To be fair, someone in the sitting US government and Democratic Party should admit that the time for a Syrian NFZ and some other forms of intervention came and went and now we’ll deal with what there is instead of with what would have been.
Back to Finland: as mentioned elsewhere there is really no motivation for Russia, especially under Putin, to intervene militarily in Finland. It has been a perfectly nice neutral neighbor for decades and they could more easily just finance a more friendly political movement to be elected. But if they did attack, it’s not a NATO country plus it is at the far fringe of the scope of action. The flanks are covered by the Baltic states NATO but weak, and neutral Sweden, with a remote Arctic point of contact with Norway. Not damn much that could be done unless somehow Finland pulls off another Winter War type performance, giving time for serious material aid to arrive and external alliances to be assembled. Which this time around would make the government in Moscow teeter.
In Putin’s calculus, in some of the peripheral friction points it is “safer” to be seen as favoring a side or provoking events or seeking to influence outcomes, but without getting into it all the way, than it would be to really go all-in openly with force and risk it going badly which includes winning at too high cost.
East and West Germany were critically important for the security and ideological interests of the Soviet Union and the United States respectively. The modern international order was created when the Soviet Union and United States teamed up to destroy Nazi Germany, the GDR and Federal Republic were supposed to be showcases of the wonder of socialism and capitalism respectively, and so forth. I can totally believe that the future of Germany was a question of existential importance to both the USSR and the United States, and they would both have gone to war over Germany. I don’t think either Clinton, Putin, or anyone else think that the future of Syria is a matter of existential importance that’ worth risking a world war over.
Russia would probably risk war with the United States over the Ukraine, absolutely. Syria, not so much. (And as much as I dislike Hillary Clinton, I don’t really think she wants a shooting war over Syria either).
She got asked this directly in the third debate. Does her dodge to the question inspire you with confidence? Her Syrian plan is at least as detached from reality and dangerous as anything Donald Trump has proposed. My only hope (and it’s the same hope I have for Donald Trump) is that should she win the election, the military leaders will talk her off the ledge before she does anything too stupid.
Your interpretation of that remark was “Hell yes we’re gonna shoot down the Russkis if they don’t back off!”?
No, she was “Hey, let’s get the Russians to agree that this is a good idea.” If you think her plan for getting the Russians to agree that a no-fly zone is a good idea is to shoot down Russian planes, then, well, I guess that’s what you think.
If your complaint is that when asked if she was gonna shoot down Russian planes she didn’t just simply say “No”, then whatever.
It is perfectly clear that even if Clinton really does want to impose a no-fly zone in Syria it would have to be in cooperation with the Russkis. No Russian cooperation, no no-fly zone. Your interpretation that Clinton wants to bomb the Russians is completely divorced from reality.
It is my belief that Irak, Lybia and Syria all happened as efforts to maintain the value of the dollar.
Perhaps even what’s going on in the Ukraine.
My fear is the US has been gearing up for a war against Russia ever since they teamed up with China to set up alternative financial systems.
If this is indeed true, we are in for some deep shit. We will find out pretty soon, is my estimate.
I highly doubt that the US would want to go nuclear but I suspect that they believe they can beat the Russian army and deal enough of a blow to have them aquiesce.
Oh, and it doesn’t matter who the president will be, they are not the ones in charge.
Yes, it’s scary as hell that someone likely to be our next president couldn’t answer “Are you going to shoot down Russian planes” with a simple “No”. If you don’t think that’s scary, then I don’t know what to tell you.
How does invading Russia prop up the global financial system? Isn’t it likely to, you know, cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, even if somehow the war could magically be kept from going nuclear? And then after the war, the disruption of the normal economy would take decades to recover from.
I know that somehow Americans have the idea that war is great for the economy, but that’s just because during WWI and WWII the war never actually took place on the American mainland. No mainland US cities were bombed, no factories destroyed, no infrastructure ruined, no housing destroyed, no supply chains int interrupted, no starving refugees everywhere, no bridges and train stations and power plants in ruins. How’s that going to work out for us when we’re beating the Russian army into submission, somehow, somewhere overseas?
Also, the notion that the Russkis are teaming up with the Chinese, and that we could stop them by beating the Russians is laughable. Russia is a large country, but it’s really really poor and its economy is in a shambles. China is also a large country, with five times the population of Russia, with an economy that’s doing pretty good, although they have all sorts of intractable unsolvable problems that can’t be wished away just by another decade of economic growth.
