Say you’re the governor of some backwater state, 40ish, with vague Presidential ambitions off in some distant future, decades hence. Either party, and it doesn’t much matter if you’re a Congressman or a Senator or a Mayor—just some pol in 2024 with no shot at nomination, because your party is looking to nominate an elderly man who has the nomination virtually locked up.
So why would you run for an office you have virtually no chance to win? You can’t even rock the boat very much, because that would be seen as getting into the grill of your elderly opponent and making enemies for yourself for no practical gain.
The answer is two-fold: one advantage would be elevating your now-low profile into a little name-recognition. “Oh, yeah, that dude who ran for President prematurely in 2024. OK, let’s see what he’s got going now, in 20xx” Probably not worth much, certainly not the effort of spending weeks in wintry NH or Iowa.
The other advantage lies in your putative 2024 rival’s advanced age. There is a minuscule but not-zero possibility that your elderly rival will drop dead in the next few months. A smaller but more viable chance is that he drops dead after getting nominated, perhaps even well into the campaign season. What to do? No time for another primary season, debate, nominating convention—the election is only days/weeks/months/hours away!!! Let’s nominate another candidate who’s put some positions out there, gained a delegate or two—I know, how about that shlub from Shlubsylvania?
So that’s what such worthies as Pence and Suarez and Hutchison and even Gavin Newsom are up to, putting themselves in people’s minds as “Presidential candidate” in case they’re needed as emergency nominees.
It could be for name recognition for later elections or to get a cabinet position but the reality is that politicians use elections to build up a war chest for elections they may win. For example, when John Hickenlooper ran for President he received a ton of donations and spent hardly any of it until he ran for Senator and added a new round of donations to his treasury.
As a proud resident of this fine state I will not stand for this calumny.
And at least Pence, Newsome and Hutchinson have some name recognition. Did Eric Swalwell ever really think he had a shot? Is “getting your name out there” and being squashed really a good career move, wat chest aside? Is that the only reason to do it?
I suspect some are doing it to split the sane vote and let DJT coast to the nomination just like in 2016. Some are auditioning for the vice presidency. Those not currently in public office may do it just to feel relevant again. Some want the campaign money and will find a way to line their own pockets. And some may not have enough self-awareness to know they have no chance.
Can someone remind me whether candidates can use their campaign funds for personal use after the election? Otherwise, it seems like a lot of work, and all the money will go to consultants, staffers, and ad buys.
(I’m talking legally, not like some have done)
Regarding the first two people who announced that they were running for the Democratic presidential nomination, one had just released a book and the other is a constant public antivax advocate. In both cases it was 100% a publicity stunt
Yeah, I forgot the VP thing (GOP only, thanks) is another path towards greater future electability. Trump’s VP is also a candidate for “getting yourself killed” of course but if you escape that fate it does lift your name recognition a bunch.
And the legacy thing cannot be overstated. “In Iowa, I once came in twelfth in a pool of sixteen GOP candidates for President, once upon a time, that’s how powerful and important your great-grampa was, and never you kids forget that.”
Ambassadorship - there’s nothing more loathed at an embassy than some political appointee that wants to be called Mr/Ms Ambassador for the rest of their lives, but has no actual diplomatic skills.
While all the cynical reasons listed above that “no hope” candidates run for President are valid, I think it’s a mistake to underestimate how much these candidates genuinely believe that there is a path for them to the nomination. Clinton and Carter have already been named as low-profile politicians who ended up in the White House. Obama had been a Senator for all of two years when he announced his candidacy. All politicians almost necessarily have enormous egos, and don’t need much prodding to come up with a scenario where the stars align just right to put them in the Presidency.
True. But at the same time, Trump subsequently entered the campaign from a very different place than did the OP’s various current examples, or even from where Carter & Clinton did in their eras. Trump’s cannonball bursting on the scene in 2015 was, like so much else about that ghastly guy, sui generis.
As of now in 2023 for the 2024 election, Trump looms yugely over the R party’s situation. It doesn’t matter which R wannabe candidate we’re talking about, that person is maneuvering mostly against / around Trump and his baleful shadow, not against / around anyone, much less everyone, else in the field.
My point being that yes, I fully agree with your historical assertion, but I’m not sure it says much of anything useful about 2024. And especially nothing useful on the R side.