Perhaps…if he is convicted, arrested and in jail a couple of months ahead of the election, and not allowed special compensation regarding communication to the masses. Otherwise you have created a “King in exile” and any proportion of around 2-1 is a pipe dream.
I think that this is the most likely outcome, with Trump hanging on to leadership despite losing two in a row being a close second, but I disagree with the bothsiderist view that this is equally a Republican and Democratic problem.
There are structual difference in the Republican party that make it more prone to implosion. First unlike the Democrat primary voting base which consists of a majority of mainstream moderates with a more strongly progressive fringe, in the Republican party is primarly made of full on crazy with a small number of moderates hanging on primarily due to inertia. So even if the party bosses wanted a moderate conservative leader who won’t scare the normies, the voters won’t let them.
Second the Republican party’s current ideology revolves around rejecting any sort of compromise and norms of civility, and depends on feelings of grievance and conspiratorial thinking. So every individual is their won faction rather than unite behind a prospective leader would prefer to drag them down claims of cheating a voter fraud.
A third of his supporters will think that the Democrats killed him, a third will deny that he’s dead, the remaining third will somehow believe both those things simultaneously. All will be profoundly disappointed three days after his demise.
Personally I think the biggest F-you Trump could offer to the system right now would be to die. If he dies, all of his legal troubles go away and I would imagine most of the trickiest questions never end up getting answered. Can a President throw an insurrection on live TV and then run for office again? Can the President order SEAL Team 6 to assassinate his opponents? Can the President commit any and all crimes he pleases while in office simply because? Seems like questions that should have an obvious answers but if Trump was gone, we need not know. Et cetera for all the other shitbaggery he has pending before the Supreme Court right now. If he’s not around any longer, they can just dismiss it all. So Trump does have any easy solution to all of his problems that will create endless problems for everyone else. All he has to do is… well, you know.
I thought it was Ramensalami?
Seriously though, I think there’ll be a great wailing and rending of garments by the Right immediately after he dies, and there’ll probably be a diarrhea-like flood of glurgey art and keepsakes on the market, as well as a bunch of tearful eulogies by people who he did nothing for but insult them. The QAnon loons will probably claim that a Jewish Space Laser finally got him through the top of the head and his magnificent head of natural hair failed to protect him.
If he’s in office, we could see a truly obnoxious spectacle for his funeral, if whatever kills him is something that didn’t surprise him. I could totally see a massive military parade costing millions, as well as some sort of live music act, etc… Certainly not the dignified ceremonies of recently passed ex-Presidents like Bush I, Reagan, Ford, and Nixon. I am intensely curious to see if the sitting President or any ex-Presidents show up, regardless of party.
In the medium term, the Republican candidates will fight each other about who’s Trumper-than-Thou, but I sort of doubt any of the current crop has the chutzpah or cojones to actually act like him. They’re all career politicians and realize the value of playing politics in a way that Trump, as an ostensibly rich man and someone utterly self-centered, never has.
In the long term, I think he’ll be like Reagan, but more so. People will talk wistfully about Trump in 2060, as if he was amazingly awesome, and there’ll be Franklin Mint plates, and weird vaguely sacrilegious idols and artifacts that people will happily buy.
Your questions immediately brought to mind the opening of The Odd Couple. Anyone else?
Moderating:
This comment has nothing to do with the subject under discussion and will very likely create a hijack. Stop now, please.
Altho I have little doubt he will be convicted- his legal scheme seems to be just trying to delay and setting up potential appeals.
I don’t think that Trump will serve actual prison time due to current court cases scheduled and on-going, but I hope to all that is decent and humane that I am wrong.
Ghod, I hope that I am wrong.
donald’s father lived to 93, but had dementia for the last years of his life.
donald won’t go away until he’s either dead or too demented to appear publicly anymore. (And I predict that either of those happens within a year of him going to prison, it that is indeed where he ends up).
At that point, I think his brand of politics perishes with him. Nazism wasn’t going to persist after Hitler died; and maga republicanism is similarly rooted in one specific cult of personality.
That’s not to say the sentiments he espoused will go away. But we’ve long had bigots and morons in this country.
Actually, what I think he tapped into was the last gasp of an America where white people are a majority. In short order, that won’t be the case (plurality? Sure; but not the majority), and this surge of cohesive bigotry will finally dissipate as the country adjusts to this new normal, where women and minorities are seen in positions of authority yet the sky does not fall.
He was too demented to appear publicly any more eight years ago.
Mrs. Cretin and I are in our 70’s and feel the same way.
Overall I agree w @bump’s post a few above mine. But as to this:
If trump dies in office, the sitting President was his veep a few days before. That person will need to give fealty to the memory of trumpism at least for awhile. The MAGAts in politics and the MAGAts amongst the voting public won’t get over their love of trump overnight.
All ex-presidents of the right will attend because of the same logic. They are Rs, and Rs give respect to Rs. All ex-Presidents of the Ds will attend because its the proper thing to do for the country. Not the party; the country.
I would agree with this general outline of thinking if the population of whites and nonwhites were evenly distributed across the country and if political power was evenly distributed between urban and rural areas of large and small states. Which is manifestly not true in the real world.
You’re correct about the trajectory of the US total population. But there are states that will be heavily white male majority for another 50 years. And longer than that if they can enact enough anti-minority laws or emplace enough anti-minority public behaviors. Within almost all 50 states there will be significant areas just like that too, and for many decades into the future.
As long as the US political system gives outsized power to underpopulated rural regions, the power of white males at the ballot box will greatly exceed their actual numbers. Which of course is on top of their power coming from controlling the bulk of the dollars.
Their perception of being a surrounded group under attack will only grow stronger, not weaker, as the national demographic changes play out.
As has often been said:
If the right can’t win by democratic means, they will abandon democracy before they abandon their goals.
I’m looking forward to taunting and mocking MAGAts, and their actual fucking love for this asshole, even as their tears flow. I’ll never not be astonished at how the whole R party fell all over themselves to idolize an ignorant weirdo with zero redeeming qualities. I was going to say something about the unlikelihood of anybody else in the MAGAt Party becoming a cult figure, but who would have thought a braggadocious real estate con artist like trump would ever be so worshipped? I hope whoever buys Trump Tower has the Golden Escalator removed and reduced to scrap metal.
Yeh - that’s my hope as well. But as LSL astutely observes, our federal system is set up to amplify the impact of certain demographics.
God, could you imagine being Obama at this event? Trying to look somber the whole day…
When (hopefully) Trump loses later this year the MAGA movement will continue, but losing adherents over time. Unfortunately those adherents remaining will become more radical and dangerous. There will also be a fight for control of them, Trump among the contenders until he finds something else to do or passes away. But if he wants to retain control he will as long as he can get hold of a microphone.
Indeed this is an important thing to bear in mind. The oft-seen claim that simple demographics doom the Right tends to overlook these systemic advantages that mean they have time on the clock and time-outs available to make plays to freeze the score and embed their advantages (besides overlooking that yes, goddammit, there will be Urban/Women/Minority/hell yes even YOUNG voters who will embrace populist nationalism out of single-issue criteria; not every dead old rural WM means 1 less vote for that side).
I suspect if any ex-Presidents show up, it would be more out of respect for the office, not political reasons. Even though W couldn’t quite bring himself to publicly endorse Biden, he’s said enough other stuff for everyone to understand that he’s not wild at all about Trumpism.
It also neglects the idea that people’s outlooks tend to change with age. There have always been a lot of twenty-something liberals who turn into forty-something conservatives.
And to the rest of your point, I think the notion that Hispanics are going to vote reliably Democrat is false. Many of them are very conservative, socially and economically. If the racist element is removed, or they feel like the conservative/macho element is more important, they’ll vote Republican in larger numbers than a lot of people really would think. That’s a big part of why Texas is not reliably purple and a swing state. Not the only part, but a non-trivial reason nonetheless.
Of course, a Republican Party without the racist element would be a very different beast than what we have now. The process of getting from here to there would almost certainly have other knock-on effects on the party, such that them acquiring new voters from such demographics would not be a disaster.