What Are The Odds of Trump Being Primaried in 2020?

I grant you, a long way to go until then…but I think it’s a definite possibility, with Ted Cruz or John Kasich being the likely candidates.

Just thinking out loud…as they say. I’ll be interested to see if there are any thoughts.

Anyone can run in a primary. The real question is whether Cruz or Kasich or Rubio or whomever can steal from Trump a whole passel of voters who didn’t want to vote for a “politician” in the first place.

The chances that a Republican will run against Trump in the next primary election is 100%, if Trump is still the P-word then.

FYI, we did this 2 weeks ago.

Will Trump face a primary challenge in 2020?

If I get my wish, 0%, because he will have a heart attack and die some time this year.

(I’m thinking a Pence presidency, awful as it would be, is maybe an acceptable price to pay for Steve Bannon getting kicked to the curb.)

And he’s already doing a magnificent job in their eyes.

The chances of Trump losing are pretty close to 0. Even Jimmy Carter was renominated in 1980 with relative ease.

I think that in any situation where a primary challenger could win, Trump would have already found some excuse to resign and leave Pence holding the bag.

I resent your mentioning the two men’s name together. Jimmy Carter is a decent human being with the best intentions who has consistently put others’ interests before his own.

Yep, I have to agree it is a 100% guarantee there will be at least one, if not more, Republicans running in the nominating primaries against 45 leading up to reelection in 2020.

I’d bet the farm on it.

Of course, if he is no longer in office then the above clearly doesn’t apply. But I don’t see any reason to think President Pence would go unchallenged either.

I’d love to see Trump primaried in 2020, but I can’t see any prominent Republican taking him on.

I’ll probably be stuck again with someone of Evan McMullin’s stature.

I’ll repeat my prediction that Cruz will run in 2020, and at the current rate win the Republican nomination.

Jimmy Carter is a great man. As president he was thwarted mainly by lady luck- the Iranian hostage crisis, oil embargo, inflation. Donald is not fit to let Jimmy pee in his mouth.

If Trump survives his first four years without being impeached or resigning, it will be because he or the people around him have figured out how to keep his mouth shut and just get on with doing business. In that case, he might actually have decent approval ratings and talk of a primary challenge will fade.

More likely is that he will get primaried if he moves away from Republican policies. He’s already hinting that if Republicans won’t do health care, he may start talking to Democrats to enact new health care.

If tax reform doesn’t happen, the regulatory reform doesn’t happen, and Trump basiscally becomes a president known for border walls and tariffs, he’ll get primaried from the right for sure. They voted for Trump in spite of his manifest faults because they felt that the traditional Republican party wasn’t listening to their concerns. If Trump does the same, their patience with him will be gone by the midterms.

Jimmy Carter is the most recent sitting President to face a noteworthy primary challenge from within his own party when he was up for re-election. It’s absolutely a valid reference for this conversation regardless of the differences between the two men.

SDMB official prediction: Trump will not make it 4 years.

Republicans have a very, very deep bench of assholes worse than Trump. If Trump doesn’t get his shit done, one of them will run.

The problem with trying to primary Trump is that Trump - if defeated in the primaries - would have about 3 months of time in the Oval Office to wreak immense havoc on the GOP in retaliation. If he isn’t going to be the Republican nominee for November 2020, but is still sitting president from Aug-Nov 2020, then he could deliberately be as destructive and calamitous as possible in those three months in order to prevent whomever toppled him - be it Cruz, Sasse, Ryan, etc. - from getting the presidency.

Spite is a powerful motive.


The thread isn’t about Trump’s merits vs. Carter’s as a person. It’s about the topic of incumbents facing primary challengers. To complain, “But Carter was a much better person!” is veering completely off topic.

John F. Kennedy and Osama bin Laden were both killed by being shot in the head. That doesn’t make the two men equivalent. But in a thread discussing anatomy, firearm ballistics and gunshot wounds, it would be a totally valid comparison.

The Republicans have plenty of gadflies that might consider running, but it probably won’t be anyone serious. Someone like Rand Paul might try, similar to how Pat Buchanan ran against the elder Bush in 1992. I don’t see Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, Ben Sasse, etc. running.