He doesn’t have an “heir” set up, does he? My guess is that there will be a huge bloody power struggle, involving every Cuban in the U.S. rushing back to Cuba, and every Cuban in Cuba rushing to the U.S.
And whatever President is in the U.S. at the time sending covert troops over there, just to make things even messier . . .
I thought that he had a brother who had been tapped.
Although that won’t stop the US Cubans from trying to rush in, or the President from throwing a spanner, just to screw things up even more.
GLW
-Excelsior!
I read a book – though I think it is out of print – called Nineteen Eighty Five: The Year Big Brother Die[s/d] which is about the collapse of the Iron Curtain, told in the Oceana realm originally created by George Orwell. Interesting read.
Puh-leeze!! What are the chances of Castro dying? That man/robot, isn’t even human. I think he’s a tortoise. Those things live for atleast a hundred years.
He’ll move to a place much warmer than Cuba.
Regarding Castro’s brother as successor: Raúl is only a few years away from Fidel, at no time was even remotely nearly as popular, nor is he as skillful in working the crowd (internally or externally). He is Chief of Staff of the military, which does give him a good base in any power dispute, but the military is badly off these days. The likelier official succession scenario would be to give him figurehead status while a collective leadership of younger but well-established apparatchiks such as Alarcón and Robaina take over. At that point you then start worrying about ambitious mid-level Army officers deciding to take over for themselves, or about druglords throwing money at various Army or Party factions to take over on their behalf.
Whoever took charge, IF they got any sense at all would immediately seek a way to strike a deal with the internal opposition, for a transition to a legitimate government in order to give the investors peace of mind and get badly-needed foreign aid. If it’s the officialdom, they’d seek one that would NOT involve any sort of major “payback” phase; if it’s power-seeking Army or Pary factions, they’ll likely inflict the payback upon the losing factions.
Meanwhile the Miami crowd would be screaming and yelling even louder than ever for the USA to not accept any transition that does not involve having them be the ones who take over Cuba (and take their revenge), or even for the US to go in and shed some blood on their behalf taking Cuba back to hand over to them (fat chance). At the very least, we can be sure a lot of Cuban-Ams would be showing up in Havana demanding that whoever lives in the flats or runs the hotels that were built 25 years ago in what was grandpa’s farm 50 years ago, have to get out NOW! AND pay them rent for all those years.
The key element as to how long/short hard/easy the upheaval would be, is if the USA, upon the fall of the communist regime, would feel obligated to maintain a hard line on how things should go, or would aid and support any good transition plan to a democratic Cuba (into which most of our allies from Europe, the Pacific Rim and Latin America would likely jump in, carpetbags at the ready, whether or not we like it). I mean, there are folks in Miami with some political clout in the USA who will settle for nothing short of seeing every single non-defecting Cuban Communist Party official hanging from a lamp post, on fire, while being shot (AND get back grandpa’s farm, let’s not forget that).
In any case, if Cuba started to look like it would unravel completely into anarchy the US would end up intervening openly (maybe in a so-called “international” force, call it “Operation Prodigal Child”). Otherwise we’d play the factions, as usual.
jrd
Don’t you know? Elian will lead them into a glorious age!
It was prophesied by the DOLPHINS, people!
I find it funny that he’s outlasted 9 presidents, most likely 10. And outlived 4 of them, most likely 6.
Same as the rest of us, for a while. The anaerobic bacteria on his gut, no longer held in check by his immune system, will begin to break down his corpse. Blow flies will lay their eggs in wounds and orifices and … and then he’ll be copied in wax like Lenin and put on display in downtown Havana. But, with their heat and unreliable electricity, the wax better have a high melting point.
Just a quick note. Lenin was embalmed. Against the wishes of his family I might add.
Embalmed? Sure. :rolleyes: Mummufied? Never saw a mummy that looked that good this long afterward.
Wax.
OK… According to every reputable source I’ve seen, he was embalmed. Do you have any evidence? Or are you just spewing crap. If you do, I’d like to see it.
They have to keep doing the process. According to snopes, here (second-to-last paragraph), Lenin is re-embalmed every 18 months, and checked for decomposition and treated twice a week.
US-Cuba relations have been caught in stasis for decades due to the hotness of the buttons labeled “Communist” and “Fidel Castro”. Without those, I think Cuba would be pretty much like the Dominican Republic - a lot of poor people, some farming, some beach resorts raking in northern currencies, a lot of kids playing baseball, and a steady source of immigration to the US.
When Fidel dies, whether there’s a power struggle or not, all his successor has to do is make a show of renouncing “Communism” as some relic of the past (even though the system doesn’t have to really change), and the hot buttons will be gone. Even that may not be absolutely necessary. Either way, within a matter of months at most, the embargo will be lifted, the island will be flooded with Coca-Cola and McDonalds’, the Miami crowd will decide they don’t really want to go back and they’ll somehow get lives of their own, and we can all stop hearing about this crap.
The world will mourn the loss of a great leader.
How old is Castro? He has been dictator for 40 years, so I guess mid 70s?
Perhaps Lenin’s body is simply pure and inviolable, like that of a medieval saint, awaiting its intact entrance into Heaven on Judgment Day.
Or maybe not, but how would one tell the difference?
My prediction: Castro dies, and the communist leadership decides to canonize him (a la Lenin), including mummification and an elaborate tomb (which the cuban people MUST visit, on pain of death). However, the apparatchiks get nervous-what’s this? The peasants are demanding “free elections”? This must be American/Yanqui Imperialism at work!
Suddenly, once reliable army units disintegrate-Raul and his henchment flee the island (to North Korea?). A republic is proclaimed-and the US sends in the 82nd Airborn to restore order.
Ten years from now-Cuba has a thriving economy-the Cuban people have forgotten castro (the airconditioning system fails, and the body is now a moldy piece of corruption). In the interests of public health, it is cremated, and the tomb converted into a McDonald’s restaurant.
That’s easy: spewing crap. What did you think? Although there have long been (unsubstantiated) rumors to the contrary and it would be much cheaper to redo him in wax during one of those sesquiannual embalmings and just dust him once in a while.
Cuba will become a US territory and beach resort, like Puerto Rice.