I don’t know enough about Russia’s demographics and ethnic composition to venture a guess, but then I read posts from @Stranger_On_A_Train and @LSLGuy in the “End-game” thread and I start to wonder: what are the chances that the Russian federation will break up? Is there any unrest in the Far East of Russia? Areas where non-Russians are the majority or substantial minority?
(This isn’t really a Great Debate, since I have no position, but not a Factual Question either, so I’ve stuck it in IMHO.)
Russian regimes have always been aware of the possibility of their empire breaking up. The Putin regime may be brutal but they’re not incompetent. They’re watching for the signs and are willing to use force when those signs appear.
They don’t have to worry very much about public opinion going against them either. I feel that most Russians are opposed to the idea of parts of the country breaking away and would support the regime suppressing any secessionist movements.
The only way is see any break-up happening is if the Putin regime collapses and there is fighting among various factions over who takes power next. In a case like that, there might be a period when the various contenders pull their supporting forces in to the center of the country and that could create an opening for secessionists out on the fringe. But whichever faction gains power will quickly move to gather these breakaway regions back under its control.
Russia was demographically fucked before this disastrous invasion of Ukraine, and it has gotten dramatically worse since. Frankly, it is difficult to see Russia even being a functional nation twenty-five years from now notwithstanding that their internal industrial base is essentially on its last legs.
Unfortunately, I’m not sure the rest of the world has much more time, either.