Yeah, and I’m calling bullshit on that chart. Nowt but confirmation bias.
The X axis is arbitrary and hence all you are graphing is increased voter polarity.
Which has been increasing regardless of who holds the White House.
That Biden appears to have reduced polarity is IMHO a good thing.
Moreover, if you were to exclude Nixon and Carter then Trump is clearly above the line.
As I said, very rudimentary, not supposed to be a rigorous prediction in any way.
That’s one of the points of the plot. Namely
- Polarization is increasing with time
- As polarization increases, the smaller the gap between your own party’s approval and the other party’s approval rating means that your own side is not as excited about going out and voting, which gives an advantage to the other side.
FYI, I used this method in 2019 to “predict” that Trump would lose to Biden in 2020. I just updated the plot with 2024 numbers.
One major problem with the above plot is that it doesn’t take into account the unique situation of Trump: Even if Biden voters are not excited to go out and vote for him, many are very excited to go out and vote against Trump. So, ideally, that aspect should be captured.
trump will get killed with women over overturning abortion.
And he obtained a lot of followers in 2016 because he tapped into their grievances. Now, the grievances are his own, and I think people are going to get tired and annoyed that all he talks about is how mean people are to him.
Some republicans have sworn him off (January 6th actually had an effect, I believe). Nicki Haley’s persistence reflects this (both in terms of votes and donations). Yes, MAGA is forever loyal, but it’s not the entire party, and it’s not enough to carry a general election.
Plus, he has a shit record as president (I saw something recently where he tried to trot out his version of Reagan’s famous line “are you better now than you were 4 years ago?” Except for donald, he asked “are you better now than you were 5 years ago?” Because, of course, the economy tanked during his last year).
And he’s losing his faculties. Even if he’s not absolutely senile by the election, he’s getting sweatier and more rambling. It’s only going to get worse.
There’s also that criminal stuff. I still expect him to be convicted in the DC trial before the election.
donald is a cancer on the Republican Party, and he is going to destroy it. He can’t win the presidency.
I don’t see how that would work; from what you’re saying, wouldn’t they have voted against Trump before January 6th?
Everything.
Trump.
Touches.
Turns.
To.
Shit.
Trump is a narcissist. All he knows is himself. The Democrats should run edited video montages of him talking about himself.
The Democrats should run unedited videos of him rambling.
Great Graffitti!! Should be sprayed on freeway overpasses A bit of not so subtle messaging. Repeat it enough lets hope it sinks in.
Same: around 50/50.
Meanwhile, non-MAGA is also MAGA. See the video “How Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act changed the world” from FT in YT for details.
“At the end of the day people won’t remember what you said or did, they will remember how you made them feel.” --Maya Angelou
I think this describes MAGA in a nutshell. I just had a MAGA supporter explain to me that Nikki Haley is bad because she had an affair and lied about it. I don’t know how he can reconcile this belief with his support of a man who cheated on each one of his three wives and paid off a porn actress to keep one of those affairs a secret. But he doesn’t care what Trump has said or did, he just cares about how Trump makes him feel.
While Trump will continue to make his MAGAts feel good, there’s a growing number of his base who have lost that loving feeling. There are a lot of Republicans in Congress who are tired of MAGAts blocking any effort to govern, there are Republican state politicians who are tired of Trump maligning their state institutions, and there are a growing number of voters who are leaving the Trump/MAGA tent.
Trump is a scared old man whose world is collapsing around him. He’s afraid of Nikki Haley, he’s afraid of losing the election, he’s afraid of what’s about to happen to his business, he’s afraid of how much damages a jury will award E. Jean Carrol, and he’s afraid he’s going to prison. I’m rarely angry at anything he has to say because I see it as further signs that he weak and fearful.
I haven’t felt better about Trump’s odds of winning a general election in a long, long time. Granted I’m not quite certain enough of his loss not to feel some small anxiety, but I’m feeling pretty good. He’s almost certain to win my state, but I think he’s going to lose bigger than he lost in 2020.
155 million voters it’s not possible for it to not to be possible.
Of course they have. But in the end it’s Joe Sixpack deciding who the actual candidate is, and it’s always going to be like that until the parties do away with the ridiculous primary system.
I understand that. And people flip which party they vote for all the time. But each time it’s not the same candidate that they voted against last time but for the time before that.
I dont think that will happen. Right now, the anti-trumpers (who arent polling for Biden)are hoping for a white knight riding a unicorn, who is young, female and a minority, to sweep all before her. Look at how that idiot RFK is polling. If Kennedy is in the poll Biden takes a hit- but he wont be around come November. And those Kennedy voters wont vote for trump.
GOP & Kremlin propaganda (“old biden”, the economy is in the toilet, crime is out of control, the border is open) is working, but just in the polls.
Welcome to the Straight Dope.
The tyranny Donald Trump wishes for would come about via democracy, so yes, you are somewhat correct.
However, you appear to hold that a democratically elected Trump is a valid win, and the converse opinion that democracy itself is invalid.
Which is your actual belief?
Do you have a suggestion for an alternative to democracy?
Though Trump is polarizing, there are clearly many people who see themselves as independent and who could conceivably have voted Trump then Biden who are leaning towards Trump again, for most of the reasons I said, though it is true I should have given an example other than January 6 due to chronology. There must be millions of such people by simple statistics and human nature to dislike politicians whose policies don’t help you personally or who bemoan the perceived lack of any solid choice.
Senators are allegedly steamed Trump is screwing up their border compromise to avoid handing Biden a limited win. And only for that reason, which in no way is related to Ukraine or Russian Kompromat, which would of course be impossible.
If the party was calling the shots, Preibus would be in all the headlines. In Canada, I haven’t heard Reince’s name in a long time. And maybe the senators would still be negotiating rather than The McConnell Mutant Ninja Turtle discussing delicate situations.
Take Mexico as a less democratic republic. They seem to strive a little bit for it but are very much controlled by outside companies and cartels or big shots in other eras. Being a consistent democracy would seem beyond means.
Or other examples maybe,
Dr. Paprika I appreciate your insights re: immigration policy with intl relations there. Tho I’m out of element it’s good for digestion.
Okay, it’s possible, but many things are possible. Maybe they’re space aliens. Why is this possible thing interesting?
Because a non-insignificant number of people voted for a candidate, then voted against him, and will turn around and vote for him again. I’d like to know what their motivation is. I’d like to think it’s something more than a bunch of idgets who don’t know WTF they want.
There are not enough people who feel like you to win a general election. And trump won’t court those others. To the contrary, he’s actively repelling them.
(Another reason to doubt his chances is that he’s beginning to have the same taint as Hillary: he’s beset by scandal. Even if a person doesn’t think all of the charges against him are legitimate, I think there comes a point where people get tired of all of the intrigue. They don’t want to hear about it anymore, so they’ll vote for someone else just to change the constant narrative in their media)
How do you know it’s non-insignificant? Sure, it’s possible. Or maybe they’re space aliens.
That’s what I’ve been trying to say. Many things are possible. But you haven’t shown any evidence that this number of people is anything significant.
About the same as last time. Around 45%.