If he can get out of Belarus in the first place.
Game of Thrones.
Are we sure he is even in Belarus?
Latest mention by Lukashenko is that no, he’s still in Russia (St. Petersburg) - which raises an number of very interesting questions.
I doubt there’s a simple exile exit plan for him. Where would he go? Belarus only works until the governments change - wanna bet your life? Middle East or Africa? I’m sure between Putin and the West, the kindest he can hope for is eventual extradition to the Hague. Central Asian republics? Mostly they do what Moscow asks. But then, so does Lukashenko…
Prigo will live every remaining day of his life at the pleasure of the Kremlin. And perhaps the pleasure of a couple of other intelligence services. There’s nowhere he can hide that will insulate him from those risks.
Kinda like industrial-scale drug smuggling, the rewards for successful warlording can be large, but the retirement plan generally sux.
Posted this in the In Defense of Russia thread in the pit; the commenters take is that either 1) he’s already dead and the smear campaign against him in Russian state-controlled media is to prep people for whenever its officially announced or 2) Putin’s got some serious problems, Prigozhin has people in the government security apparatus protecting him, Putin can’t get at him to kill him and thus isn’t in full control of his own country as the man who led the march for justice mutiny and attempted overthrow of the government is travelling freely in Russia contrary to the agreement that was allegedly reached. Lukashenko says Prigozhin isn’t in Belarus, and his personal plane has been tracked flying to Saint Petersburg and Moscow.
If he’s in public in Russia he’s got a lot more going on vs. Putin than we all think. As your 2) suggests. I would not have labeled that a credible possibility a week ago. But if it’s true, it’s Earth-shattering news. Or at least Kremlin-shattering news.
That’s where things get really murky. He hasn’t been seen in public since June 24th, his last social media post was a few days after that, Lukashenko said he returned to Russia, St. Petersburg specifically on Thursday, his private jet was tracked to there and then to Moscow where Lukashenko speculated he was leaving for Thursday morning.
The Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has returned to Russia, the Belarusian president has said, despite a peace deal with the Kremlin under which Prigozhin had agreed to move to Belarus.
“As for Prigozhin, he’s in St Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus,” Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday. “Where is Prigozhin this morning? Maybe he left for Moscow.”
Lukashenko said Wagner fighters were stationed at their camps in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, adding that his offer to host them in Belarus remained.
As for what any of this means, it looks like only time will tell.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if someone in the Russian state security apparatus is looking to keep options open and hedge their bets for a post-Putin era, even if there’s no immediate likelihood of that arriving. But where a loose cannon like Prigozhin would fit into that - who can tell?
The Guardian is starting to speculate about Prigozhin’s appearances - or lack thereof. Despite a few claims about where he is or has gone, he hasn’t been seen in the flesh on in any media. And now the Russian news media are showing video of the police raiding Prigozhin’s ‘palace’ and Wagner’s office. All starts to look like an officially sanctioned campaign to soften up expectations that Prigozhin is already an ex-person. Either that, or he was smart enough to bolt a week ago.
In truth I can’t imagine that anyone would be naive enough to imagine Putin would forgive. No matter who you were. He just doesn’t roll like that.
It is pretty clear there is, and has been, a lot going on we don’t know about.
I would think that the majority of members of the Russian government, military and security groups with any seniority would be doing that. The trick is to keep your options open without any apparent lack of loyalty. That can become a difficult game.
'Zactly. Putin would not “forgive”, whatever that means.
If Prigo is useful to Putin alive for reasons we don’t understand, Putin might well leave him alive but neutered for awhile. If Prigo is useless to Putin then Putin will want him dead as soon as Putin is sure Putin has control over the rest of Wagner. That need to ensure control over post-Prigo Wagner may be the delaying factor right now. Although it’s not certain Putin would need Prigo alive, much less free, to accomplish Putin’s consolidation over Wagner. Having Wagner’s remaining leadership thinking Prigo is still alive now might be enough.
If Putin wants Prigo dead now, but so far FSB hasn’t delivered the tortured but still recognizable body, Putin will be starting a purge in FSB. I’d not want to be one of the senior people shielding Prigo for my own reasons when a loyal Putin goon shows up to ask me why my efforts to catch Prigo are failing.
The only “evidence” anyone has about Prigo’s whereabouts is that a jet he sometimes uses has probably* flown between Belarus and Russia. That’s a mighty slim reed.
Did we ever have independent corroboration that following the halting of the march to Moscow Prigo actually left Russia and entered Belarus? Or was that too simply Lukashenko saying he’d brought Prigo with him when Lukashenko returned to Minsk?
* The common forms of flight tracking are definitely spoofable for people with enough money & tech behind them.
A jet bearing the ID code normally associated with Prigo’s jet is not necessarily actually Prigo’s jet. Much less assurance that he is aboard it each time it moves. That sort of shell gamesmanship would be an expected part of him either being “disappeared” by the Russians, or successfully slipping away to hiding in some random lawless part of the world.
That is an awesome comic. Thank you.
Is that set of characters a one-off, or is the whole series the ongoing saga of the Evil Empire and Dad? I clicked around a little, but couldn’t quite decide.
And what a long strange trip it’s been
The son is one of the comic’s main protagonists.
The father, much to his dismay, is only a third-string antagonist, whose story will probably be resolved by everyone basically just ignoring him for the remainder of the strip’s run. His other son, the protagonist’s evil twin, was a much more significant villain.