You kidding? That horse would be one hundred and ten by now!
You… you…
There are no words. Go to your room.
Same question. Nothing on fivethirtyeight since the 25th of September.
[shrug] So beat him.
He left the NYT and went to ESPN (he started in sports analysis). He is planning on reopening fivethirtyeight.com but has a temporary home with Grantland.com.
I’m a little amused at how, after his public nerdfight with PPP, they’re now a “dubious polling firm”.
Silver sold fivethirtyeight.com to ESPN. He will be launching an independent website (with links to ESPN sites as well as Disney and ABC) sometime in the fall. It will feature data-driven analysis on various subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, etc.
Are you advocating flogging a dead horse?
Thanks for the link! I take back what I said about him missing out on commenting on the shutdown.
“Flogging” is rather a euphemism.
And let’s just keep it that way, OK?
When Trigger passed away, his remains were preserved by the very best taxidermic science, and placed on display in the Roy Rodgers Museum. Dale Evans was said to have remarked she had been hoping for the last twenty years to be stuffed and mounted. bad-a-boom, ting!
Then what went into those Roy Rogers’ sandwiches?! Not beef!
According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll it’s not looking good for the GOP.
He does come off a little buttsore. And honestly sounding more like one of those talking heads he derides than offering anything data-driven.
Fine to say there is not enough data to say much yet about long term impact. Fine to be dismissive of PPP (although I appreciate Wang’s analysis on this greatly). But boy while I do not argue with the assertion that much of the media over rates the impact that the '95/'96 shut downs had over a more moderate or longer term, I’d expect him to bring more data analysis to the table to support the assertion. It’s there. Even I’ve done a more in depth number analysis than that! There is a real analysis to be made of the 24 House districts that actually are considered swing, looking at each one and seeing how much swing needs to happen and given past elections in those districts how reasonable such is, factoring in current economic conditions, current disgust for incumbency, etc. Even if one wants to take PPP as “a dubious” house and one applies caution to thinking that thoughts at this point in time will be meaningful in a year. Wang begins such an analysis. Silver is just repeating the concept that gerrymandering has made it harder for the Democrats. He is either currently way busy with setting up the new venture or has gotten lazy (or both) but I am unimpressed.
I have a feeling Wang will be my go-to for number analysis this season.
He probably just shouldn’t have done anything with this issue. I doubt he has the time for any detailed look at it. The new 538 is going to be a full-blown destination with multiple staff, multiple writers, and a host of free-lanced stuff. Look at his hiring page, he’s trying to build a full site staff from (essentially) scratch. Give him about 6 months to settle in to the new gig (say about April-May of next year) and I think 538 will not only be back, but better than ever. But it’s gonna take time and he’s better off focusing on that then publishing half-thought-out articles on the crisis (or should it be crises?) du jour.
The whole new venture thing seems to me to come off like a chef that starts selling frozen dinners with his/her name on it. I do not have high hopes.
New poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (Democracy Corps):
:dubious: Yeah its the media:rolleyes:
You mad bro? When you bluff (and not raising the debt ceiling better be a bluff) and someone comes back at you all in, you’re supposed to fold. As long as Obama doesn’t cave in, the Republicans are in an untenable position. They have threatened the economic welfare of the nation to push their agenda and now it looks like they can either surrender unconditionally and take a huge hit or kill the hostage and get mowed down at the next election.
I don’t see why he has to give them anything? His rhetoric indicates he will not.
I suspect this may be the fig leaf but then he’s not really giving up anything.
I’ve also seen Republicans say “just let Obamacare happen and then people will see how horrible it is” The problem is that the objection to Obamacare is not that it will be unpopular (you don’t have to take the economy hostage to overturn an unpopular law), their concern is that it will be popular and create another permanent entitlement. Then the Republicans will have to claw and scratch to try and fix Obamacare with little to no political capital because they were so dead set against it in the first place.
I’ve also heard a lot more “a pox on both their houses” sort of sentiment than I thought I would from people who are usually more thoughtful about these things.
Well they’re both still unpopular among conservatives.
His record indicates otherwise, but perhaps he’s finally fucking learned.
For some, the second item there may be a factor, but fundamentally it’s only the first one - that the party that fought Social Security and Medicare and has paid the electoral price ever since, will continue that pattern for another couple of generations. Their electoral position is already hanging by a thread - they can no longer win the Presidency on their own efforts and merits, given demographics and the EC; they are in a minority in the Senate when in a more traditional world they’d have taken it last time, and they hold the House only by gerrymandering and that may be very short-lived. The American voting tradition of party-splitting is pretty well broken now, they’re the ones that broke it, and their best opportunity now is to keep the base riled up enough to turn out on Election Day.
Oh, that shit is just easy *and *fun, and gives you a warm sense of self-righteousness too.
As to the first part, call it a fig leaf, or call it “trading” … the rhetoric has included the promise of dealing … just no explicit deals made while the hostage is held with a gun to the head. The promise of a deal to be made later is within his position however.
As to the second, this poll, from before this mess, showed how true it is. Big shifts with a preference for the same party being higher than ever before (38%) and preference for different parties lower than ever (23%). A WSJ poll from a year ago also showed the same: a preference for same party by a margin of 52 to 39, compared to 29 to 62 two years ago.
Hard to know how much more so people feel that way now.
OK, reality check. Assuming that, for whatever reason, Obama comes to the conclusion that the Insane Clown Posse will fucking do it, will send the our economy and God alone knows what all over the cliff…
Doesn’t he have to cave? If the damage to him is bad, and the damage to us is bad, but the alternative is disaster, isn’t it his duty to give up? If I wanted firm machismo and bravado, I would have voted for McCain. I didn’t, and I don’t.
Keep in mind, some of the idjits have been publicly saying, sure, go ahead, cut the red wire, nothing will happen! So Krugman and a bunch of liberal economists say it would be a nuclear shitstorm, but Rand Paul and Ted Cruz know all about that stuff and they say everything will be ok…
To oversimplify, if he’s playing chicken with people who are too fucking stupid to flinch…then he has to, right?