What will happen when Castro dies?

Puerto Rico, but rice is nice.

That would be nice* and where things seemed to be heading earlier in the last century.

    • Okay, it’s shameless American imperialism that some folks might not appreciate. As if I, an Americentrist, care. :wink:

You know, this wouldn’t be a problem if a) the Slave States had managed to pass their initiative to annex Cuba in the 1850s; or b) Castro had been a slightly less temperamental baseball pitcher.

Really, I don’t see how Cuba can avoid remaining a dictatorship. It’s an island, which makes it pretty easy to control internally, but it’s a big island, which makes it difficult to invade and completely passify. After 40 years of indoctrination and regular culling of the undesirables through exodus or execution, I have trouble imagining a groundswell of public opposition to a new totalitarian regime. And while Miami talks a good game, I’m not sure how many Cuban Americans will actually be willing to return to–and repair–a systematically looted third-world country.

Unless, of course, the United States is willing to commit to a full-on physical invasion of the country. I consider that act likely only in the next 1,441 days or so.

Yeah, he blew BOTH chances to be a Senator in Washington!

<rimshot>

When Castro dies, he will start to decompose. Embalming will slow this preocess, but…

Sugar is the key to understanding the Caribbean. Cuba had and has lots of sugar plantations. This means lots of workers doing scut work for low pay, and a few barons. Ditto for lots of other countries in the region. The two most economically successful countries, Costa Rica and Puerto Rico, didn’t have as much sugar cultivation, because the land wasn’t as suited. So instead they had lots of small farmers.
Taking away PR because of the US influence, Costa Rica provides an excellent contrast to Cuba. CR has no army, while Cuba is completely militarized. CR is friendly to the US, including not just the government but the people, whereas Cubans are hostile. CR has a large middle class, the key to stability in any country, whereas Cuba, because of the predominance of the sugar economy, had and has only a small one. CR has had a stable democracy for a half century, while during that same time, Cuba has suffered through two dictatorships.
There’s always a small chance of a stable democracy taking root in Cuba, but it’s not a bet I’d want to make. More likely, they’ll swing hard to the right at some point after Castro’s death, and suffer the same brutality as they now do, but with a different uniform behind the baton. And the US, instead of taking in lots of white Cuban refugees, will find itself taking in lots of black Cuban refugees…

If there is a hell, this would fit my definition of it

The Floridian Cubanos will try to muscle into Cuba and bring back their system of privilege. The poorer folks won’t have it, so there will be a Civil War.

Huh uh. I don’t think the US would be able to annex Cuba.
Though it probably isn’t a very important thing now, someone is BOUND to bring up the Teller Ammendment.
That, and it would be REALLY REALLY bad PR, and the Cubans would probably revolt against us.

Oldie, I think you were a bit quick on the trigger. Chill out, baby, we love you.

Sua

I have been to Cuba, talked with many a cubano and know something about the history of this poor and beautiful country.

The Cubans are certainly and beyond any shadow of a doubt ready for democracy and sick of Castro, whom they do (nevertheless) and should respect for overthrowing the ludicrously oppresive Batista government.

If the States has any sense, and they have not proven this in any form, they will not permit the right wing Miami crowd to repopulate Cuba and try to get things to return to the way things were in 1956. This would result in Civil War, and the Cubans are much more prepared for this than the hapless ex-plantation americanos.

Tourism is still the main source of money in Cuba and they are clever enough not to risk this in a civil war. Dealings with Canada and Spain have shown them the value of democracy. The Cubans are more than ready for the Americans, but they are ready for democracy too. They have little patience for the ideology of communism and want the rewards of a freer market.

I think within two years of Castro dying Cuba will finally start building new edifices besides hotels and will start to import American culture wholesale. When I went to Havana, I was surprised that the only chain restaurant was “Pizza Nova”, a nothing Toronto chain. I liked Havana a great deal and was glad I saw it before it changes forever. The Cubans are as noble and hospitable people as I have seen.

I want to be re-embalmed every 18 months too.

We’d better get Unesco or someone to declare Cuba a World Non-Franchise Area, so there will be one place left in the world that remembers what things were like before the rise of McDonalds, Nike, etc. :slight_smile: