Everyone’s heard the story about Truman pitying the incoming President Eisenhower, saying, "He’ll sit here, and he’ll say, ‘Do this! Do that!’ And nothing will happen. Poor Ike—it won’t be a bit like the Army. He’ll find it very frustrating.”
So, what happens when Trump just can’t get a goddam thing done? After the easy layup of tax reform, where there’s some kind of consensus on the GOP side, ISTM Trump’s “agenda” to the extent there is one gets terminally bogged down in the fact that there is no consensus GOP position on anything Trump has focused on–immigration, infrastructure, healthcare, foreign relations (esp. w Russia). Then throw in items like the Iran deal, Paris agreement, and Cuba detente–which no sane cabinet members will support reversing–you’re looking at very few actual campaign promises getting accomplished.
Case in point: healthcare. Trump seems to have this idea we’re going to insure “everyone,” which I’m no expert but sounds to me like either single payer or Obamacare rebranded Trumpcare. Either of which is presumably unacceptable to the GOP. So neither of which actually gets, you know, done.
I’m asking mainly from the angle of: what does the total stall-out of Trump’s agenda (beyond tax reform?) do to the GOP’s relationship with Trump, and how does this help Democrats. I would have thrown in a third angle–Trump’s supporters–but I assume they will blame RINO sell-outs and Democrat obstructionists whatever happens, so it’s a less interesting question.
My guess, maybe hopelessly colored by my personal anti-Trump animus, is that after getting tax reform the GOP jettisons Trump and makes Pence president. And I’m thinking that the prelude to this happening is open warfare between Trump and the GOP leadership, with him taking to Twitter every day railing about the “sad LOSER McConnell” and “Paul Ryan, who’s totally overrated.”
Does the GOP at that point orchestrate to remove him (and get in Pence more of a known quantity)? Is it worth it to them (and to Dems) to incur the ire and wrath of Trump hardcore supporters? Is that what’s best for the country, or does it invite a crisis worse than anything Trump is likely to do?
Or, does the GOP simply power through with a mediocre president they can’t actually work with? Do we see a primary challenge to Trump?
Basically, I’m fairly confident Trump won’t get too much of his campaign platform done. I just want to frame my expectations for what that translates to politically–for him, the GOP, and the Dems.
I’m expecting that a bunch of the things that he wants to get done are actually illegal, and involve violation of personal property rights or business laws, and he thinks that the Office of the President gives him the necessary clout to Make Things Happen. I don’t think that Congress is going to have to knock itself out resisting his efforts; his inexperience with the system is going to take care of that for them. Contrary to Rick Kitchen’s suggestion, I think he’ll get the GOP on his side by signing every bill that crosses his desk for a while. “Give me these 10 things, and I’ll sign 100 bills. Deal?”
I don’t think Trump will be able to tolerate the ‘three branches of government.’ My guess is he won’t mind blowing up a few things in order to narrow it down to One Branch.
Capitol Hill may well be the target of “terrorists”–though possibly not on Inauguration day, as I’d been assuming. He’d get the Clintons, true. That would be worth a lot to him. But with the number of Democrats boycotting the Inauguration, enough could survive to challenge any claim that In The Emergency, the operations of Congress must be suspended.
As to the OP, he’ll get plenty done. Sure, while the McConnells and McCains of the world will continue to show they’re worst of all time, a much larger portion of the GOP has enough sense to realize that this is a guy who successfully turned states which hadn’t gone Republican in 30 years red, and would rather try to hold onto those gains. They’ll throw Trump a couple of bones and he’ll do the same with Congress.
Plus, with 2018 not looking too kind to Democrats, you can be assured that Trump’ll get a few Democratic crossovers who’ll be willing to work with him to save their own seats. He won’t get everything he wants, because no president does, but the idea that he won’t get anything done is farcical thinking.
Cast your mind back to January 2009. Obama’s inauguration day. Think about the state of the economy. Think about the state of the armed forces and the conflicts in the world.
