In Pennsylvania, I will be least surprised if the Democrats sweep all statewide races except that incumbent GOP Auditor General Tim DeFoor hangs on. He stood up to pressure from fellow Republicans to investigate our fairly run 2020 election, and has not endorsed Trump. I probably will vote for him.
…so you were surprised/shocked when Biden only won by taking 306 electoral votes last time?
…are you shocked/outraged in wartime if an enemy launches a torpedo at your submarine?
Disappointed, naturally.
On reflection, I suppose it was imprecise to suggest that I wouldn’t be surprised by the ideal outcome I described. “Gratified” can be characterized as a type of “surprised,” after all.
Yeah, that was my first thought as well, that the SC would find some excuse to “rule on the election” and hand the Presidency to Trump.
The word “sin” has religious overtones so I don’t tend to use it, but, since late 2015, I’ve agreed with your sentiment 100%.
Mrs. Map and I have given up waiting for our “Harris/Walz” lawn sign (I guess it’s partly a good thing the campaign hasn’t kept up with demand), so we ordered an unofficial sign through Etsy that says:
HARRIS/WALZ
OBVIOUSLY
Least surprising would probably be a Harris popular vote win of upwards of 6%. I think she will easily win the popular vote. It will still be tight in certain states.
That would be good. The Votemaster figures that a DEM has to win by at least 3% to overcome the EC disadvantage.
^This. We know that many on Trump’s side are counting on this very eventuality.
Democrats do know about these plans, of course, and counter-measures are planned–but who knows if they will be sufficient? Even if they are, they won’t be deployed fast enough to give us an answer by November 6.
I really don’t expect to know the results for quite a few days, at least, after November 5. Even if Harris wins the popular vote by a wide margin, some of the state and local officials planning mischief will be working hard to commit that mischief, and courts will have to sort it out.
Court battles aside, it’s almost certain that we won’t know the results on election night because PA and GA do not allow mailed ballots to be counted before election day. It’ll likely take a few days to tabulate those votes.
Here’s the canary – if NC is called for Harris on election night, game over. NC does allow early counting of ballots, and if the returns are such that the networks can comfortably declare NC for Harris then she’s almost certainly romping in the other swing states.
Good point – but recent polls show NC to be tied, and recent PA polls have been mixed (averaging out to almost a tie as well). While it’s unlikely, Harris could win NC, and then lose in PA.
One reason this could be important is that her polling has softened in Michigan. Three weeks ago, Michigan looked pretty confidently for Harris – but now it’s not so certain. If Harris loses PA and Michigan, but wins Wisconsin and North Carolina, will it come down to Arizona and Georgia? And if AZ and GA are split (one to each candidate), will it come down to Nevada?
I’ll let someone else do the math.
Maybe.
I agree w your general thesis that voter sentiment in all the swing states ought to be similar.
But there are still significant local differences that will manifest due to vagaries in the campaigns’ messaging and relative emphasis between states, etc. And to how well or badly the local working class economy is faring.
More balefully, the efforts at voter intimidation, voter suppression, and court-based electoral challenges may well vary considerably from state to state.
IOW, voter sentiment != votes both cast and counted honestly.
Those efforts might be far more influential than the natural delta between Harris & trump.
Okay, fine. I’ll do the math.
In my proposed scenario (Trump gets PA, MI, and GA; Harris gets WI, NC, and AZ), it does indeed all come down to Nevada…AND Maine’s second Congressional district.
Just Nevada wouldn’t be enough – that would produce a 269-269 tie, i.e. a win for Trump. Harris would also have to win BOTH districts in Maine, to win the presidency. (Plus, of course, that one Nebraska district; I believe that, in Nebraska, things are more fixed: she’s very likely to win that district, but certainly will not win the other one, nor the state).
This underscores the importance of shoring up Michigan. And, it helps explain why the Harris campaign has recently been reported putting some energy (TV ads?) into Maine 2.
Presidential Race? Harris winning both Pennsylvania and Georgia and it standing up to Trump’s lawsuits.
Non-Presidential Race? Colorado CD-8 flipping from Dem to Pub.
You’re saying you wouldn’t be surprised if Trump wins lawsuits in GA and/or PA that would give him the presidency, despite his factually having received fewer votes in those state(s)?
Wow. Bleak! I’m not saying it can’t happen, but I would be surprised if it did, not if didn’t.
Nope. I’m saying I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris’ victories in PA and GA were upheld by the courts.
Phew! Thanks.
I don’t know why this would be a surprise result to anyone. Nearly every analysis has this district as a toss up.