Let’s say the big one hits So Cal… and the damage is so severe that the heavily populated areas are largely abandoned for roughly a year… what would be the effect on the rest of the country?
You’ll all die of boredom since I believe the majority of television is shot there and the average american watches close to 50 hours of television a day. Moving all that would be very expensive so I’d assume a lot of TV companies would go out of business. Somebody would have to fill in the market niche, and while that’s happening I expect most of midwest and south to perish in the boredom epidemic. New englanders and west coasters will switch to outdoorsy activities and reading books, I suppose.
ducks
Is this really a general question with a factual answer? If so, I don’t know the answer to this one…
That’s a lot of television!
Do you want an answer in 100 pages or one sentence?
It wouldn’t be just entertainment. Also:
–at least a million or so displaced people
–manufacturing
–transport of goods (greatest port in US, esp. Pacific Rim)
–Pacific Rim trade
–oil refineries, oil industries
–aerospace industry
–UCLA, USC, Occidental, Pepperdine, several Cal State campuses, Loyola, LA City and Santa Monica Colleges, etc., closed
–If Pasadena is affected, Cal Tech, Art Center and PCC closed
–major hub airport for west coast closed
–lots of various big companies headquartered in L.A. closed
–etc.
It would be a mess.
That’s going to be a very large earthquake to shut down Southern California for a year. You’d probably need a nuke to do something like that.
A big quake on the Puente Hills Fault would be a mess and tens of thousands would die, but you’d still have a decent chunk of Southern California unaffected.
Yeah. I don’t think there’s any record of something like that ever happening. There are too many faults to cause that much destruction.
Moved to IMHO since a factual answer is impossible. And I don’t think it rises to Great Debates.
samclem GQ moderator
To get destruction on the scale the OP wants, every fault in SoCal would have to trigger at once. Ain’t gonna happen.
On the other hand, a precisely-placed 7.8 could disrupt things for the whole planet. As posters above mentioned, it would all depend on where the epicenter was. If the San Andreas tore loose, it would affect me rather severely, since I can see the bloody faultline from my classroom window. San Diego wouldn’t even wake up. But if they had one that dropped some of the major interchanges in LA…well, let’s just say that it wouldn’t be pretty. Traffic would be snarled for at least 6 hours! 
Nope. It would take several nukes to disrupt things on a Katrina scale out here. We’re too spread out.
There have been quakes of 9.0 and above (Alaska in the '60s(?) and off the coast of Chile), but due to the geology of SoCal it’s not supposed to be possible there.
But just for the sake of argument, say the overpasses all fall down, all the electric power generation and transmission is thoroughly destroyed, the water supplies totally break, and the sewers are all blocked. Half the houses and apartment buildings fall down, and half the employers’ buildings fall down. And all the porn stars flee. And all the celebrities flee, after getting their pictures taken. Oh, and all the old folks’ homes evacuate to other states, we want them to be taken care of.
guizot’s list is good.
–Most of the population goes back and struggles with the issues (among other things, they gladly hire any illegal immigrants they can find).
–Everyone else gets sick of hosting refugees.
–Competing manufacturers put on a second shift.
–San Francisco/Oakland get a huge shipping boom, and so does Mexico, and Seattle. Recyclables pile up all over the western United States (what else do we export?).
–The price of gas on the West Coast really skyrockets, and elsewhere in the US it climbs. Worse if the Louisiana and Texas areas are still making repairs.
–Aerospace, too bad, due to the tie-ups with gov’t contracts might not be as flexible as manufacturing. However no doubt Halliburton may be available on a no-bid, no-accountancy basis.
–Irresponsible college students scatter to the winds, and their parents sue the schools for their fees back.
–Air travel shifts to the Bay Area and Arizona.
–Corporate mucky-mucks move to other centers, putting everything on the expense account.
–The river of tax dollars from the area to Sacramento drops (State of CA revenues drop to less than half, while outgo increases), and Washington feels a drop of let’s say 20-30% of its revenue.
–Insurance companies file bankruptcy. Lawsuits boom.
–California says, if the Feds can borrow, we can borrow, and goes to borrow $200 billion. The Chinese say the hell with it. World-wide collapse ensues.
My theory is that everything east of the San Andreas fault line slips into the Atlantic.
Hm, am I east of the San Andreas fault?
checks map
Oh, so you’re saying I’m ON the San Andreas fault.
…
Wonderful. Do I get to stay and can we keep Vegas? Possibly as an island of sorts?
:dubious:
My geography ain’t great, and I never really accounted for cities *right on * the fault line, but I’d buy a boat if I were you.
An ark of sorts? Two of every gay animal in the San Francisco Zoo?
runs away
It’ll be really, seriously, and truly horrible for a long time. But after watching the events of the last month, I don’t think it will be as bad as what New Orleans has experienced. Earthquakes are serious business, no doubt about that, but they seem to be selective. Rather than every single house or commercial building being destroyed in a given region, some would be destroyed, but most probably would not be.
All hope would not be lost. One lesson we learned from the LA riots (1992) is that they can totally rebuild a Taco Bell in South-Central in 24 hours.
The whole thing is Sam Andreas’ fault.
Yep.
And, after the quake, the hole thing, will have been Sam Andreas’ fault.
Yep.
I’d be very curious to see where those who left LA would relocate. Many of us have no desire to ever live in San Francisco, and a lot of San Diego is too expensive for many. Since more than a few of us already complain about the summer heat, I can’t imagine a mass exodus to Phoenix or Vegas either.
I’m thinking Denver and Seattle would be top choices. Personally, I’d probably head to Denver. But I may well be in the minority.
Funny you should ask. I was just reading The Socioeconomic Impacts of “The Big One” (PDF link)
yes, I’m a nerd. why do you ask?
**What if- “The Big One” Earthquake hits Southern California **
All those jerks from LA would come up here. We’d get pissed. The rednecks would get their guns. It’d be messy.
The someone else would get to win the national title. Stupid Trojans.