I still think Trump can win this election, but if and only if he can do with this KKK/Duke thing what he did with Megyn Kelly, McCain, blanket Muslim Ban (instead of just lowering Muslim immigration, which people would’ve supported) etc., and something tells me he may have gone too far for the general election, even tho southern hicks will eat him up on Tuesday.
If Trump loses because of independent voters and voters of the religious right who don’t quite trust him, which does seem to be an issue, and the establishment sabotages him, who do they nominate in 2020 to go against President Hillary Clinton?
I suspect it will be one of the following:
Nikki Haley - she’ll have more experience by then than Rubio serving one term. She’ll lack the Gang of Eight stigma that will demolish Rubio tomorrow night. She’ll be on hand to take some of that female vote from Hillary. Her anti-choice credentials are rather strong, but not too strong like Rubio; Haley believes in exceptions for life of mother, rape/incest.
Marco Rubio - the GOP establishment will martyr him, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shoot for a governorship or a House seat. He made a mistake resigning from the Senate pending the end of his term, which is soon.
Allen West - military service, political experience, which together make him more “qualified” than Rubio, and most importantly, non-white skin, so unlike Rubio, he’s not an empty dark suit (pun intended).
Jeff Flake was pretty well-liked once, but they don’t have a great record with Mormons or Arizonans, do they?
Brian Sandoval won’t do it in the party as it is now, and presumably can’t.
Marco Rubio may come back, I guess? Or is he done with politics?
Maybe Jon Huntsman?
I think the process has gone too far over into “show” and “circus” and was going that way *before *Trump.
Maybe we’ll see Tom Cotton, with Rand Paul and Ted Cruz back again; that seems possible.
I’m not convinced Haley has the charisma to broaden her appeal outside her state. Her SOTU response was unremarkable and she would seriously need to step up her game if she really plans to aim for the big prize. I’m not convinced she can do it.
I think everything would depend on what he did in the interim, and also how damaged he is by the end of this campaign. If he loses the nomination to Trump he’ll probably be fine for another run (a la Romney), so of your three choices here I’d place the best odds on Rubio.
No. West is an insane, babbling idiot of the Palinesque variety. One term in the House followed by a failed re-election campaign is not a strong political record to run on, and while his military career is filled with highlights and decorations it ended somewhat ignominiously. He’s got no chance.
Flake might be an option if he can get out from the shadow of the senior Senator from Arizona; in the few appearances I’ve seen or heard of him he’s come across quite well and he’s got a very good record on spending. Plus he does that weird “desert island” thing which will play well to the voters. But he’s pro-immigration reform in a way that would disqualify him in the current GOP environment, so a lot depends on how crazy the party is in four years.
It’s way too early to tell. It will depend if the election looks like recent ones, with the usual states going red and blue and the election is won in the usual swing states by the usual margins. Also, does Trump cause the Republicans to lose the senate and a large number of house seats?
Why? If he runs and wins governor of Florida in 2018, he can’t immediately start a presidential campaign right after being inaugurated. If he runs for Florida governor and loses, he’s a two time loser. If he doesn’t run for Florida governor, he’s a failed one term senator that’s been out of the public eye for 4 years, basically a Santorum part II
Depends entirely on what the hell the GOP looks like in four years. If it fractures in half, we could end up with the Republican nominee being some mainstream party elite like Rubio plus a Conservative third party like Cruz. If the party stays together, there will be another internal struggle between these two groups, and all bets are off.
He could follow Romney’s lead - write some books, develop a PAC, appear on FoxNews on occasion to comment on how terrible President Clinton is, campaign for other Republicans in the 2018 midterms and start planning the 2020 run.
The main factor would be whether he’s got (or could get) enough money to sustain four years of such activity.
If they revert to the “it’s his turn” routine, I’d have to go with Rubio who will be the last one standing besides Trump.
Barring him, who knows? Romney? He could try and pull a Nixon and win after losing a general election. Maybe Scott Walker gives it another shot, he barely seemed to try this time out.
It will NOT be Allen West. He makes Trump look genteel and makes Carson seem rational.
Allen West? You gotta be kidding. Allen West combines the social graces of Donald Trump, the charm of Ted Cruz, the gravitas of Marco Rubio, and the intellectualism of Ben Carson.
The name of the nominee is less important than the question of what general direction the GOP goes in 2020: Will the base, in denial of the implications of Trump’s defeat, still demand a “real” RW, or yield to the establishment’s preference for an electable comparative-moderate?