How about Democrats come up with a better candidate? Then you wouldn’t have to worry about who the Republican nominee was.
I’m intrigued by the fact that if Trump wins in November:
1)There are people who voted for Trump in 2016 that
2)Did not vote for him in 2020. But a not insignificant number of them
3)Will return and vote for him in 2024
They know what he is all about per his 4 years in office and now they know what biden is all about.
And they’re willing to go back to Trump. Instead of insisting Republicans give you a better candidate (who you probably won’t vote for anyway) why don’t you look inward instead?
Or eliminate the entire primary system like I have always advocated.
Oh, puhlease. Do you believe there would be an actual, nation wide, “civil war?” If you’re suggesting some criminal thugs in large cities will riot and destroy things, maybe so. But isolated cases like that do not a civil war make.
Unfortunately I can’t think it’s lower than 50%. With age and apparent ill health of Trump and the age dispite the apparent good health of Biden I wouldn’t even attempt a guess as to what might happen by November
For whatever reason I find myself going against my usual low opinion of American groupthink, and placing his odds around 30%. I’m thinking that what we hear/see now is the bleating of a faithful minority amplified by a craven media. I find myself increasingly confident that, as Trump’s negatives continue to pile up - his ceaseless meanness, ignorance and greed, protracted legal issues, his surrounding himself with incompetence, and - yes - the continued refusal of Repubs in Congress to govern and the conservative Supremes’ continued horrendous rulings, I think enough non-insane folk will find enough reason to haul their lazy asses off their couches and vote for the clearly lesser of two evils.
I’d say around somewhere around 30%. My reasoning being:
Just going on the polls along if this was a regular election year between two regular presidential candidates, they are basically 50-50%.
Factor in the fact you have an incumbent candidate and the economy is doing decently (and polls a year out are not very predictive), I’d bump that to 60-40% in favour of the incumbent.
The is the fact that Trump need to get through the primary. Very likely that he will, but that’s still something that lengthens his odds (and we do now have a single GOP candidate running against him). Say he has 95% chance of winning, so now 62-38%.
Then you have the fact that Trump is clearly in physical and mental decline. There is a reasonable chance he does not make it to the election in a fit state to be elected. Yeah the MAGA faithful will vote for him even if he’s in a vegatitive state, but that doesn’t get him elected pres. (You could say the same for Biden healthwise, but that doesn’t mean Trump wins automatically, and IMO Biden is clearly in better shape than Trump) I’d say 1:10 chance the he’s not in a fit state to be elected* at the start of November, that gets you to 66-34%
Then there are the trials, things are not looking great there, but there is still 1:10 chance he gets a conviction of a felony (and that conviction of a felony of is enough for him not to be elected, as in I think there is over 1:10 of being convicted of a felony, but a non-zero chance that isn’t enough to ensure he’s not elected). So that takes you to 30%.
* - Yes he is not in a fit state to be elected now, but he can string a sentence together, and thats enough apparently
Biden is a totally normal, if older, candidate, running while the economy is strong, inflation is receding, and having done a pretty good job holding back our two biggest international competitors (China and Russia). There doesn’t seem to be any major corruption in the administration to date.
Trump has been credibly accused of rape, impeached twice, is facing indictments on 91 charges, has already been found liable for fraud and for defamation.
Given all of the above, I’d say it’s about 50/50 somehow.
It’s remarkable how low information most people are. And not just Trumpers.
I can’t tell you how many people I know file zero-single on their W2 for the forced savings, and then complain every week about how much is taken from their paycheck. I see this constantly from the working class, mostly liberal folks in my family. And they’re tired of hearing me remind them that they get $7500 tax returns. Somehow they just don’t get that this is equal to about $300/paycheck.
Based on the feeling I have when I see people on videos and read their comments online and comparing this feeling with the feelings I had before the Brexit vote and before Trump’s victory in 2016 (where I watched the same kind of videos and read the same kind of comments below the same type of articles I read today) I would put Trump’s chances, provided he is still alive in November, at around 85-90%.
A majority of people really wants to stick a middle finger to what they perceive as the Establishment. They don’t care about the consequences because they feel deep inside that it cannot get worse for them. I am afraid they are very wrong on that count, but they will win (the election, that is: they will remain losers like the Brexiteers remain losers and screwed).
Godott help us!
