What is going on in Saddam Hussein's Head?

Great Debates
1

Apparently everyone seems to agree that - to one degree or another - he is not complying with weapons inspections. And everyone also agrees that the Bush administration is looking for a pretext to attack. And everyone seems to agree that if the US does attack, he has no chance of surviving as ruler of Iraq. So what is his game plan? What does he think is going to happen?

I can understand that if he complies fully he will have to give up evidence of non-compliance with past resolutions. But if he actually turns over all WMD and actually allows true unfettered inspections there would probably be enough world pressure to forestall an invasion. As it is he’s playing into Bush’s hands. I can understand that he feels that he wants or needs WMD. But if he is overthrown or killed he will not have them anyway. If I was him I would give the US every single thing they wanted, and then wait until the war/terrorism fever dies down - then go back to my games.

Perhaps he is absolutely convinced that they will be invaded anyway and that compliance or non-compliance will make no difference. Or perhaps he is keeping his options open for a last minute gesture. Or perhaps it’s just a personality thing - you don’t get to his position by being constantly afraid to take on big time gambles or by backing down from fights.

2

I’m not sure, but let me be the first to offer to drill in to find out.

Seriously, he’s an isolated dictator with scared yes men as advisors. He gained power through brutality. He does not understand democracies except insofar as he knows he can out wait elected presidents.

3

I think that he is pinning his hopes on the Arab world lashing back and bailing his ass out if the U.S. attacks him. He’s hoping the fight will last long enough and he can make it seem that the U.S. is truly waging a holy war, and somehow come out being a hero to the Arab and Muslim world. Yes, he’s that deranged.

He’s also probably hoping that Bush will back down. I think he even got one of his body doubles to disguise himself as Susan Sarandon and make that commercial. :stuck_out_tongue:

4

I think his general attitude is what you suggested; that nothing Iraq can do can prevent the US from attacking it, especially after Bush’s State of the Union Address:

And his Grand Rapids speech:

‘‘You don’t contain Saddam Hussein. You don’t hope that therapy will somehow change his evil mind.’’

So, he probably figures, what’s the point in cooperating.

5

Perhaps, if he cooperated, he could negotiate a nice live-in-exile deal. However, as it stands, he’ll just end up on trial somewhere, or dead.

Zev Steinhardt

6

He has already negotiated a deal to leave Iraq at once and accept exile at “America’s News Channel,” MSNBC.

The Iraqi strongman will host a new current affairs program entitled, simply, “Hussein,” and will take up residence in the time slot formerly filled by talk show host Phil Donahue.

7

Maybe, but I get the impression that Hussein figures that, if he does go into exile somewhere, his lifespan is going to be pretty short. Remember, even as President of Iraq, with all the security that comes with that, he’s got a bunch of body doubles and doesn’t sleep in the same bed every night.

8

“What is going on in Saddam Hussein’s Head?”

Fear, paranoia, and an addiction to power.

He is as a child who, having a toy (Iraq), sees other toys (Kuwait, Iran, etc.), is envious, and wants them too. Above all, he will not give up the toy he has, because then he will have nothing. He will do everything in his power to keep it. By asking him to give up weapons, he perceives we ask him to reduce his ability to keep power, therefore he will do his best to not cooperate while at the same time trying to keep up the appearance of cooperation in order to keep the big dogs at bay.

His strategy may be to attempt to make Bush out to be the fool at the last possible moment. On the eve of war, he hands over to the inspectors a portion of his stockpile that was “lost” and claim that it’s everything, that the rest was destroyed. Suddenly, it looks like he’s being more cooperative, the Americans won’t take it at face value, and now he’s forced to defend himself. He’ll ask, “Who’s the bad guy here?”

But it’s a miscalculation. The Arab leaders will shrug to themselves and answer, “Not us,” as they condemn the aggressive West to their own people, but silently cooperate to the extent of their own interests.

9

I’ll second that. If he actually did turn over his WoMD that would totally defang the United States. No matter what sort of horrible things he’s been cooking up, in theory we have to give him a free pass.

Then GWB can have Saddam for dinner at the White House and pose for pictures with Bush I, II, Barbara, Laura, and the twins. Saddam could stay in the Lincoln Bedroom.

10

Heh.

Maybe they marry off Jenna as peace offering. She could probably use the discipline of strict Islamic culture.

11

Iraqi associates of mine have varying opinions. What they do agree on is that whatever happens, he will stick it out to kill or be killed.

Many believe he is currently quite scared. However for many reasons he will never yield to this.

The other issue is that Iraq, like many parts of the Middle East, is essentially tribal. Saddam’s “tribe” will support him to the death, even if they live in fear of him. He can have reasonable confidence that he can rely on that support. All his major henchmen - police, ministers, army chiefs - are of his tribe, as I understand it. If not, he will have extensive leverage to “ensure” their continued support.

Also going on in Saddam’s head is a profound hatred of America, and despising of it. Remember that Iraq is an ancient civilisation, and place of long culture and tradition, far outdating most “western” nations and certainly America. In the same way Egyptians maintain huge pride for their ancient civilisation (even though they may well not be the people who built the pyramids), so does Iraq. Iraqis and some other “upper Gulf” or levantine Arabs sometimes rather jeer at the lower Gulf ones, claiming they have only 30 years of civilisation (ie since oil) compared to their millennia.

Put this pride and history in the context of an “upstart” uncultured nation arrogantly challenging Iraq’s national sovereignty (ie how Saddam is seeing it) and you can begin to imagine how mad with anger he has become.

It is my personal belief that going to war is pointless, because Saddam has nothing to lose and he will certainly have learnt from his defeat in the first Gulf War. What I mean by this is that either he does NOT have WMDs - in which case there is no excuse for aggressive measures of disarmament.

Or - as is likely - he has been building up stocks of nasties. In which case he will try and cause as much damage and destruction as he can until he is taken down. God knows what the possibilities are, but anthrax in Tel Aviv? A dirty bomb lobbed somewhere into Europe?

So while aggression might be “lancing the boil” - the spray of pus it is going to relieve could be an even greater evil. A better option IMO would be a continued close monitoring of Iraq, unlimited inspections (ie do them yearly, keep it regular) and a gradual reintegration of Iraq into the world economy to attempt to rehabilitate it. Because while its people are poor and desperate, they are even more powerless to effect change in their own nation.