albans resident, said of Obama. "I don’t think you’d go to many white churches and find that kind of thing."You mean like Westboro Baptist? Bitch.
Depends on what part of the state you’re in. Northern Panhandle, not so much, same goes for the Eastern Panhandle which is pretty much a bedroom community for people who work in DC. Once you leave the Charleston area [state capitol], the anti-woman/anti-black sentiments start to crop up publicly. Here in town, you hear it but not as often or as publicly.
Granted, there’s all kinds of folk who are trying to make the state move forward but when you have such a large redneck population, it’s almost impossible, IMO.
Because how she leaves matters. Democrats (and not just Obama but down ticket across the board) need her to leave in a way that helps pull her partisans back into the fold. Okay, maybe not “need”, but would greatly benefit from.
If we give her a blowout 2-to-1 win, she’d probably get 26 delegates to Obama’s 13. Plus 13, when she’s down by 150 or more at this stage? Sorry, but West Virginia really doesn’t matter. It looks like she’ll take it at least until the following primaries, when she’ll win Kentucky (total of 60) and he’ll win Oregon (total of 65). Those will probably cancel each other out, am I right? At that point she’s still losing by 140 or so, assuming Obama doesn’t get any more superdelegates in the next few weeks - yeah, right, that’ll happen - and the three remaining primaries have 110 pledged delegates, total. And I think Obama is expected to win Montana and South Dakota anyway, isn’t he?
Even with those unrealistic assumptions, West Virginia doesn’t matter unless she loses. The news channels may try to make it into a big thing to get a day or two of news out of it, but if they’re saying “it’s over” now - and they are - they won’t be able to ignore the obvious for long.
Adding: if RTFirefly is right, I’ve also lumped in superdelegates with the regular ones, and they’re not going to break the same way. She’s really far out into “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts” territory.
Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination have become slim to none - and slim looks to be leaving town.
Here’s how it breaks down: Right now, Obama leads Clinton by nearly 700,000 votes, if you don’t count Michigan and Florida. Clinton was on the ballot in both states; Obama was not on the Michigan ballot, though many of his supporters voted “uncommitted.” If you count only the votes cast for the candidates in both states - and thus don’t count uncommitted for Obama - Obama would still have a national vote lead of more than 73,000 votes. If you give Michigan’s uncommitted vote to Obama, he would lead by over 310,000. And if only Florida were counted, Obama would lead by more than 400,000 votes. Under every scenario, Clinton does not claim the popular vote lead. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/07/politics/main4078586.shtml
No. WV does not matter. We could have prevented then Gov. Bush in '00 (what is it with this state?) but we’re far too small to help Sen. Clinton now. She’ll get good numbers from us and KY that she’ll take to the rules meeting 5/31 but it won’t be enough.
I grew up in West Virginia. You are right. I would add NorthCentral WV from Morgantown to Clarksburg along I-79 to your “not so much” list, but everywhere else, yes. Tons of voters simply will not vote for Obama because he is black.
Tons of other voters across the country won’t vote for Obama because he’s black, but they at least keep that to themselves. Too many West Virginians will say that in a town hall meeting and keep the negative stereotype alive…
Here’s a depressing piece from WV Public Radio last week. It interviews folks from the small town of Man, WV. (About 45 miles straight-line SSW from Charleston, 70 miles driving, 150 years away in some respects.) Listen to the audio for the best/worst parts.