I was think of creating a poll but better open ended maybe? I can think of several unlikely results that would not shock me.
Harris losing PA and winning the EC?
FL going Harris?
TX?
Harris winning the popular vote by under 2.5 AND still winning the EC? (My choice with FL second.)
A Harris popular vote win by more than 6 points?
A Harris loss by more than 0.5?
Other?
Of these only TX going Harris would completely shock me.
Harris getting more than a couple of southern states. I can see her winning Georgia, and maybe North Carolina by a hair. But if she pics up both of those and then Florida as well, I’d be completely gobsmacked, and feel like I just jumped timelines.
I would not be the least surprised if Kamala beats Trump by more than 6% in the popular vote.
I would be the most shocked if she somehow takes the Electoral College while losing the popular vote to Trump, given how weighted the EC is in Republicans’ favor.
How about winning the EC with an under 2.5 popular vote margin, or even under 2, given most consider the EC advantage to be about 3?
Least surprising? The Democrats controlling both the House and Senate as well as the White House. I can see it happening if just enough Republicans decide not to vote - maybe throw in a rumor that if the Democrats do get a clean sweep, Taylor Swift will perform at one of the inaugural balls and it will air live on TV, although does she have that many fans who (a) are voting age and (b) don’t live in solid blue areas?
Oh, I see, I misread you. I thought you had meant Kamala losing the popular vote by 2.5%.
If she wins the popular vote by only 2-2.5% but still beats Trump in the EC, I would not be surprised at all.
Are we limited to the Presidential election, or are we talking about this year’s elections in general?
If the second, I would be surprised but not extremely so, if Colin Allred defeats Ted Cruz in the Texas senatorial race.
I will not be surprised if the next president is not known by the end of Election Day, or even for several weeks/months(?) afterwards. Nor will I experience shock if seemingly endless court challenges to the result make America look like a “shithole country,” ultimately exposing (more) vulnerabilities of U.S.-style democracy for the world to see.
I would not at all be surprised if SCOTUS ends up choosing the president. And I know how that will go.
This is the second straight Senate race in which Cruz is fighting for his electoral-career life. In 2018, he only barely fended off Beto O’Rourke - again, in a state where Republicans have a baked-in million-vote advantage.
I would be pretty surprised – although happily so – if Cruz were to lose. I know some polls show a tight race, but Greg Abbott and Texas Republicans have put so many thumbs on the scale through their “election reform” that Allred probably has to beat Cruz by a good 3-4% for it to stick.
Trump seizing the government through lies and corruption, with enough Congressional support tied with Congressional “We are going to meet about this soon-you betcha!” to let him take control.
Trump has a heart attack before his sentencing date and ultimately escapes any form of legal accountability for any of his actions.
For a brief moment there I was also worried when I heard Harris and Walz were doing a bus tour. Don’t put the entire command crew on the same shuttlecraft!
The OP did not stipulate this had to be about the Presidential race so I’m going to say the least surprising surprise result for me would be one of two Senate races going to the Democrats -
Allred beats Cruz in TX or Mucarsel-Powell beats Rick Scott in FL.
Democrats winning both would be a shock.
I’m going to ignore the sentencing date argument, but I will agree that the surprise result that would least surprise me would be Trump suffering some medical event that forced him to withdraw. A heart attack, a stroke, or something similar.
He was obviously stressed at last Tuesday’s debate. He was put on the spot many times, and it showed: he veered off into topics he was more comfortable with (immigration, when asked about the economy), he spoke BS (babies being executed, Haitians eating dogs and cats), and he was clearly stressed. This was not the cult leader speaking to his cultists at a cult rally, it was the cult leader speaking to non-believers. And his fright at having to do so was on display.
That fright and stress is what makes me think he’s going to have some sort of medical event if he has to address more non-believers before election day. I don’t wish ill on anybody, not even Trump, but I think he may find himself suffering one sooner than later.
Well, as everybody knows, it’s a sin to cast a vote for a Republican. For any office at all. So I won’t be surprised when Kamala Harris is elected with 538 EVs, the HoR winds up with a 435-0 majority (give or take a couple of independents), and every Republican Senate seat in play this cycle flips Democratic.
You won’t be surprised at humans refraining from sin? I want to move to your universe.
The Supreme Court intervening in order to invalidate some state’s voting totals and declare the state for Trump.
Kamala losing PA and GA and still winning.
Well, maybe a little surprised. But I’ve been pounding that “electing Republicans is a sin” drum for more than a year, and it’s not like I’ve had a lot of help from y’all. The most I’ve gotten is that nobody has challenged the assertion’s factuality (which is just as well, since that isn’t in question), and under the doctrine of silence is consent y’all agree.