Morbid question, sure, but …
Suppose it gets to be July or August, and Bush or whichever dem gets the nomination (probably Kerry) are out campaigning and they suffer a fatal accident/medical problem. Their plane crashes or they have heart attack, something along those lines.
What would happen to the election?
If Bush were to die, Cheney would become president and have to face Kerry (or whoever).
If it happens early enough in the year, a replacement candidate would be selected, probably in a convention.
That said, it offers an interesting question: Who would the Reps pick?
Cheney would of course become president, but there is no of course about his being the nominee. The national committee of whichever party would choose a new nominee, most likely the vice-presidential candidate, and especially more likely the closer it was to the election.
Back in 2000, The Democratic candidate for Senate in Missouri, Carnahan, died just days before the election. It turned out that state law prohibited changing the ballot that late, so his name stayed on there. And he won. The governor of Missouri then got to select the actual Senator, and the seat went to Carnhan’s wife.
What’s interesting is the psychological effect in cases like that. Directly after someone dies, might voter’s be more likely to forgive and ignore minor failings?
Just to mention, the Republican candidate was John Ashcroft.
-Lil
Well yes, that’s one thing that would happen (although I’m not sure Cheney would be supported by his party, though) but what about the media? Voters? Legislators, even? How would they react?
Having already voted for one dead man (hey, he scared me less than Ashcroft), I’m prepared to vote for another dead Democrat if need be.
Better a dead Democrat than a live Republican, I think.
Maybe Congress would be less corrupt if all of our elected officials were dead.
T.R. FOR PRESIDENT!
The Minnesota Example:
A similar happened again here in Minnesota in 2002. Senator Paul Wellstone was in a tight re-election campaign against Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul. Paul’s plane crashed on October 27th in bad weather, as he was flying to a funeral in northern Minnesota. All aboard, including his wife, Sheila Wellstone, his daughter, and several campaign aides died.
The race was extremely tight, although most agree that Paul was pulling slightly ahead in the last days of the race. He was adored by the DFL (Democratic Farmer-Labor) party faithful.
A memorial service was organized and held at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. If I recall correctly, something like 40-50 thousand people turned out. The service was televised statewide. The crowd was extremely emotional and filled with devoted and passionate DFL party members and supporters. Some members of the crowd booed as some of the national Republican leaders (like Trent Lott) entered the auditorium. Paul’s surviving sons gave very emotional and moving eulogies of their lost family members. Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa also gave a wonderful eulogy to Paul. In addition, a close friend and former student of Paul, Rick Kahn, gave a speech. Kahn’s body language gave the impression of stiffness and anger, and he gave a speech that, at the time, even I felt was inappropriate to the situation. The speech was a call to win the election for Paul.
Minnesota’s election laws are different from Missouri’s, and the DFL was compelled to find a replacement candidate for the election. The day after the memorial service, the DFL Central Committee met in Minneapolis and Vice President Mondale was nominated, after he was asked to run by Paul’s sons. Only one week remained until Election Day.
In the midst of this, a backlash was brewing over the partisan tenor of parts of the previous evening’s memorial service. The Republican party faithful was energized and outraged, and donations poured into the Coleman campaign. At the same time, the Mondale campaign was short of money, as they couldn’t use the funds that were raised for Paul, and Mondale had to be re-introduced to the state after 16 years out of the public eye.
The ballots were reprinted with Mondale’s name on them. Dark whispers of another Florida-style election debacle were bandied about as it was realized that absentee ballots could not be sent out in time, and that any ballots that were marked for Paul would be spoiled unless the voter asked for an ammended ballot.
The backlash from the memorial service continued on AM radio and in the rest of the media, as Coleman attempted to stay above the fray and any criticisms of the memorial. His campaign learned from Ashcroft’s mistakes in 2000 and coasted to a comfortable victory- 50% Coleman, 47% Mondale. His margin of over 50,000 votes helped to avoid a repeat of Florida.
The Original Question:
The situation in this presidential scenario would be a mess, and much of it would depend on how close to the election the death occurred. If the death happened before the convention, the convention would simply choose a new candidate, and the campaign would resume. (Presumably, but not necessarily, the Vice Presidential candidate.)
As we get closer and closer to the election, however, things quickly get messier. The party’s Central Comittee (or whatever they might be called at a national level), would meet and select a new candidate. The situation of the ballots would have to be resolved at a state-by-state basis. Some states prohibit the changing of ballots within a certain amount of time before the election (Missouri, if I recall correctly, requires 30 days). Others, like Minnesota, allow the Secretary of State to change the ballots up until 3 days before the election. So some states might list the new candidate, while other states might still list the deceased candidate.
There is an important distinction with presidential politics, though. Although most of us commonly understand we are voting for John Democrat or George Republican, in actuality, we are voting for Jane Democrat or Sam Republican to be our elector in the Electoral College. It is these individuals who actually vote for President. These individuals can, for the most part*, vote for whomever they like. So even if you were a resident of a place like Missouri, confronted with a ballot that listed a dead candidate, your elector would simply vote for the replacement candidate for the party that won your state’s election.
*(Yes, I understand that some states have penalties for “Faithless Electors,” but nobody’s going to be enforcing those laws in this situation.)
I got my numbers on the attendance at the Wellstone memorial service. It looks like it actually was somewhat in excess of 20,000.
Amen.
I almost was tempted (slightly) to vote for Gus Hall in 2000(he had died that October) for the exact same reason.
Don’t forget 1972, when Tom Eagleton dropped off the Democratic ticket.
The Democratic National Committee met and appointed Sargent Shriver as the VP nominee (one assumes, with the blessing of George McGovern).
Despite the consternation that would ensue, the process quite simple, at least on paper.