Trump is not a random person. And his strategy of delay, delay, delay will pay off.
Don’t forget that the Republican party has cranked preventing the “wrong” people from voting machine into high gear. I think that he has at least a 90% chance of winning. Too many people are convinced that the economy was great under Trump and has tanked under Biden (even though that is false–but they believe it). Trump has little chance of winning the popular vote, but since when has that mattered. Each Wyoming voter has something like 70 times the voting power as a Californian.
He will not be convicted of anything. SCOTUS will delay any federal trial until after the election while they pretend to debate whether an ex-president can be tried for anything he did while president. Fanni Willis has allowed her personal and professional lives to merge to an extent that will prevent a conviction there–or least lead to a long delay.
And if Trump wins this fall and is still alive in 2028 is there anyone naive enough to think he (or his henchmen) will not find a way to declare a national emergency and prevent the election?
Oh James Comey, you have a lot to answer for.
That’s why my estimate is only 10%. He strategy may pay off but he’s still facing four felony trials.
I wish it was 0% but we all know the reverse is probably true, assuming he lives until November.
I guess I’ll wait awhile before putting any odds on Trump’s chances. There are currently too many unknown variables.
What happens when Joe Biden actually starts to campaign? He hasn’t up to now, not really. And why should he? Why should he waste his war chest on Trump and elevate him to de facto Republican general election nominee status? I find it interesting that Trump can barely stay in a tie against Biden when Trump has been campaigning since he left office, and Biden is only getting started.
How many big Republican donors are going to stick with Trump? Or will some of the old reliables sit this one out?
How effective will foreign interference be in our elections for 2024? Russia, China, Iraq, North Korea, Hungary and a few others will be putting their thumbs on the scale to the greatest extent possible for Trump. We underestimated the shit out of this effect in 2016, have done better against it in 2018, 2020 and 2022, but the leaders of these countries will do everything they can to get the fix in for Trump. So will Netanyahu, for that matter. On the bright side, Biden and his administration are well aware.
What of Fox “News” and its satellites? How much of a factor will they be this time around? So far, they’re having pretty good success with the “Joe Biden is old, feeble and mentally challenged” meme.
Will the SCOTUS delay Trump’s January 6th insurrection trial past the election?
I think I’ll have a better idea about this in a couple of months.
The difference was even more dramatic if you looked at electoral vote totals rather than nationwide percentages. IIRC we don’t elect the President based on popular vote 
Expect more of this, especially when Trump devolves even more into dementia word salad.
I tend to agree with you.
People came out in 2020 specifically to vote against him, not to actually vote for Biden. I’d like to think that the American people don’t have such short memories, nor are quite so ignorant as to blame stuff like post-pandemic inflation on Biden alone, and would choose Trump as a viable alternative.
But people as a group are ignorant, stupid, fickle, and have short memories. I’m sure there are some dipshits out there who see the inflation, see Biden in office, and conclude it’s his fault, and things were better under Trump, despite all the actual legitimate threats to our democratic way of life. There are also unfortunately a lot of people who just don’t care, and would rather have more money in their pockets under an autocrat instead of making that sacrifice for the good of the nation.
And there are probably a lot of people who don’t understand why it’s so bad that he’s facing four felony trials and was impeached twice.
So I’m hopeful that all the people who voted against him in 2020 come out and do so again, and that the people who think he’s an improvement over Biden are few.
The election outcome is up to the Democrats, especially the nominee (presumably Biden). They need to focus on 2 things: undecided voters in swing states and huge turnouts of Democrats in blue states.
If they go on the attack and hammer on all of Trump’s numerous weaknesses, they can pull it off. They also need to highlight Biden’s numerous accomplishments. However past experience shows me that they are not good at either of those things.
Pulling a number out of my… ear, I put it at 50:50.
One thing I’m seeing in my own circle doesn’t bode well for Biden and voter turnout. My niece is in her 30s she’s about as liberal as you can find. She would never vote for Trump. With Biden supporting military operations in Israel and not pushing for a ceasefire she has publicly posted there is no one that she could vote for. I’m seeing there is a campaign in New Hampshire to write in “ceasefire” instead of Biden. Biden isn’t on the ballot for reasons. Who knows what will be happening there in November but it’s not an issue that should be ignored.
Republicans for most of my lifetime are masters at fooling voters into voting against their self-interest while convincing them that they are voting for their self-interest.
While I hesitate to put a percentage of Trump’s odds, I feel much better about them after seeing his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. The people who participate in primaries tend to be drived dyed-in-the-wool members of the party and though Trump won it’s not by the margins he’s expected. I believe his chances of election are lower than they were a few months back and I believe they’ll continue to sink. He’s going to win the Republican nomination, but I don’t think he can win the general election. Of course I didn’t think he would win in 2016 either. But since I believe the elections are fair, I can’t help but acknowledge there’s always a chance.
Non-zero but close to it. I don’t see Loser Donald flipping any states Biden won in 2020.
Registered independents are growing as a percentage of the electorate - which could have vast effects on our election systems in the future - and Trump is racking up some pretty bad numbers with them.
My problem is I’m a moderately conservative Republican. I loathe Donald Trump but I can’t get behind Biden either. If the Dem’s had given me someone like Jared Polis or J.B. Pritzker I’d have a whole lot less problem with this whole scenario.
If we weren’t talking about Donald Trump and Joe Biden I’d be a bit more sympathetic to this point of view. I’m not enthusiastic about Biden either, but I’m voting for him because the alternative is destruction. So I honestly don’t understand what your problem is. Behind door #1 are oatmeal raisin cookies. Yeah, they’re disappointing and you don’t really want it. But behind door #2 is a flaming bag of crap. I’ll take the disappointing cookies, thank you.
Not criticizing, just asking - so, you prefer Trump over Biden?
I can really understand anyone saying neither Trump nor Biden thrills them. But I wonder about people who are not able to perceive Biden as the lesser of 2 evils. Or folk who intend to make a “protest” vote for some 3d candidate.
It isn’t as though you have endless choices. There are 2. That’s it. And one of those 2 is going to be our next president. So which would you LESS DISLIKE it to be?
I don’t care for either of them frankly. know what you’re saying and push comes to shove I will make the intelligent decision. However it won’t be a decision that I like. And I don’t care for that.
You say you would vote for Polis or Pritzker so clearly you don’t have an issue with the Democrats. So what exactly is the problem with Biden?
I like the minority candidates and can see perceivable flaws in the Biden-Harris ticket. But The direness of an election year only makes voting for Biden/Trump possible. I’ve rediscovered the same reality each time for thirty years.