What makes a big Obama win is how the makeup of Congress changes. If Obama wins by one electoral vote but Democrats widen their lead in the Senate and pick up a lot of ground in the House, that would mean a lot more than a win by 100+ EVs and Congress remaining mostly the same.
BTW, Nate is forecasting the Dems keep the Senate at 87.6% and right now has it at 52.4 seats form the Dems.
People are kinda counting their chickens aren’t they?
I remember people were talking about taking back the house before the first debate. Noone seems to be saying that anymore. If Obama had done as well during the first debate as he did in the other two, he would have had the coattails to pull it off. Now he’s holding on for dear life.
If we could post images like everywhere that isn’t this message board or Usenet, I would simply post to Nate Silver’s current prediction which gives Obama a 71% chance of victory.
To be fair, that’s not the 86.1% chance that he had on October 3rd, but neither is it the 61.1% chance that it dwindled to on October 12th.
Is an Obama victory guaranteed? Nope. Romney wins about 3 times in 10.
You get slightly better odds at Intrade right now than Silver has it. Same at Labbrokes. Go make some money.