On this day in 2009, how much of this was Obama’s fault?
I look forward to January 2021, when we can compare notes on how the economy and foreign relations are doing.
I don’t think Republicans want history to record them impeaching one of their own. So, what happens is a lot of nothing, and the Dems are blamed for obstructing, and unlike the last 8 years of Republican obstruction that has already vanished from memory, Dems will be blamed for this presidency for the next 150 years.
So look for the upcoming Trump health bill to be, in your words, “Obamacare rebranded Trumpcare.”
I don’t see much the congressional GOP can do except to lie and say Trump-care is way different from Obamacare, when it really will only be a little different.
Trump won’t be able to get much done internationally because other countries are outside his control. But until his poll numbers get a lot lower than they are now, his congressional situation means he will have real power over domestic issues.
Don’t underestimate Trump. Some of his moves will be popular. Some may even be good. While I think he’ll eventually become a bad president, this may not be apparent in the first year or two.
What is the consensus on tax reform? On one hand many Republicans are in favor of lowering rates while eliminating deductions/exemptions while others think many of these deductions/exemptions are sacred. Some Republicans want massive tax cuts while other Republicans don’t want a massive increase in the budget deficit.
Thinking mostly of corporate taxes–the consensus is that the statutory rate should be lower, whether 15% or 25%. Unclear whether border adjustment and elimination of the net interest expense deduction make it into the final package, but these are at least negotiable issues on the GOP side. Whereas things like renegotiating NAFTA and building a taxpayer-funded wall are more fraught.
Did you know 92% of British people never have private insurance, mainly because it duplicates what is free ? And many of those who do are employed by multinationals who offer it as a perk ? I wouldn’t even know how one finds a private doctor.
Anyway, Old Obama didn’t achieve much either, then again from the start he had no clear idea of anything he wanted to achieve. Maybe healthcare, if only to stick it to the Clintons and their failure; but that was very imperfect.
Presidents who don’t achieve much can be a blessing.
You aren’t thinking of the impact Trump and the GOP will have on the courts. Why get rid of Trump when they have the presidency, the Senate, the House, soon to be Supreme Court, and most governors and state legislatures? You really think the GOP is going to choose to an unnecessary intraparty civil war? How does that make any strategic sense?
If the GOP were wise, they’d consolidate power and start trying to fracture the Democratic base by peeling off the blue collar labor and instigating fights between the progressive and centrist/Clintonian wings.
Also…who cares? Okay, fine, there are private doctors. They offer “nicer” service. Sweet. Lovely for those who have the money to pay for it…and it’s taxed, which helps pay for the public system.
(In Australia, this is a deliberate feature.)
The most important rule is that private doctors don’t get to “cut in line” for their patients: they don’t get organ donations in advance of public hospitals; they don’t get first crack at blood donations.
We are weaker now than we were in 2009. Trump should be more friendly to business which should help the economy. The number of unemployed not counted because they have quit looking for work is frightening.
Lets hope Trump doesnt screw up our foreign relations any more than Obama has. What did he actually accomplish? Opening up Cuba? And then turning his back on Cuban refugees? Embolding Russia almost from Day 1? Letting the ME spiral further into chaos?
I’m assuming when he becomes a liability to individual Congresscritters’ re-election efforts, they will flee the ship like so many rats. If he turns out to be a total dud in the sense of simply not DOING anything, the calculus could shift against him.
If emboldening Russia is so bad, then you must be about ready to piss your pants at what they’ll get up to with Trump as president. What exactly was so bad about normalizing relations with Cuba? Oh, they were juuuuuuuuust about to liberalize and become a free country, but then Obama opened an embassy in Cuba and they changed their minds?
You think the economy is worse today than in 2009? Seriously?
This is a classic case of Obama derangement syndrome. You’ve constructed a fantasy version of Obama in your head that bears no relation to the real Obama. Seriously, dude. Come on.