Thanks. I am going by memories of nearly two decades ago, but wasn’t one issue then that m at if these had been out for a long time and had no idea they could be recalled?
Most of the recalled IRR soldiers knew or should have known they were subject to recall. What really shocked a lot of people back then was the realization that retired service members–especially officers–were subject to recall for life. There is at least an age limit now of 65 or 70, and perhaps there was a limit back then as well, but I don’t think so. There was a huge uproar back then from people in their late 50s and 60s who’d been retired for 10 or 20 years before being recalled. I still remember a COL in Iraq who looked like she was in her late 70s or 80s! Pretty sure she was a medical provider of some sort.
Imagine having retired at 42 after 20 years of service, then 20 years later, getting recalled to active service at 62!
I think we’re all more speculating than debating, but it’s an inherently speculative endeavor, so no problem.
My armchair general guess is that the various reserves will be called up, and effectively drilled / trained in place. Largely, I expect them to get small arms and stacked hip-deep in the newly accepted ‘Russian’ provinces as soon as the sham vote is done, along with the border areas of Crimea.
Sure, they’re not going to be skilled, and may well be a disaster to the civilians in said areas, but they’ll be a wall of bodies from semi-fixed positions. Plus, when the Ukraine army comes calling, they’ll be lives lost on ‘Russian’ soil, which presents a far different picture for at-home propaganda purposes.
Which will allow Putin to reconsolidate and stiffen his more recently trained if now badly disorganized ‘professional’ and equipped troops to push back and launch punitive counter-strikes with missile support to wreck (not capture) Ukraine assets and territories.
So (again IMHO) long term he can say to the home, all we’re doing is defending ourselves when the Evil / Nazi Ukraine invaded and killed you son, while pointing to Ukraine that he’ll keep wrecking their infrastructure and that there are 300k troops embedded in the breakaways and Crimea so you’ll never get them back, want to settle (and then rattles nuclear saber again)?
At this point, I don’t think it will work, but it’s at least a plausible route to a partial win from a Russian POV.
Well she wasn’t the only over 70 to be sent.
There was another one.
And a 60 year old KIA, Major. Not Major General. Though he was a volunteer.
Wouldn’t everyone have been better served if they were sent to some base in the US relieving a younger person sent to Iraq? Was the cupboard that bare.
(I doubt the Russians will send seventy year olds, chiefly since I am not sure they have that many left 70 years old alive, after the collapse of their life expectancy in the 1990’s 
).
While people with military experience are supposed to be the ones drafted, it isn’t working out that way according to the Times.
Remote regions are getting hit harder. The cities are being spared. Bankers are critical and exempt.
I suspect a lot of the reason for the draft is to appease the hard liners.
… unless something unanticipated happens (chances are that event will happen in the first day) - and there is a change of plans and they are sent with rusted out AK47 and WWII uniforms to raid a fortified position of the Kraken BG …
Given what russia has shown in the past 7 months, does anybody doubt that 59year old "Sasha from Human Ressources " will be thrown under the bus so a scumbag nco can report that we are taking this position?
I agree - the nukes seem to be Putin’s “Steiner und seine Panzer”
There seems to be an awful lot of anecdotical evidence that this is not (exclusively) the case … some 59 year old guy with diabetis and NO prior mil training being taken away …
of course that whole shitshow could also allow for a lot of “old accounts getting settled” e.g. if you are part of that mobilization machinery and have a pesky neighbour who listens to loud music at 3a.m. you can surely get that guy a certified letter … :o) … so one can only guess how many Mini-Me (mini-Putin, if that is even possible) are out there now being allowed to play god.
quite possibly - but I doubt this is part of the design … you’d have to kindergarden the group or they might get completely lost, walk in circles, freak out and start shooting at their own troops…
But I also see a good spin for the Ukr. in this scenario … those guys should be easy to scare shitless and once panic spreads, it is pretty impossible to stop … so the Ukr. could try to get a reverse panic stampede going - like in Izium - where the story got taller with every recount of those who took off.
I’ve heard similar figures, but I’ve also heard most of the tanks in storage are rusted out and not functional. I don’t think they have 10,200 tanks in pristine, well maintained condition just sitting in Russia doing nothing, considering the low quality of the kinds of military vehicles they’ve sent into Ukraine. I’ve seen multiple videos and photos of vehicles that had severe dry rot in the tires, severe rust issues, etc. and those are going to be the best vehicles Russia sent in. Isn’t Russia now reduced to asking North Korea for military hardware since they are now a pariah state?
