Bill Clinton was elected president 31 years ago, and he’s still younger today than the two leading candidates.
We have yet to elect a president younger than a Boomer. In the case of Biden we’ve gone BACK to Silent Generation. And the oldest GenX are 60. WTF?
Obama is squarely Generation Jones. He is quoted as saying that he belongs in that cohort.
Huh, never heard that- that would include me. But my Dad was a WW@ vet, and They pulled a number for the very last Viet Nam draft, I had a very high # and did not get drafted. So I guess that makes me a BoomJones? 
But I cant remember not having TV.
You’re probably the last Boomer. 
I never heard of it either, though apparently I’m a member. Does it get me a discount anywhere?
Yes, buy and wear the following shirt-
I am a senior so where’s my discount dammit!
538 collects Biden v. Trump polls here (National, and for individual states). In a few months, these will be the main (but not only) inputs for their forecast model.
A quote from the article @Riemann linked to:
Trump’s “tax reform” worked for Jamie Dimon?
Color me flabbergasted.
The polls of 1000 people mean nothing. They may show a trend from week to week, but you are just following a news trend. It goes up and down depending on Israel etc. A poll of maybe 5000 has a bit more meaning. There they are tied, as the polls are still only +/- 2%. 2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Agreed. And it’s not just because of sample size. It is also because of the need to average together many polls with differing methodologies.
Just remember – a national vote tie means Trump is probably ahead due to the GOP electoral college advantage.
That’s just how polls work.
Unless Trump wins much bigger in red state than Biden does in Blue states, of course. But, I think that would imply Trump winning the popular vote, which seems unlikely.
PhillyGuy is right (*about Biden eventually needing to be ahead, not tied, in an average of national polls, due to party-skewed electoral college realities over the past decade-plus).
It’s the main reason I won’t pay too much attention to Biden v. Trump polls until 538 launches its probabilistic model (I think around May or June), because it weighs swing state polls more heavily than national ones.
*He isn’t right about “sample size of 1000” meaning nothing, though – let’s not give TeroSunbear the mistaken impression that 1000 is necessarily a worse sample size than a larger one, for any single poll (read the article I linked to). PhillyGuy IS right that a bunch of (well executed) polls is better than a single (well executed) poll.
Unfortunately, 538 is a shadow of its former self.
Yeah, I don’t think I would put too much stock in it’s model this cycle… It’s been sold off and changed leadership a number of times recently.
Really all you need to do is look at swing state polling and accept that there is a significant margin of error. But also realize that they tend to be tied together (i.e. an error in Michigan will likely be correlated with an error in Penn).
RCP’s averages are OK, but they also have a few ways to fudge the numbers in the GOP’s favor (which has gotten worse over the years).
While I miss Nate Silver as much as anyone, and the ABC News-conforming website is clunky, I’ve paid close attention to their mathematical mechanics, and there’s no reason to think this year’s probabilistic model won’t be as good as previous ones.
Indeed, as you would expect, there will be improvements, starting with their methodology for rating polling outfits (now it emphasizes transparency in methods more than it used to, for example).
If there’s some proprietary issues with Nate (i.e., 538 can’t use certain parts of the model for legal reasons), that could be a problem — I’ll report if that turns out to be the case.
So based of recent events (mainly the vehement rejection of his immunity claim by the DC court or appeals, in a way that makes SCOTUS taking it less likely) I’d say this is pessimistic. I’m saying the chances of him being convicted of a felony, and that being enough to ensure he is not elected, are around 20%. So that gets you to 27% chance of Trump being elected.
Whatever the odds were yesterday, they are lower today due to the Supreme Court and Special Counsel Robert Hur.