You are correct that the Republican Party does not want a brokered convention and they’ve set up the rules to avoid exactly that.
They don’t want a replay of Romney’s spring 2012 game of wack-o-mole either. Too bad wishes ain’t horses. The Republican Party is weak and the conservative media has very different incentives. The invisible primary has settled upon Bush vs. Walker, with an emphasis on the former. But Bush is currently in 3rd place and Walker isn’t an especially strong candidate. Combined they poll at 26%. Most of the candidates have priorites other than winning the Presidency: it will be hard to persuade them to step aside. Together the apresidential candidates poll at 47% and that total does not include Christie, Perry or Jindal.
Put it another way. Would Trump, Cruz, Paul and Huckabee like to star at a brokered convention? Oh yes, very much so. Reince Priebus will do everything in his power to head off such a scenario. But then again, he would also like avoid a Trump 3rd party bid. That would be even worse.
A lot should be clearer by August 20th. By that point the post-debate polls will have solidified and we will see if Trump has faltered or whether the entertainment value of this horse and pony show will bust the block.
My hunch is that the polls you cite are actually good for Bush.
Trump is not going to be the nominee. What he’s doing best is undercutting all the others in media attention, and that’s the only thing that drives polling a year before the convention. When his bubble bursts, who’s going to be left?
Walker and Bush. Rubio, the only other possibility, has been badly hurt. He may come back if Trump flames out early but that’s not the way the establishment is betting.
Bush is piling up the cash. Not from small doners, but from billionaires. He has an amazing lead in PAC cash. Walker has the Koch brothers but hasn’t shown any signs yet that he can multiply their effect.
The Republican establishment counts for more than the tea party. They obviously don’t want Trump as the face of the party. They’re backing Bush now so that he’ll be ahead when it really counts.
The only thing polls can you today is who’s on the outside looking in, not who’s going to win. Pay attention to the big money. It’s important for Democrats; it’s the only thing for Republicans.
I can see easily see Cruz and Walker rotating into Trump’s position. Walker’s job is to rotate in when people are actually voting. For Cruz it doesn’t matter as he mostly wants to build up a mailing list.
But probabilistically, I have to agree: Bush’s funding total crush the opposition’s. But let’s take a look at the 2012 polling - here’s the average of 2 polls from early August, 2011. [INDENT]Romney 19
Perry 16.5
Bachmann 7.5
Paul 7.5
Cain 5
Gingrich 3.5
Huntsman 3
Santorum 2.5
[/INDENT] Compare to: [INDENT]Trump 20.8
Walker 13.3
Bush 12.5
Carson 6.2
Cruz 6
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
Paul 5.8
Kasich 3.5
Christie 3
Perry 2.5
Jindal 1.5
Santorum 1.5
Fiorina 0.7
Graham 0.5
[/INDENT] Actually I can spin that either way. Bush is trailing behind where Romney was in 2011. But Romney nonetheless was only pulling in 19 percent of the vote, which emphasizes, well, the irrelevance of polling at this juncture.
Although, I will bow to the consensus’ wisdom (which is larger than my own) that there won’t be a brokered convnetion, there is one difference this year vs previous years that might keep things interesting until late in the game. In previous elections candidates who were behind after the first few primaries, found that their resources dried up and so were forced to drop out. This time around having a single billionaire in your pocket is enough to keep going. So unlike before we may see more candidates holding on to the end.
Here’s the scenario. Trump has deep pockets, and a small core of fervent supporters, so he won’t drop out. Bush has $100 billion in the bank and net favorability ratings only 10 percentage points higher than Trump. Bush won’t drop out until he burns through his cash. Under such circumstances, you could have a rotating cast of #1 winners, which would lead to a fragmented tally of delegates.
Meanwhile Walker, who lacks organization, money raising skills and campaign skills is #1 in terms of net favorability and in 2nd place overall. If this were a normal election, Trump would just drop out once he hit his ceiling. But because his motives are murky, we’re not sure what he’d do.
The question is would drop out? Here’s a list of remaining candidates, along with their current polling:
Rubio 6%
Jindal 2%
Perry 2%
Kasich 4%
Christie 3%
Gilmore 0%
Graham 1%
Pataki 1%
Total: 19%.
Ok, so 19% might drop out if they think they have little chance of winning the nomination. But the following lack such incentives, since they are running for other reasons:
Carson 7%
Fiorina 2%
Huckabee 5%
Santorum 1%
Paul 5%
Total: 20%. Add in Trump and that makes 40% of the first choice votes devoted to candidates whose prime motivation does not involve the Presidency. Result: a fragmented slate of candidates who win thin pluralities in various states.
There are 4 caveats to the above. Firstly TPTB don’t want a brokered convention and they don’t want to nominate Trump. (Though Trump has an ace in his sleave: he can threaten to run a third party candidacy.) Secondly, superdelegates make up 17% of the total. Thirdly, some of these candidates had their day in the sun in 2012: it’s not clear whether Santorum or Huckabee can secure another bump in the polls. Maybe some will take a second look at Perry. Maybe. Fourthly, it’s very early so those totals are soft. If Trump steps aside, then Cruz et al don’t have the leverage to spoil the process: it becomes a race between Bush, Rubio and Walker, with the last 2 willing to drop out if their nomination prospects become untenable.
Trump holds all the cards. Is he a cuddly Daddy Warbucks or a mean Bond villain? Who can say? [sup]1[/sup]
[sup]1[/sup]I’m kidding, mostly. Trump will probably peak before New Hampshire. Polling numbers are ridiculously soft now. The problem is that is not a certainty.
Only a few candidates have the funds to ride out a slump. Jeb and Trump can stay in til the end, for sure.
But if, Scott Walker or Ben Carson or Chris Christie can’t get a few solid primary wins, donors will give up on them, they’ll run out of money at some point and will HAVE to bow out.
And then somebody who’s left in the race will pick up their votes and end up with a comfortable lead before the first ballot at the convention.
Well, if anything the debate seems to have created more contenders, not fewer. In Iowa, there are now several candidates with 10% or more support and none with over 20%.
This is discussed at 538 today. [INDENT]natesilver: OK, let’s posit three degrees of ugliness.
An actual brokered convention.
The nomination is decided before the convention, but there’s genuine uncertainty about who the nominee will be after the last primaries.
No candidate has technically clinched the nomination as of the date of the last primary, but the writing’s on the wall.
[/INDENT] To me all 3 count as a “Brokered convention”: number one is beyond my wildest dreams. The subjective odds (no modeling) of one of those scenarios occurring is WAGed at 40-80% by 538’s journalists. Number 1 has 5-10% odds.
If you must forecast, forecast often. I think the party could survive a literal death even with option number 1. But it’s also true that the party establishment may have lost their grip on the mechanics. The normal consolidating process, whereby weaker candidates drop off one by one may no longer apply. Zombie campaigns by Santorum and Perry can continue for a while, backed by Super-Pac money that has no legal limits or disclosure rules. Furthermore, Trump, Carson, Cruz and Huckabee together break 50%. Trump himself has actually widened his base: for 24% he’s the first choice and moreover for 14% he is the second choice, more than any other candidate.
Opinions are soft in the August before the election year. But the establishment frontrunner is weak and it’s hard to see where Republican wacko support will go.
I think the new thing happening in the last few election cycles is that goofy loser candidates don’t drop out any more. They’re not running for president, they’re hawking their books and speaking dates and Fox News appearances. In the old days guys running at 5% would drop out. Nowadays what’s the incentive to drop out?