And if the Illuminati don’t care who becomes President, shouldn’t they at least put up boring consensus business as usual candidates on both sides? Why allow people like Hillary and Trump to run? Wouldn’t they be better off with Joe Biden vs Mike Pence? Is that so hard to engineer?
The Russians would never agree to “impose a no-fly zone in Syria”. This is a delusional, insane theory. They’ve been bombing Aleppo (using Aleppo here as a stand-in for anti-Assad forces) precisely to keep Assad in power. You think they’re going to suddenly turn around and help us destroy Assad’s anti-air network and shoot down Assad’s jets and helicopters, and quit bombing Aleppo? That’s what imposing a no-fly zone in cooperation with Russia would look like, and it’s never going to happen. It’s delusional thinking.
It’s not scary, because the answer is obviously no. Would it make you feel better if I promise to never, ever, under any circumstances sneak into your house at night and murder your family and burn everything down and plant evidence that you did it? No, because the mere act of denying that I would do such a thing makes you wonder if I’m going to do such a thing. Denying it makes it seem like she was considering it.
Then I guess we won’t actually have a no-fly zone over Aleppo then. This could never happen as long as the Russians still want to bomb anti-Assad forces, but perhaps at some point they’ll figure they’ve bombed everything worth bombing and we can let some humanitarian aid in. Or not. Point is, without Russian cooperation there’s no such thing as a no-fly zone.
The whole idea of a “no-fly zone” in the first place is that it’s a low-risk gesture on our part. We won’t actually send any actual help to the people on the ground, but we will let our pilots get some valuable target practice against the aging Syrian air force, if they dare to sortie anything, which they wouldn’t. The no-fly zone is a meaningless gesture that lets us feel like we’re doing something, as long as it doesn’t cost us anything. Air to air combat against the Russkis is kind of the exact opposite of that.
Of course she’s considering it. That’s why media stories have been written about it all over the place from Al Jazeera to the Guardian, CNN, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, etc. So yes, in this case, a flat denial that she’d order Americans to shoot down Russians over Syria would be worthwhile. And she was given precisely such an opportunity and she demurred. How do you think the Russians took that? “Oh, OK, everything’s going to be fine because when Clinton got asked point blank whether she’d shoot down our jets she hemmed and hawed and didn’t really answer the question.” Frankly, with non-answers like that, I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia really was trying to influence the election.
If you think Hillary Clinton is insane, then whatever. She’s not going to give orders to shoot down Russian warplanes over Aleppo. That you think she might possibly do this is crazy. What exactly is supposed to be the goal? To give some relief to the miserable refugees in Syria, at no cost to the US, yes? And how the fuck does shooting down Russian warplanes accomplish this? It won’t help starving Syrian kids, and it will be disastrous for the United States. The only reason you think she’s likely to do this is that you’ve been consuming a steady diet of right-wing media for the last 25 years.
A no-fly zone means (threatening to, and if necessesary,) shooting down hostile aircraft. If you’re not doing that, you don’t have a no-fly zone, you have a “please don’t fly” request. That latter option may be what HRC wants, but it’s not what she said. She said “no-fly zone”. If it’s not what she meant, she should be a whole hell-of-a-lot-more-precise with her language, and given the chance to walk it back, like she had in the third debate, she damn well should.
Your credibility would be higher if you could spell Iraq or Libya correctly.
I’m curious who you think is in charge if not the President. Certainly the President is not an absolute dictator and relies on lots of specialists to create and implement decisions. But by and large they are the policymaker in chief of the US government. You seem to be asserting somebody else is pulling their strings. Who might that be?
When I went to Russia, everyone seemed to have this more aggressive attitude about anything and everything. It’s crazy, if one lane has cars on it…create a new lane lol.
Talk of creating the no-fly-zone is hot air from HRC but she cannot walk it back because it’s one of the talking points to whatever’s left of the neocon faction to prove something about how a Woman CinC can be tough. She must know that it’s a nonstarter (even more so now that we may be losing the Turks). But since when has that stopped a politician from talking a big game.
You’re right, that is a great argument against the fix being in. What possible profit can those pulling strings from behind the curtain see in bringing down the house atop their own heads.
Mrs Clinton absolutely, certainly would try and be more aggressive wrt Russia. She is a Goldwater Girl after all ;). She is also much more relevantly, a Liberal interventionist, and increased involvement in Syria is a given.
All of that is seriously destabilising
Irak is a commen alternative spelling. Lybia is indeed spelled the wrong way, my humble apologies.
I don’t know. Not “the jews” or the “Illuminati” but US foreign policy seems too consistent over the decades to be up to just however happens to be president.