What will happen when the Dalai Lama dies?

Factual Questions
1

Reading that China will boycott the Nobel Peace Prize party (which tells me that the NPP committee finally got it right) I was curious what will happen when the Dalai Lama dies. Traditionally, the Pachen Lama will lead the search for the new DL, but the one that the Dalai Lama chose was arrested at age 6 for treason (not a misprint) and replaced by Peking.

With it clear that Llasa (in exile) and Peking will never be able to compromise, what system is in place to find the next DL. On a side note, will the Chinese (as opposed to Tibetan) Pachen or the Golden Urn pick a DL that coincidently sympathizes with Peking?

2

The current 14th Dalai Lama has previously stated that he would chose not to reincarnate to avoid this problem.

However it looks like he might decide another way, reincarnate while still alive. Tibetan Buddhism doesn’t really believe in souls, or in individual ego so thats not quite as unlikely as it sounds.

3

What’s probably going to happen in practice is that you’ll get two Dalai Lamas, one picked by China and the other by the Tibetan exile community.

4

The Dalai Cria takes over, I’d assume.