This is a brainstorming session, I know its not possible to predict what’ll happen in 40 years.
But in another thread about retirement, people were discussing long term care and health care in retirement. Part of my assumption is that when I retire in the 2040s that technology will be more advanced, so living independently well into your 80s will be possible.
Its possible that medical care will make people healthier well into their 80s. But it could also do the opposite. Medical care could make disabled people live longer than they would otherwise. People who normally would’ve died end up lingering on for years.
So what kind of technologies could realistically happen that’ll let the elderly and disabled live independently in the short or medium term future?
Bipedal robots with working arms would be great, but that could be decades away. However when those show up, that’ll pretty much solve the issue I assume. But again, could be 50 years away.
Maybe tons of biometric sensors so that if their health takes a sudden turn for the worse, emergency medical personnel are automatically called. Like a life alert, but automatic and that covers a lot of biological data. But I think they have these already somewhat, there are bracelets that send an alert if you fall for example.
Online shopping and home delivery means you don’t have to go to stores, we already have that.
There are efforts to build 3D printers for food. I could see that making cooking easier.
What kind of tech would help people feed themselves, or use the toilet independently? Bathing or getting dressed?
Medical technology is advancing, and that would be the category most likely to benefit the old. Less need to physically visit to the doc if the doc (or virtual doc) can come to you.
We have had remote health monitoring for a while, and it is improving in convenience, accuracy and quality. My mom, ca. 1980, had a heart monitor using a dial-up modem, and this was before the Internet. She had to ring the doc once a day; now the monitoring can be done real-time.
Without severe restrictions on live births, this will be disastrous for the planet. Older non-productove people need the same amount of resources to survive as productive people and their medical care will be prohibitive. This is a horrible scenario for young people wanting a normal life without onerous taxes to pay to keep these people alive. It is horrible for the planet because it cannot support a bunch of elderly people with its limited amount of land, energy and water. No other species on this planet does this. I don’t want to die but death is guaranteed upon birth. Humans cannot manage the planet better than Mother Nature. Is it worth it to keep alot of elderly humans alive if it will lead to extinctions and resource depletion?
Birth rates drop to below replacement level once a nation becomes wealthy. A lot of rich nations are looking at too few kids, not too many.
Mother nature is not a genius. Life in the wild is brutal and cruel. Hardly worth emulating
Also the goal is to let the elderly live independently on the cheap so young people don’t need to care for them or pay huge taxes for their well being.
They will at first. Then they’ll be 50k. Then 20k. Then 10k.
Same way cell phones went from something only rich people in large western cities could afford to something the poor in Africa had over thirty years of development.
Just like cars and jet airplanes? Those are likely a much better model for the pricing of an extremely complex bulky mechanical system–the price keeps going up as new features and safety regulations are constantly added.
Cars have become more common. They used to be tools only the rich had. Then middle class famliies had them but they only had 1 car per household. Now even in poor households it isn’t uncommon for every adult to have their own car (so if they have 3 adults in the household, they all have their own car).
Air travel has also become cheaper. It used to be much rarer to fly than it is now.
So yeah, I think it will. But it’ll be more like computers and cell phones in the sense that they get a lot cheaper and a lot better.
Are you at all familiar with what it costs to hire a home healthcare aide? Or to put someone in an assisted living facility? Neither is cheap. A hundred thousand dollars for a robot that could work 24 hours a day, seven days a week might make sense, if it can reliably take care of a person in old age.
There are different sorts of elderly and disabled people. My father was able to live independently until his final week of life in his late 80’s. I’ve known people who were willing and able to continue full time work into their 80’s and in one case up until 100. Such people do get frailer as they get older, but in their case technology to allow them to continue to live on their own might be as simple as grab-rails in the bathroom, living quarters on one level, some help with carrying stuff (perhaps grocery delivery) and the like. Some of us will be fortunate to not need that much help.
Other people are a mess by 45.
Universal medical coverage might help, getting treatment for problems before they get out of control and affordable medications for chronic conditions.
