The Jaguars and the Bucs are both bad teams, but the Jags still like coach Gus Bradley and will still play hard for him, whereas Greg Schiano has completely alienated the Bucs.
If Schiano gets fired soon, I see the team getting pumped up and winning a few games down the stretch. If he keeps his job til the end of the season… well, they’ve already quit on him, and 0-16 is not unlikely.
The Chiefs will lose soon. They’re NOT a mirage. They’re a genuinely improved team that will make the playoffs. But they haven’t played any really tough games yet. Once they do, they’ll lose a few.
In my just-for-fun NFL pick’em league, I actually picked the Jags to win against Denver a couple of weeks ago. Not just cover the historic 28-point spread, but win outright.
My rationale was that there had never been such a lopsided spread in my years of picking in this league, and even if I’m in this league for the rest of my life, there likely will never be another. This would likely be the only chance I’d ever have in my life to make such an incredibly stupid pick. You don’t let once-in-a-lifetime opportunities just pass by. I thought, “Oh, WOW, that would be stupid… I’m totally going for it.”
There was some political pundit who predicted a Romney win right before the 2012 election for this reason. He said he was aware of how unlikely that outcome was but went on to say if he was right he’d look like a genius for the rest of his life for having outguessed all the other experts.
Hmm. That’s all good and well from a self-interest point of view, but it’s totally worthless the second you let people know your motivation. What’s impressive isn’t making “the pick,” but rather having the knowledge and expertise that allows you to make the pick.
Even if he only let slip his little scheme after the election, well, why would I ever trust anything this guy ever says in the future? I don’t suppose you could find out who this guy was?
But consider it the opposite way. If he admits he’s gaming his prediction, he maintains credibility if he’s wrong - he has the excuse that he was just playing the long odds. But if he makes an unlikely prediction and pretends it’s based on his actual belief then his erroneous prediction strikes at his credibility.
To bring it back on topic, would you predict right now that the Jaguars are going to win this year’s Superbowl? Of course not.
But suppose somebody was offering you a serious bet at 100000-1 odds on them winning? I would definitely put a dollar down on that bet. My chances of winning are extremely remote but I’d be willing to risk a dollar for a remote chance at winning a hundred thousand dollars. And under those circumstances, nobody would argue I was foolish to make the bet.
Right, but actually spilling the beans about your motivation still hurts you. It’s more like if one of the talking heads on the NFL pregame shows picked the Jags to win, then later admitted that wasn’t who he thought would *really *win, it’s just the team he wagered on because the bookies were offering great odds. Or something.
And yeah, admitting his scheme after the fact might make him seem less dumb, but it also makes him seem less, you know, trustworthy.