There’s no way to answer this question without knowing who Trump’s opponent would be. If it’s Buttigieg, I’d need the highest possible odds. If it’s Warren, I’d need almost no odds at all.
I consider his odds of winning at around 50/50, maybe a little better than that. I would invest heavily at $5 to every dollar I’d bet.
Well, it’s not that there’s no answer prior to the nomination, it just more complex. You need to multiply the probability of each Dem getting the nomination by the probability of Trump winning conditioned on that candidate being his opponent, and add them up.
Three distinct polls are needed.
What are the odds of this POTUS winning the popular and electoral votes?
What are the odds of him winning the electoral but not the popular vote?
What are the odds of him winning the popular but not the electoral vote?
As happened before, he could win one but not the other. Any candidate can theoretically claim electoral victory with only 28% of national popular vote. What are the odds such an outcome would be accepted by the populace?
Election is over a year away. We don’t know who’ll be in it. Gambling and polling sure are fun.
I honestly don’t think he’s going to win. Hell, I’m not convinced he’ll make it to the election at this point. So, I’d want greater that 1 to 100 at this point to bet real money on it, if I’m betting on him winning.
I’m not sure why it needs such distinction (although you can start with such a thread if you want.) That would muddy things up unnecessarily. Winning is simple, 270 EVs. It doesn’t exactly matter whether Trump gets the popular vote or not, any more than it matters if the Patriots hit 400 yards of offense in a Super Bowl that they win.
Then why not go to Betfair, and get 40% interest on your investment over the period from now until November 2020?
I give Trump about even odds at winning in 2020, maybe as low 11:9, but not much lower.
Makes me really sad that my fellow citizens are that dumb. I think the guy weakens the US with almost every action he takes.
For some reason, the $20 level came immediately to mind, so I picked that. But now that I think of if, it was the wrong level. I am convinced that even now, if nothing else “happens”, Trump is surely toast in 2020. There is just no way that a guy who has never been that popular anyway, is going to win re-election with his popularity continually dropping, especially that he barely as fuck squeaked by last time. Nah, I’m very well assured: Trump will not, and cannot, be re-elected.
Well why would I? Just because I’m convinced of something doesn’t mean it will turn out the way I’m convinced of it. I will note that I was convinced Trump wouldn’t win the first time.
I don’t generally bet real money on anything I don’t control, even if I THINK it is a sure thing, as, to me, gambling is kind of stupid. YMMV. Feel free to bet (or not) as you will.
I didn’t think it was possible for him to win the first time, I didn’t think 63 million Americans would vote for someone that deranged, criminal, incompetent, mentally unbalanced, treasonous and corrupt.
But I underestimated America, and now he is president.
Having said that, I’d wager he only has a 1 in 5 or so chance of re-election. I believe his chances according to 538 in 2016 were 1 in 3. But he had a lot of advantages in 2016 he lacks in 2020.
- It would’ve been a 3rd term for a democrat, and voters don’t like one party in charge for 3 terms.
- Hillary wasn’t a very exciting candidate. She didn’t motivate the base.
- Trump ran as anti-establishment, now he is the establishment.
- Trump has done a lot more crimes and they are much more public now.
So I’m hoping that’ll peel off a few million votes.
But yeah, being an American is embarrassing and demoralizing. What was the question again?
I wouldn’t because i believe if the market says “about 40% chance” then “about 40% chance” is probably accurate. If I was stating I’d need 100-1 to bet on option A then I’d be looking to dispose of mega money if somebody was giving me 60% implied odds on not-A.
“Presidency, n. The greased pig in the field game of American politics.” -A.Bierce
Are US presidential campaigns the same as US football seasons? Really? Or is every POTUS necessarily a pig?
Again, a presidential candidate can hit 270 EVs with only 28% of the popular vote. Those thinking that would be considered ‘fair’ are IMHO potential bridge purchasers.
My oft-asked question remains unanswered: How well has installing losers worked?
This is a silly point because no one’s ever going to get exactly 50%+1 vote in states that have 270 votes and zero votes in other states. It would take an absurd statistical outlier for the difference to be more than a few percentage points.
It’s like saying that you might die of asphyxiation if all the air molecules happen to go to the other side of the room. Mathematically impossible.
Well, it hasn’t caused a civil war yet, and the Union persists, so I’d say it’s worked out kinda ok. Looking at the list of Presidents who lost the popular vote, I don’t know enough about the 3 early ones, but Bush won the popular vote in his next election, so he was arguably vindicated by the populace. Trump is a disaster, but he’d be a disaster even if he’d won the popular vote, so so what?
Technically, sure, but in practice, virtually impossible. This would be like a team winning a football game despite being outgained 500 yards to 100 in offense.
Once or if a presidential candidate loses the popular vote by 5% or more, victory is all but impossible.