It would help if hearing aids didn’t cost thousands of dollars and/or were covered as part of healthcare.
Those who go blind could really use some of the adaptive technology already available.
Many people could benefit from targeted exercise and/or rehab type programs to maintain their strength and flexibility.
Ensuring adequate nutrition for the elderly is also a good idea, especially if someone is having trouble cooking.
I realize none of this is as sexy as a personal robot, but it’s stuff we could be doing now to help keep people as healthy and independent as long as possible.
I could definitely see more of that. There are also automated medication dispensers that help people keep track of and properly take medications.
The option to not go to a store is fine, but I’d hate to see old people under house arrest. Perhaps what they need is someone to go with them to assist with the shopping.
Also, assistance with things like laundry and some of the cleaning would be of great help.
For food: microwave ovens can be a godsend. But also programs like Meals on Wheels. Again, not as sexy as robots but very valuable.
Accessible in-home bathrooms would be good. I already mentioned grab-rails. There are extensions you can put on toilet seats and also hand-rails for home toilets that can be had now. Shower chairs. Showers chairs can help folks bathe.
Getting dressed - well, sometimes it’s a matter of clothing choices. Velcro, for example, might be easier to manage than buttons.
Really, it’s not just about “bipedal robots”, there’s stuff we could be doing now to help the elderly that is either not done or done piecemeal.
I agree, I think it’ll be a lot of small things that make the transition easier. Maybe by mid/late century we will have robotics to do a lot of the work, but in the coming decades I think the fact that almost everything you need can be bought online will really help the elderly. As **Nemo **said, self driving cars (or uber for that matter) will help out quite a bit too.
I think it’ll be more 100+ small things than one big thing that lets a lot of elderly live independently for longer periods.
The human adult will still weigh 200 pounds, and lugging the body around is the problem. Getting a non-ambulatory adult into a car is a problem that makes self-driving cars seem a trivial benefit by comparison.
In advanced age, bone strength is often so diminished, that the femur breaks from the standing weight alone (My mother’s did). Mobility of the heavy body weight is the main issue.
I read this article in Wired a couple years ago about digital companions for seniors, that are controlled by real life people. I found it very interesting.
It’s a long but engaging article. Much of it is about the service called CareCoach, or which is now called GeriJoy.
OMG, I’ve never weighed that much and hope I never do!
But, point taken. Then again, I mentioned exercise/rehab programs. It won’t help everyone, but in some cases it can mean the difference between being unable to walk and being able to walk sufficiently to handle a step or two and walk from the front door into a car. It can promote sufficient bone density to put off the broken bones a few years longer. Not only would making such programs reduce the burden of elder care on society (whether to the formal medical system or to relatives/friends caring for them) but also promote better quality of life for the elderly themselves.
All this talk of technology is great, but if we aren’t willing to pay for things that help keep people healthy and mobile that we have right now who is going to pay for these home health aide robots?
Well, then perhaps they’re not the target market. But millions of others could afford a home healthcare aide robot, even if it costs $100,000. And even then, that same robot could be used to staff a cheaper assisted living center. (And actually, millions of others who don’t need a home healthcare aide might want such a robot as a household servant.) This all supposes a feasible $100,000 bipedal robot that could reliably work around normal people. I’m skeptical that such a thing is going to be available anytime soon.
Japan has had this problem for a while. Now China is facing the same future. (It may seem weird that the most populous country in the world doesn’t have enough people, but the demographics are not looking good for them.)
They won’t be. Sorry, no bipedal robots to take care of you. But you will get better nappies and better food pouches. You will still need humans to take care of your human needs for the most part.
The biggest problem I see is a a lot of elderly people have dementia to various degrees. Any kind of technology that requires the user to actively operate it is not going to work for a lot of people, because they won’t remember how to use it. My mom got to the point where she couldn’t even operate her two-button thermostat correctly. We had to put a lock on it because she would adjust it to ridiculous and potentially dangerous temperatures.