Less than two weeks left to go, some polls are predicting a “big win” for Obama, others have it tight.
The common wisdom on the popular vote at the moment is said to be about 50 / 50
So what would YOU consider a “big win” for Obama?
a) Based on popular vote?
b) Based on electoral college?
I think there will be a number of factors, that at least should be considered. There is a certain proportion of the electorate that will vote against Obama not for the president he is, or the policies he pursues but for his colour. I think these should be discounted.
Of course, this will be balanced a little by some who will never vote for a Mormon.
If part of your criteria is “a gain over the last election” (which I do see some merit in) as you metric - I think you should adjust a little for this one not being a “first black man”. i.e - I do think that the primary attraction for Obama in 2008 was his message, there is also a significant number of people that chose him based solely on wanting to see the first black man elected.
So any thoughts? Just what will, in your mind, be a “big win” for Obama?
Any win. The Congressional makeup is more important. I guess a big win would be one big enough that his coat tails are likely due to his margin of winning, and not just people being pissed off at the GOP in general.
In the realm of the possible, 300+ EV’s would be a huge win for Obama; this would mean that of the states Obama won in 2008 he only lost IN, FL and NC.
When Obama is re-elected I will declare it a total mandate from the people of the United States and an overwhelming show of support for his agenda.
I will also post in Facebook for all my Tennessee friends that they should place all their firearms on their porches and someone will be along directly to confiscate them.
I’d say it’s a ‘big win’ if Obama takes all of the swing states, with the possible exceptions of NC and one of the smaller ones. This might well happen.
In terms of popular vote, a 4% margin of victory would be huge. It could happen, but I don’t expect it.
In practical terms, picking up a seat or two in the Senate would be a big win. (I think there’s a decent shot.) Retaking the House would be even bigger. (Not very likely.)
Early on, if Obama wins Florida then we know he has won and it would also be a precursor to a big EV victory. BTW, if you add up the states that are over 50% for Obama at 538 then Obama ends up with 303 EVs.
It won’t matter what his margin is in either the PV or the EC; the Pubbie opposition will be equally implacable and irresponsible since they don’t know any better anymore. A win is a win.
That’s it? Hmm…that’s interesting, as the most likely EV outcome (that is, the mode) is around 330 according to that site. I wonder what is making it come out that way.
This is bunk. A lot of people, especially conservatives, believe this; but it is almost certainly factually wrong and thus a huge insult to Obama. Academics who have studied the election closely believe the race was about two or three points *closer *than it would have been had there been a generic white male Democratic nominee. It was just a very bad year for Republicans to begin with, then the economic collapse and McCain’s response to it was poor, and Palin dragged down the ticket further.
Although I love Obama (and my fondness has not lessened one bit over the past four years BTW), this also implies that Democrats were lucky it was such a wave election, as they took a big risk nominating a young, inexperienced black ivory tower academic type who had ties to radicals and had a name that Jon Stewart memorably likened to “Gaydolf Titler”.
It’s also true that–again contrary to the conventional wisdom, but per the research of political scientists–a generic white guy would likely be more comfortably leading in the race for reelection given the same record and economic trends.
As my conservative friends are fond of saying “If Obama gets re-elected the only good thing that will happen is that the world will come to an end under a Democratic President (according to the Mayan calendar)”. Which only shows there ignorance; Obama will still be president in December even if he losses. And second, if the world comes to an end who is going to care.
If Obama gets 49.99% of the popular vote and still manages to win by even 1 electoral vote it is a mandate as far as I’m concerned. Time for the Supreme Court to retire and let Obama nominate a whole new set. Tea Partyers can then make start making good on their promises to form their own country. Might I suggest the North Pole in summer so that they can make some intelligent statements concerning global warming?
Any win for Obama would be big, given the nature of the opposition and the fact that the GOP in Congress were willing to try to tank the U.S. economy to keep Obama from winning.
I don’t think he cares (nor do I) how large the victory is, just that it is a victory. I, for one, am seriously getting nervous and jittery about all the crap that would come from a Romney victory.
I experienced first hand how quickly a leader can throw a state into turmoil when John Kasich was elected governor here, and in 6 months he caused more damage to the State of Ohio than I could have possibly imagined. Education has been decimated, and given Romney’s plan to cut public education budgets an additional 20%, it’s going to be very ugly. Then there’s that whole right wing agenda and the enormous social impacts, which are equally, if not more worrying.
I’m with Ludovic. A “big win” is one that carries the House and Senate with it. Ideally, I’d like a filibuster-proof Senate, but I don’t think that’s even possible this cycle, given how many Democrats are up for re-election vs. how many Republicans. For the electoral votes, any number 270 or up is fine.
I want Obama to win but I think Romney will. If Obama wins at all I think that is a “big” win. If they hold on to the Senate and gain any in the House I will consider that a huge win.