They’ve already lost something like 2000 tanks in the war against Ukraine, and those are probably the best 2000 tanks they had. The other 10,000 are probably disabled, older, or just spare parts. That was my impression.
Zelensky addresses any Russian troops that are considering surrendering.
He offers them three guarantees.
-
That they will be treated humanely in accordance with all POW conventions.
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That the circumstances of their surrender won’t be made known to Russia.
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That they have the option of not returning to Russia at the end of the war should they decide that they don’t want to return.
That sounds to me like a fancy word for “cannon fodder”.
My only concern is how do they make sure that Russian partisans pretending to be anti-war aren’t going to slip into Ukraine and NATO allied countries by surrendering and then committing terrorism or espionage against their host nations?
That’s Russian military doctrine for you. They have a very assault focused ideology. One of my jobs in the military was writing exercises based on different scenarios. Most of them, given the era, were focused on counter-terrorism, but we did do a few exercises fighting “Russian” forces (we couldn’t call them Russian for political reasons).
Wouldn’t it be easier to enter another nation on the pretext of fleeing the draft? If you surrender as a POW, it might be a long while before you wind up somewhere you can commit terrorism at.
Good cite there. And that’s excellent tactics by Zelenskyy. But I’d point out to all of us that item 3 has a built-in caveat. It should read
- That they have the option of not returning to Russia at the end of the war should they decide that they don’t want to return. Provided Ukraine wins the war.
That last bit is key. Were I a Russian conscript looking to desert / escape to the Ukrainian side of the front lines, I would have a major vested interest in ensuring that later on either a) Russia doesn’t win the war, or b) I’m a couple countries further to the west when the Russians do win the war.
Whether that logic makes post-surrender me an asset or a liability to Ukraine is an interesting conundrum. For darn sure I’m a liability to Mother Russia though as soon as I get near the front.
There should also be a larger promise zero on the front of that list: the more and better Russian military equipment you bring us, the larger your reward. Appeal to their cultural Prime Directive: corruption uber alles for the win!
What recent actions by the Russian government give you the confidence to assume that they could successfully pull off such a plan?
This was shown in the MPIMS thread, but new recruits are being given rusty AK-47s.
It’s much easier to order large numbers of men to fight than to actually support them.
“Here Ivan! Put this over your uniform and start walking over there. Yes, in that direction. Just keep walking.” < Hands Ivan a bib with a large circular target on it >
"No, no don’t worry! This is the international signal for “don’t shoot at me!”
Didn’t that happen when Germany invaded Russia in WWII? The Soviets didn’t have enough guns so they would send several men in with one gun. When the guy with the gun got shot his squad mate picked up the gun and kept going.
The Germans still advanced but, eventually, the Soviets wore them down lending credence to “quantity has a quality all its own.” The costs in lives to the Soviets was staggering but if your leaders don’t give a fuck about their soldiers’ or citizens’ lives it can be a viable tactic. Stalin certainly didn’t care and I do not think Putin does either.
If Google Translate is correct, ‘к черту это дерьмо’.
They aren’t T-55s. They’re T-72s, T-80s and T-90s. The breakdown from IISS Military Balance 2021 is 10,200 in store: 7,000 T-72/T-72A/B; 3,000 T-80B/BV/U; 200 T-90.
I don’t disagree. I’m skeptical that all 10,000 have been maintained well enough to be all brought back to working order. Most were put into open air storage, and I doubt that they were given proper preventative maintenance. However, if only 1/3 of them can be brought back to working order by cannibalizing the rest, that’s still over 3,000 tanks - and 1/3 is likely a wishful thinking guesstimate. For all of the Russian losses so far, Ukraine hasn’t said anything to the effect that the Russians are short on tanks or artillery; they’ve been saying the opposite, that Russia enjoys a superiority in tanks and particularly in artillery. What they have been saying that the Russians lack is the ability to use what they have in an intelligent manner, which is what has led to their bludgeoning tactics of using their superiority in weight of numbers of artillery to slowly blast their way forward meter by meter during the last 5 or so months in the Donbas.
In any event, even if they ‘only’ have 3,000 tanks they can pull from storage, the basis of the OP, that the Russians are going to be sending their troops into battle without heavy equipment, or that they are running out of heavy equipment due to losses is simply wrong on its face.
Then the question is, do they have enough mechanics?