Purely speculative question that I thought of while reading this current thread about Kennedy assassination theories.
What would have happened if one of those attempts to assassinate Fidel Castro had been successful?
Remember, this was an era of full-on Cold War, with the Soviet Union probably at a high point of its power and ideological influence (within its own spheres, at least). This was an era that could have, and did, produce events like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
What would the course of history have been like – American history, Russian history, Cuban history, Latin American history – if the CIA had succeeded on offing Castro?
Impossible to say. Which is not about to stop me from saying things anyway.
I suspect brother Raoul would have stepped in and the Soviets would have propped him up just as they did Fidel. Can’t see anything in my (admittedly sparse) readings of the times that there was any in-Cuba discontent large enough to spark a rebellion, and the Bay of Pigs Fiasco would have been a…mess…no matter who was in power at the time.
Would brother Raoul would have been as committed to exporting revolution or allowing Russian missile bases to be built or ticking off a series of US Presidents? That I do not know. I’ll leave that for others to speculate on.
Pretty sure that Raoul would take over.
But had the CIA managed to kill Fidel with exploding cigars, that would have been neat. i don’t think its ever been done.
I suspect it would have been bad.
The Cuban regime at the time was very violent/defensive/aggressive-not sure what word describes them. But they were ready to rush the line and keep going. During the Cuban missile crisis the local Russian commander had full authority over the nuclear missiles. Moscow didn’t think they would be able to maintain communication and so he had all the authority necessary to launch missiles against the US. During the height of the blockade the Cubans were the ones pushing hardest for a nuclear strike. Even though everyone knew they would be the first to be hit back. With an attitude like that, if they were convinced the US had killed Castro, I suspect they would have over-reacted.
Hard to say. On the one hand, revolutions often need a charismatic leader. On the other hand, the USSR would have supported the communist regime no matter who was in charge. In my opinion, Soviet money would have kept it going.
By 1963 it was too late to cause an anti-Communist takeover. It might have had an effect many years later with a less rigid (Gorbachev-style) leader eventually taking over.
The key time was the months after the revolution. I don’t understand why the Mob didn’t take him out while he was consolidating power. They knew early on he couldn’t be bought off and that he was going to ruin their very lucrative business.
