One week from today, we’ll all be glued to our screens as we watch the election returns come in. What would you say are the dealbreakers to look for early on. What I mean is something like, “If Clinton wins Florida and Pensylvania, then it’s all wrapped up.”
At what point will you feel the outcome is pretty well certain?
Add North Carolina to that and you pretty much have it.
North Carolina is the real bellwether. If Hillary wins that one it’s pretty much over.
When the results are in from all 50 states.
:o
We can probably call it before Hawaii is in. One way or the other!
I think she’ll win Pennsylvania. If Florida or Ohio go to her, it’s over.
But North Carolina would also do it.
In post-brexit times, I’d probably wait until the final bell. I waited until the bell for the “Fight of the century” this year (I picked Mayweather to win that fight- it’s all about numbers), it’ll happen for this election that I’ll see it to the bitter end.
If Trump loses Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina, it’s hard to imagine how he wins. So if Clinton wins any of those
If he manages to take those early contests, then the question is whether he wins in Pennsylvania – if Trump sweeps all four, he wins.
But even if he doesn’t complete the sweep in PA, he could still win with victories in New Hampshire and Nevada.
So if I look at see Clinton winning PA and NH, I’ll probably start breaking out the beer. And if Clinton loses FL, OH, NC, and PA, then I’ll probably start drinking whiskey.
Assuming PA, any one of FL, NC, OH does it for Clinton.
If Trump wins PA, he still needs FL, NC, OH, but the chances of him doing it are much higher.
According to septimus:
UTC is universal time (basically, Greenwich Mean Time).
septimus mentioned three other states that could be key, but not their poll closing times. Here they are, in US CENTRAL time:
8:00 Wisconsin, Colorado, Nebraska
9:00 Nevada
At the moment, Wisconsin would appear to be a fairly safe bet for Hillary Clinton. Colorado seems stable for Clinton at the moment as well, though indeed it’ll be worth watching if the actual returns indicate that the polls might be off. Nobody voting for Clinton is going to get a wink of sleep until she gets to 270.
Nevada matters if Clinton loses FL, OH, NC, and NH – if she loses all of those states but wins PA and all of the other states that she appears to be winning now, then Nevada becomes the king / queen maker.
Here’s my hour by hour viewing guide (using EST as the default US time zone, also uses the latest closing time for states with multiple time zones)
6:00 PM. SC comes in with an easy win for Trump.
7:00 PM. Trump scoops up some low-hanging fruit in KY and IN, Hillary does the same with VT and VA. GA closes and if it isn’t called quickly for Trump, Hillary is having a good night.
7:30 PM. WV will be called for Trump exactly at 7:30. Two big bellwethers, OH and NC also close. I don’t look for either to be called at this point, but we start keeping our eye on the returns from these states. If Hillary wins both, it’s over.
8:00 PM. It starts getting real. Early calls for Trump in MS, OK, AL, MO, and TN. Easy wins for Hillary in DE, DC, ME, RI, CT, MD, MA, NJ, and IL. We won’t have calls yet, but start watching returns in NH, OH, PA, and FL. GA should finally check in for Trump. Still too early for OH and NC.
8:30 PM. AR gets called immediately for Trump.
9:00 PM. Easy wins for Trump in SD, WY, NE, KS, TX, and LA. Clinton sweeps up NY, MI, MN, WI, CO, and NM. AZ starts to come in and if it takes a while to call it, good for Hillary. We should start seeing some calls for NH, OH, PA, and FL.
10:00 PM. Early calls for Trump in UT and MT. Clinton should win NV easily. IA is the sticky wicket here- another one where no early call is good for Hillary.
11:00 PM. Trump gets ID. Hillary sweeps CA, OR, WA, and HI. This is when the presidential call will be official, assuming Hillary gets PA and FL called for her by then. Hillary goes on about 11:30 to declare victory, Trump slithers off into the darkness from whence he came.
1:00 AM. Trump gets AK. We should have the final count by then.
Ill be voting around 5pm…and drinking at 5:15.
A lot. 