Trump doesn’t have to lose in a landslide to lose the Presidency, so I think the focus on “his voters” who won’t care about negative headlines is a little off.
I don’t think that effectively anyone who would vote for Trump in the first place would change that decision should he get convicted. Nowhere close to enough to change the results in a swing state
I am probably being naive, but I think his chances are very low.
-Since 2016, Trump endorsed candidates in competitive races have abysmal records.
-Elections in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 were far more favorable to the Democrats than many polls suggested they would be.
-Republican still haven’t figured out a way to get their early voting game going.
Edit: I didn’t mean to link to hajario’s post. Can’t seem to remove it now. Sorry
The critical point here is what “his voters” mean. There is a core of MAGAites who would vote for him if he was in a coma on death row. But that isn’t enough voters to get him elected, that’s about 30% of the electorate. The remaining GOP voters would likely not vote for Trump if he is in prison for a felony.
His voters means people who vote for him be they MAGA, never Biden, Republicans who would prefer someone else or lizard people. Him being in prison, in my opinion, won’t change that. And he will never be in prison. House arrest at worst.
Pardon me for bringing this up again, but there is a way Trump can be President a third time “within the rules,” although it helps to have friends on the Supreme Court.
Going by a strict reading of the 22nd Amendment, nothing prevents Trump from becoming President in a way other than being elected, which means he is “constitutionally eligible” to be President, which means he is eligible to be elected Vice-President, so the Republicans can nominate somebody they are certain would resign immediately after being sworn in for President, with Trump as his running mate.
The main stumbling block in this is, a Supreme Court that wouldn’t be too thrilled with Trump serving a third term might decide, “Well, even though the 22nd Amendment ‘says’ that he cannot be ‘elected’ again, it ‘means’ he cannot be President again at all. Trump is Not My President, Not Your President, Not Anybody’s President.”
As for being elected in 2024 in the first place, am I the only one worried about a repeat of 1876? If, somehow, the Republicans control both the House and Senate, it has to be considered within the realm of possibilities, although I have a feeling at least one Republican Senator would never support it.
The Koch brothers’ funded anti-tax group Americans for Prosperity Action think Trump is going to lose
Despite what some media outlets report, our polling consistently shows Donald Trump loses to Joe Biden in the states that will decide the election in November. And if he’s convicted in one of his many criminal trials, polling indicates his loss will be even more severe
But we know that’s not true. We know enough Trump voters in 2016 did not vote for Trump in 2020 for him to lose the election. And we know a lot of voters will not vote for him if he’s convicted.
Not that its impossible he could get convicted and still voted in, but its not a given. As I say above I’d say the chances of him getting convicted from one of the trials, and that resulting in him not being elected is about 10%. I mean as a general point, a random person facing 91 felony counts in four trials has a way more than 10% chance of being in prison in a years time.
My gut feeling is that if Trump was convicted of a felony and went to prison, that would be game over for him winning the election. Swing voters, who refuse to believe Trump is abnormal, would conclude he couldn’t do a good job from behind bars.
I’m sure there are a non-zero number of voters who qualify, but Trump got millions more votes in 2020 than in 2016. At this time, I’m not aware of any data that suggests this is a significant number of voters.
In 2016 the US presidential race offered the choice between the best credentialled presidential candidate in history and a NY property huckster with no experience in public administration or governance.
The aggregate “You”, naturally went with the reality TV host.
After four years demonstrating he possessed even less aptitude for governance than he had in running his casinos or golf courses, 10 million more voted for him.
In the interim has come veritable waves of incontrovertible evidence that he was never qualified, except by age and birth, for the job in the first place. Yet he’ll get on the ticket unopposed in Trump for America III.
It’s not the MAGA cultists who will give him the keys to the Executive washroom. Though there are far too many of them, there are not enough of them.
It’s the 10 million who thought the US was improved under the POTUS 45 administration plus the 10s of millions who think the US is on the wrong path now.
And all the millions who prefer reality TV to reality,
In the choice between what’s best for me vs what’s best for us, put your money on self-interest. Alas.
At this point Trump, having gathered more Presidential votes in total than any preceding candidate, can retire after a little bit of retribution to the golden pantheon as the biglyest popular public figure the US has ever produced. Despite what the SDMB thinks. Alas.
Looking around for a good deal on a fallout shelter.
