Because Hur accused Biden of being demented, and we must take all such accusations solemnly and seriously?
FWIW the betting exchange odds have barely moved through the immunity ruling and today at the SC, still around 45%.
The weird thing is that Michelle Obama is third favorite at almost 8%.
There was never any chance of the SCOTUS allowing him to be removed from the ballot IMO. The odds were so close to zero I didn’t think it was worth including in my estimate.
Under a month out (like Comeys email revelation in October 2016) that might have moved the needle. But this far our whatever negative effects will forgotten in no time.
That’s why the term “October Surprise” is a thing and has been for a long time.
No, of course many won’t. Maybe even most. But a substantial number will take this bullshit seriously.
Sure, but in that case, so could Trump saying that Biden is a cannibalistic lizard person.
I half agree and half disagree.
This far out, so much can happen, good or bad, for either candidate, that the odds of Trump winning cannot be all that far away from even.
As for the effect of the nasty bits in the Robert Hur report, or the Supreme Court apparently being unwilling to enforce Section 3, those wouldn’t be seen in polls until much more widely publicized in Trump speeches and advertisements.
What about the gambling odds? Shouldn’t they move right away on news? Logically, yes. I admit lack of knowledge concerning how to analyze them and their historical accuracy .
Yes, so the fact that they haven’t tells us the market consensus is that we haven’t had any significant news.
Reporting from Trumpland Tennessee.
His heat is cooling, here.
Biden is not loved, but the passion for Trump is dwindling.
MAGA is no longer the thing to do.
Is there a web site that aggregates all, or most of, these betting organizations, so I can trust-but-verify that there has been no move in betting markets today?
Just go to Betfair.You don’t need to sign up.
The UK exchange Betfair, but you can’t view it from a US IP address. It is not an aggregator, it is an exchange with two-way markets, so if there were any major discrepancy with odds available elsewhere for the main players it would be arbitraged out.
But what does that mean in the election when Trump is the candidate? Are they so disaffected that they would stay home and risk Biden winning?
So there are two different reasons why these would not effect the odds:
- The SCOTUS case absolutely would effect the odds if there was a reasonable chance, prior to today, that they would let it stand. But that’s not the case IMO (and in most opinions I’ve read), it’s not going from a 10% chance to 1%, based on what was said in the SCOTUS today, it’s going from a 0.001% chance to a 0.0001% chance.
- Comments in the Hur’s report may affect the odds if the election was happening tomorrow. But that’s not how gambling odds work they are giving the odds of Trump winning an election in November and if they don’t change that means the people calculating them don’t think they will change the result, even if they are dominating the news cycle this week(and potentially affect the polls taken during that news cycle)
Even a ratcheting down of enthusiasm from the last two elections could be significant.
Fingers crossed!
I’m blocked from betfair as an American, but I found an aggregator web site:
Biden supposedly went from a winning probability earlier today of 35.5 percent to, in the past few hours, 33.5 percent (click on Charts and then Last Day). That’s an implausibly big change based on one day of news that, while negative for Biden, mostly could have been anticipated. And that swing is dwarfed by big implausible differences between different betting markets.
Then there is the bizarre claimed 6.8 percent chance of Michelle Obama being POTUS next January.
Unless this aggregator is way off base, I am unimpressed by the wisdom of the gaming public.
The change could be based on a new poll or two coming out and not the news but I agree that the site is generally useless, at least this far out.
Some are going to.
And say so.
Perhaps Trump supporters are more likely to bet? These odds are suspect.
Most US residents can’t bet.